About a year ago, August 2021, Dr Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian Council for International Affairs (RIAC) wrote an opinion piece in which he rhetorically asked What Would Happen to a World Without the United States. That article was and still is inspiring and thought-provoking information. It offers insight into the need for global cooperation, peace and solidarity. It recalls Communist slogans: a world without nuclear, peace and development, friendship and international solidarity.
After the historic fall of the Soviet era, Russia really dreamed of increasing its status by joining an international organization. Over the past three decades, he has been a member of many global bodies, actively participating in the United Nations. In addition, Russia, however, created the Greater Eurasia Union, the BRICS – a group of countries consisting of Brazil, India, China and South Africa – and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). With the changes that have taken place, Russia has left several foreign organizations including, the Group of Eight (G-8), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the European Court of Human Rights. (ECHR). There is currently a heated debate whether to let him out of the Group of Twenty (G-20).
The report emphatically emphasizes that the course of events is irreversible. According to one report: “Russia does not intend to tolerate the subversive actions taken by the collective West to establish a rules-based order to replace international law being trampled on by the United States and its satellites.” But today we are close to the beginning of nuclear war. The world economy is in shambles, with soaring prices, oil and gas supply deficits to several parts of the world. The world has all the untapped natural resources to make people’s lives sustainable, but it is now estimated that half of the global population is under unbearable fear and pressure, most struggling to make a living.
Instead this article seeks to focus specifically on Russia and the world. We try to imagine what would happen to the world of Russia without the United States and Europe. Relationships have improved in recent years and are almost on the verge of complete collapse. Another Cold War indeed, reminiscent of earlier ideological confrontations between East and West. We imagine today’s Russia without two powers; United States and Europe.
What would happen to Russia without the United States and Europe? In his article published on the RIAC website last August 2021, Dr Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian Council for International Affairs (RIAC) offers a definition or description of the United States which is often referred to as an “indispensable state.”
The term was first used in January 1997 by President Bill Clinton in his second inaugural address. And after that, Madeleine Albright would mention it in her speeches and writings on many occasions after that. The idea underlying “incompetence” here is that it suggests that it is impossible to maintain even relative order in the world – let alone solve fundamental global and regional problems – without the United States. “It seems no coincidence that the currency emerged and gained traction at a time when we live in an almost completely unipolar world, when US influence and authority around the world has risen to unprecedented heights in such a very short period of time. time,” he wrote in his article.
The situation is now developing differently and how much is needed for the United States and Europe. Can we do it, due to some circumstances, without them today? Russia, over the last few months withdrew from a number of international organizations, and therefore moved into self-isolation. Russia travels the world to make alliances against the United States and Europe. It led new alliances to create a new world political and economic order. But, what will happen to Russia if the Federation Council and the State Duma pass laws to prohibit the use of Western and European languages, such as English and French, out of absolute hatred for the hegemony of the two regions. What if Russia had to ban the use of English, especially in its educational institutions, throughout the Russian Federation.
Russian-European-United States cultural and educational cooperation finally collapsed. It has crippled and ridiculed work with civil society. Russia has closed the British Council, the American Educational Council with its Future Leaders Exchange (FLEX) program, and the Alliance Franaise and Geothe Institute. It is the largest cultural network in the UK, USA, France and Germany. While Russia struggles with its own non-profit NGO, Russkiy Mir who is primarily tasked with popularizing the Russian language, literature and Russian culture around the world, Russia feels the need to stop the non-political and non-profit educational branches of the West operating under their diplomatic. mission in the Russian Federation.
The FLEX program, created as the best way to ensure long-term peace and mutual understanding between the U.S. and Eurasian countries, enables young people, more than 35,000 students who compete each year, to learn about the United States, and to teach Americans about their country. , mostly from former Soviet republics. This educational and cultural center has practically helped thousands of Russian students, with government-sponsored grants, to acquire comparative knowledge in various academic fields abroad. While some, after the training program, still remain abroad, others return to contribute their quota to sustainable development in Russia.
What would happen to Russia without the United States and Europe? The involvement of US corporate business is in no way commensurate with Russia’s economic footprint in the United States. On April 29, 2021, President Vladimir Putin held a videoconference with the leaders of several French-member companies of the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI France-Russia) to discuss several aspects of Russian-French trade, economic and investment cooperation. , including the implementation of major joint projects as well as prospects for cooperation in the Russian Federation.
