A version of this story first appeared in CNN’s Now in the Middle East newsletter, a thrice-weekly look at the region’s biggest stories. Sign up here.
ABU DHABI, UAE (CNN) – The United States and Iran could be heading for a summer of further escalation after indirect talks to restore the 2015 nuclear deal ended with no progress last week.
The talks – brokered by the European Union and hosted in Doha, Qatar – were the latest hope to nudge the two sides to an agreement as tensions mount over Iran’s nuclear program.
The two-day talks aimed to resolve remaining issues between the US and Iran. A senior American official said the talks had gone “backwards” but Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said on Saturday that “the path to diplomacy is open” and described the negotiations as “positive”.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister and top nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani said Sunday that the time and place for the next round of talks will be decided.
But as talks stall, Iran nears the amount of enriched uranium needed to build a nuclear bomb and is reducing cooperation with the United Nations nuclear regulator, raising the prospects of its opponents resorting to military options , to deter its nuclear capabilities.
CNN spoke to Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the Crisis Group, a Washington, D.C., think tank, about what might happen next.
As the talks ended with no progress, how likely is an escalation and what would it look like?
One thing is certain: the “no deal, no crisis” dynamic is unsustainable. With so much friction between Iran, the US and their respective regional allies, there is plenty of room for escalations, intentional or unintentional, that could spiral out of control. All of this should make the summer of 2022 [into a summer] quite similar to the summer of 2019, when tensions flared in the form of heightened sanctions and attacks on international shipping lanes and infrastructure in the Gulf Arab States, bringing Tehran and Washington in the course of just dangerously close to an open conflict several times over the past few months.
The only difference now is that due to the ongoing dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the competitive arena is likely to shift to the Levant.
Does lack of progress in Doha mean deal is dead?
Not necessarily. A failure in this round could turn diplomacy with Iran into a zombie process for a while. Both sides will return home, likely engaging in mutual escalation in hopes that the other side will eventually blink first. But the closer we get to midterm congressional elections, the less likely the Biden administration’s appetite for a deal will wane. The problem is that the Democrats will inevitably lose control of Congress in November, which in turn will diminish Iran’s interest in dealing with a lame duck government that no longer controls Congress.
The Iranians will likely decide to delay the deal until the next US presidential election in 2024, with influence intact. But Iranians have their own presidential election in 2025 and would have to wait for that election result. At that point, the deal would be dead and the parties would have to negotiate a new one from scratch, which will likely take a few years.
So the options aren’t between a deal now and in six months, but rather a deal now or in six years. And given how close Iran already is to having a nuclear weapon, the status quo is unsustainable. Sooner or later, Israel is likely to either take military action or encourage the US to roll back Iran’s nuclear program, potentially sparking a devastating regional conflagration.
How has the talks progressed since March and what prompted the two sides to meet in Doha?
In recent weeks, the European Union’s chief negotiator, Enrique Mora, has been bouncing embassies between Tehran and Washington in an attempt to find a mutually acceptable formula. But long-distance diplomacy has proven slow and ineffective.
With growing concerns over Iran’s nuclear program in the West and in Israel, and Iran’s deteriorating economic situation under sanctions, both sides had an incentive to return to the negotiating table. The EU concluded that it would be much more efficient to hold the rapprochement talks with both sides in the same city rather than on two different continents.
Does the fact that the last round of talks took place in a Persian Gulf country matter?
It is significant for two reasons. First, it shows how the regional context has changed since the nuclear deal was signed in 2015. Also, apart from Oman, no other Gulf country was too enthusiastic about the deal, which they largely saw as enriching and strengthening a regional rival. Now, having lived through the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” policy on Iran, which put them in the line of fire between Iran and the US, most Gulf countries understand the de-escalating value of a deal.
What geopolitical factors have changed since March, when the US and Iran last held indirect talks?
Of course, the war in Ukraine overshadowed everything. On the one hand, it has reduced the urgency of the nuclear talks and diverted the attention of Western politicians; on the other hand, Iran’s return to energy markets has made it more valuable to the West.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
The digest
The US says Israeli military shots are likely responsible for the death of Shireen Abu Akleh, but the investigation into the bullet is inconclusive See the article : No matter China’s new aircraft carrier, these are the ships the United States should take care of.
An investigation into the bullet that killed Al Jazeera correspondent Abu Akleh “could not draw a definitive conclusion” as to its origin due to the condition of the bullet, but the US security coordinator “concluded that it was gunfire from Positions [of the Israel Defense Forces] were likely responsible for their deaths,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said in a statement Monday. The security coordinator, he said, “found no reason to believe that this was intentional, but the result of tragic circumstances during an IDF-led military operation against factions of Palestinian Islamic Jihad.”
Lebanese Hezbollah says drones have been sent to an Israeli gas rig in disputed waters
Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for launching three unarmed drones Saturday at an oil field in an area of the Mediterranean Sea disputed between Lebanon and Israel, the group said in a statement to CNN. Israel’s military said on Saturday that the drones were shot down and that they were launched from Lebanon and headed towards the Karish gas field.
A Ukrainian official said Ukraine had appealed to Turkey to “detain” a Russian-flagged ship carrying grain.
Ukraine has requested that Turkish authorities detain a Russian-flagged vessel carrying Ukrainian grain, the nation’s ambassador to Turkey Vasyl Bodnar told CNN on Saturday.
What to watch
From Egypt to Jordan, three women were brutally killed in three different Middle Eastern countries just days apart. CNN’s Becky Anderson examines the epidemic of gender-based violence in the Arab world and social and societal deficiencies that impede the adequate protection of women.
79%
Turkey’s annual inflation rose to a 24-year high of 78. This may interest you : Choice of food and home offers Run Derby X.62% in June amid the fallout from the Ukraine war, rising commodity prices and a fall in the lira since a crisis in December.
Around the region
Eleven billion plastic bags are used in the United Arab Emirates every year. Read also : Stability in times of upheaval – a challenge the Israeli high-tech industry may face. That equates to 1,182 bags per person per year – drastically more than the global average of 307 bags per person per year.
The 10 million people are now trying to change that. This weekend, the business and entertainment hub of Dubai tightened rules on the use of plastic bags by imposing a 25 fils ($0.07) duty on all single-use bags.
The UAE, preparing to host the COP28 climate summit in 2023, aims to end the use of single-use bags by 2024.
Dubai’s move comes just a month after Abu Dhabi, the country’s capital, introduced a ban on all single-use plastic bags – the first to do so in the Middle East. Unlike Dubai, Abu Dhabi has not motivated the public with a tariff but with a total ban.
The emirate has given retailers a four-month grace period to comply with the rules.
“It’s good that Europe and America are doing the same,” Fayiz, a clerk at a supermarket in Dubai, told CNN.
Dubai’s tariff applies to all disposable bags with a thickness of 57 microns or less.
Photo of the day