From historical records, France has been and remains a major economic partner for Russia, holding 6th place among EU countries (the European Union consists of 27 member states) in the amount of accumulated investment in the Russian economy and 5th place in trade volume. . More than 500 companies with French capital operate in various sectors of the Russian economy. Despite a certain decline in joint trade in 2020, the final figure is quite acceptable at US$13 billion. French investment in Russia is around US$17 billion, while Russian investment in France is only US$3 billion.
There are EU countries like UK, Germany, Netherlands, Italy and Spain playing a significant economic role in Russia. Their level of business is much higher than that of Russia in Europe. Undeniably, Russia is just an energy supplier, but its economic involvement is relatively small. Many Western and European Union companies have suspended their business operations. Kremlin authorities and Russia say the United States and the European Union bloc are taking systematic and well-thought-out steps to destabilize the Russian economy. Several “systematic, very serious measures that correspond to the extraordinary hostile conditions imposed on us by hostile acts (of other countries), well-thought-out actions,” are being taken, Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, said in a statement. one media conference. .
‘United Russia’ – Russia’s largest political party, which supports President Putin’s policies – has proposed the nationalization of Western companies that refuse to operate in the Russian Federation. On March 7, Secretary of the General Council of United Russia Andrey Turchak said that the state legislative commission approved an initiative that provides for the possibility of nationalizing the property of foreign companies leaving the Russian market.
On the other hand, Dr. Kortunov proposes to conduct a thought experiment: imagine if the United States completely abandoned world politics, violated all international treaties to which Washington was a party, relinquished all the obligations that the country had performed, withdrew from all global organizations. and regionally, closing borders, closing embassies and consulates, freezing immigration and suspending all communications with the outside world until things looked better, focusing all his attention on building a shining biblical city on a hill.
Dr Kortunov’s Question: What Would Happen to the World if the United States were removed from the map? First of all, there will be only one nuclear superpower left in the world, and that will be Russia. Thus, the last foundation of US-Russia bilateral strategic arms control will crumble. It is unlikely that other nuclear powers would be interested in negotiating with Moscow over nuclear weapons, because the gap between Russia and all other players is too big. It is even less likely that Moscow will agree to give up its unique nuclear advantage over the rest of the world. However, unconditional nuclear superiority does not automatically mean that Moscow will be able to freely dictate its will in global politics. Other nations’ nuclear weapons would continue to be an effective instrument of deterrence, and war between members of the “nuclear club” would be as senseless as it is today.
That said, nuclear proliferation is likely to worsen significantly. In the absence of “extended deterrence” from the United States, many of its former allies and partners will think about acquiring nuclear weapons of their own. This mainly implies countries in East Asia (Japan, South Korea and Taiwan) and the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt). The idea of building a nuclear arsenal may also apply in Germany. About five or six new nuclear powers could emerge in a short period of time.
While it is unlikely that nuclear proliferation in East Asia will lead to a sharp escalation of military and political risks, the emergence of new nuclear states in the Middle East will be fraught with dire consequences – both for the region and for the international community as a whole. Nonetheless, we must admit that the threat of nuclear proliferation persists to this day, and this can in large part be due to the United States’ approach to resolving issues related to Iran’s nuclear program.
The question is: Can NATO Survive in a World Without the United States? Theoretically, yes, but only if the great European powers – Britain, Germany, and France – put maximum political, economic and military effort into it. The remaining nations in the bloc will have to increase their defense contribution by more than the two percent Washington confirmed today to around four or five percent. Even this, however, would not offset the losses NATO would incur as a result of the US withdrawal. Without American leadership, NATO would likely turn into a regional military and political instrument of the European Union – while London’s role in the organization would be unclear as it is no longer in the European Union – and NATO would have a much simpler role in the world. business from today. Without the United States, it is unlikely that NATO will continue to pursue its current global ambitions, and the remaining members may be somewhat reluctant to expand the organization’s zone of geographical responsibility relentlessly.
In a world without the United States, China would almost automatically become the undisputed leader in global technology. Although Europe, Japan, India and Southeast Asian countries will likely have a greater incentive to join forces to challenge China’s hegemony in this area. With this in mind, it’s hard to say whether it would be possible to create a global technology ecosystem independent of Beijing without the United States. This will largely depend on how rigid or flexible Beijing’s actual hegemony will be and the extent to which China will succeed in avoiding monopolizing new technologies that are fundamental to the global community at large.
Dr Kortunov writes that the euro will definitely become the main reserve currency once the dollar exits the global financial system. The Chinese yuan is not fully convertible, meaning it will be a long time before China can compete with the European Union on finance. Other global currencies – such as the British pound, Japanese yen and Swiss franc – could be important. The European and Asian financial centers (London, Frankfurt, Shanghai, Singapore, etc.) will receive additional strong incentives for development.
International financial institutions (the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the International Monetary Fund), in which the United States has traditionally played a leading role, will undergo major – and possibly very painful – reforms. As a side note, we would argue that the United Nations will also experience a deep institutional crisis, losing its current headquarters in New York and approximately 22 percent of its statutes, as well as the US contribution to individual UN departments and programs. The Arctic Council will suffer less, because America’s Arctic sector is much smaller than Russia and Canada. What’s more, the United States has not ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which complicates Washington’s position on the Arctic Council somewhat.
The absence of the United States in the world energy market could lead to a temporary revival of OPEC and a strengthening of Russia’s position. However, the “green” and “shale” revolution will continue. Washington’s departure from the global arms and groceries market would also result in a significant restructuring of these markets. Even with the concerted efforts of the remaining players, the gap left by the United States in the arms market will be extremely difficult to fill.
With Hollywood no longer at the center of the global film industry, the cities that once held that position – especially Paris and Rome – will have the opportunity to relive their former cinematic glory. However, European filmmakers will face stiff competition in the global entertainment market from Indian filmmakers and, in particular, Chinese origins. New York’s disappearance from world fashion will give a second wind to Paris and Milan, while Britain will probably be the center of musical life for a long time. .
According to Dr Kortunov, the departure of Apple – as well as the iPhone and MacBook – from the portable electronics market will create a void that the dozen largest electronics giants in China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will struggle to fill. America’s self-imposed isolation will send shockwaves through higher education and science markets globally to reverberate for decades to come.
Naturally, the world would not stop. It would have survived the departure of the United States just as it survived the extinction of the dinosaurs and woolly mammoths. It will be difficult and very uncomfortable at first, especially for the international players who have been hiding in the shadow of the American superpower for decades. The withdrawal of the United States will lead to a number of crises and conflicts and a long period of instability and uncertainty as the struggle for the “American heritage” is sure to be long and tense. Somehow, we can still make it through! Plus, the world has seen Washington as an unpredictable and unreliable partner during Donald Trump’s presidency. It would actually be easier to solve certain problems without Washington, because the US is often part of the problem rather than part of the solution.
According to Dr Kortunov, the world will miss the United States. “We will lose American optimism, American energy, and American drive. We will miss Manhattan’s tall buildings, the narrow streets of the French Quarter in New Orleans and the vast prairies of the Great Plains. We will miss the country music, Chicago-style steaks, and Californian nutmeg chardonnay. We will miss Halloween, Thanksgiving and, maybe, Independence Day. Just as the whole world will miss Russia, Argentina, Ethiopia and New Zealand. Each country is unique and indispensable in its own way. In this regard, the United States is truly an indispensable country,” he stressed in his conclusion.
European Russia accounts for about 75% of the total Russian population. But further demographic documents show that 1.8 million Russians live in the European Union (the majority in the UK, Germany and France), 1.3 million Russians live in the United States (the majority in New York and Washington) and in Canada. Both the United States and Canada, and the European Union have provided better living conditions for Russians than American, Canadian and European citizens (in fact a very small number) living in the Russian Federation.
But then, the rhetorical question is: What Really Happened to Russia Without the United States and Europe? Can Russia lead the emerging global economic order? Is Russia ready to support developing countries where the United States and Europe have failed? Is Moscow a financial center and host to representative offices of international organizations such as in New York and Washington? Can Russia turn into a superpower with the characteristics of hegemony, and provide the same conditions for foreigners as the United States and Europe? Is this the end of the Russian American and European Dream?
Dr Andrey Kortunov’s typical question is: What Would Happen to a World Without the United States? Special thanks for the thought-provoking and thought-provoking question from Dr Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the RIAC. The Russian Council for International Affairs (RIAC) is a non-profit academic and diplomatic think tank founded in February 2010. RIAC makes the strengthening of peace, friendship and solidarity its direction of activity, and works closely with the state, the academic community, business and civil society in an effort to find solutions foreign policy on a variety of complex issues.
Germany has the highest Russian-speaking population outside the former Soviet Union, with about 3 million people. They are divided into three groups, from largest to smallest: ethnic Russian-speaking Germans (Aussiedlers), ethnic Russians, and Jews.
How much of UK gas comes from Russia?
Russia‘s dependence on fossil fuels. By 2021, imports from Russia will consist of 4% of gas used in the UK, 9% of oil and 27% of coal.
How much is Britain’s dependence on Russian gas? The UK does not depend on Russian natural gas, which makes up less than 4% of our supply. To see also : USA vs. Colombia – Football Match Report – June 25, 2022.
Where does the UK get most of its gas from?
Unlike other countries in Europe, the UK is completely independent of Russian gas supplies. Our single largest source of gas is from the British Continental Shelf and most of our imports come from reliable suppliers such as Norway.
Does UK get oil from Russia?
Britain has imported £220 million of Russian oil since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, according to analysis | Climate News | Sky News. See the article : Victory for asylum seekers in the US Supreme Court – USA.
How many nuclear power plants are in Ukraine?
Status of Nuclear Power Plants in Ukraine Ukraine has 15 Russian-designed nuclear power reactors at four sites that generate half of Ukraine’s electricity; seven units are currently in operation. To see also : FOS PM: Fanatics Eyes Sports Betting.
Where is the largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine? Of these, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, located near Enerhodar, southeastern Ukraine, is by far the largest, housing six reactors, each with a generating capacity of 950 megawatts, making it the largest in Europe.
How many nuclear power plants are there in Russia?
There are 439 nuclear reactors in operation worldwide by 2021, of which 38 are in Russia, an additional 42 are made with Russian nuclear reactor technology, and another 15 are under construction by the end of 2021 being built with Russian technology.
Does Ukraine have uranium?
Uranium resources and mining. Ukraine has modest recoverable uranium resources – 186,000 tU according to the 2020 edition of the IAEA ‘Red Book’, 73,000 tU of which can be obtained for under $80/kgU.
What is the status of war between Ukraine and Russia?
| Date | February 20, 2014 – present (8 years, 4 months, 2 weeks and 4 days) Russian invasion of Ukraine: February 24, 2022 – present (4 months and 2 weeks) |
|---|---|
| Location | Ukraine (with spillovers to Russia) |
| Status | Ongoing |
Why is the US allied with Ukraine? US aid to Ukraine is targeted to promote political and economic reforms and to meet pressing humanitarian needs. The US has consistently pushed for Ukraine’s transition to a democratic society with a prosperous market-based economy.
How much of Ukraine is occupied by Russia?
NASA says Russia occupies 22 percent of Ukraine’s agricultural land.
What is the issue between Russia and Ukraine?
Relations between the two countries became hostile after the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, which was followed by Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, and because of Russia’s support for the separatist fighters of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic in the war, a conflict that has killed more …
Is Crimea now part of Russia?
The new constitution affirms the Republic of Crimea as a democratic state within the Russian Federation and declares the two territories united and indivisible.
How far is the Russian army from Kiev?
“In some areas, units of the Russian Armed Forces are 35 kilometers (about 22 miles) from Kyiv,” Oleksandr Motuzyanyk told reporters at a press conference about the operational situation on the front lines.
When did Kiev separate from Russia? On November 7, 1917, it was transformed into an independent Ukrainian People’s Republic with the capital in Kiev. During this brief period of independence, the city experienced rapid growth in its cultural and political status.
Is Russia close to Ukraine?
Ukraine is bordered by Belarus to the north, Russia to the east, the Sea of Azov and Black Sea to the south, Moldova and Romania to the southwest, and Hungary, Slovakia and Poland to the west.
Is Kiev close to Russia?
Kyiv, also spelled Kiev, Kyyiv, or Russian Kiyev, is the main city and capital of Ukraine. A port on the Dnieper River (Dnipro) and a major railroad crossing, this is a city with an ancient and proud history.
