If you made a bet on NFL Week 15, well, you earned it. Arguably the craziest weekend of the season for punters and bookies.
Think we witnessed the greatest comeback in NFL history on Saturday. And by Sunday evening, that achievement was completely overshadowed by one of the most shocking decisions you’ll ever see.
Let’s recap the football betting week we had.
You’ve probably seen it by now, but if you haven’t: At the end of the Patriots-Raiders game tied at 24, New England called a game near midfield. Rhamondre Stevenson ran for 23 yards to the Las Vegas 32-yard line, which probably should have ended the game, sending the game into overtime.
But inexplicably – again, this was a tie game – Stevenson gave it to Jakobi Meyers, who was too powerful and then tried the sideline to quarterback Mac Jones. In step was Raiders defensive end Chandler Jones, who caught the Pats QB in the backfield and stiff-armed into oblivion as he rumbled 48 yards for a touchdown.
And just like that, the Raiders win in regulation, 30-24. Oh, and they covered it as a 2.5-point home favorite and cashed in a lot of ticket money, too.
“That flurry at the end of the Raiders game caused us to lose a little bit as we avoided the Raiders cash line,” said Casey Degnon, senior risk supervisor at The SuperBook.
Added Zachary Lucas, director of sports sales for TwinSpires Sportsbook: “We had a tough afternoon/evening. The Raiders loss was a big change for us. We needed the Pats for a big total.”
Along with the win and the cover that resulted in more straight bets, the Raiders ended or saved a lot of parlay/moneyline parlay cards. That’s a killer for BetMGM.
“That didn’t go well for us,” said BetMGM’s vice president of marketing Jason Scott, noting the Raiders’ win added to the NFL’s massive winning streak. “It started with the 49ers on Thursday, then all three of the favorites won on Saturday, and then the finals today where all four of the favorites .”
In the “last slate,” Scott was referring to the four NFL games through Sunday night. The Raiders, Chargers, Bengals and Broncos – all favorites – all won.
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And then there was the whole World Cup final. Don’t think Lionel Messi’s Argentina shirt hasn’t found its way into some of the NFL parlays. Messi & Co. was given up for betting on a dramatic win on penalties after Argentina and France played out a 2-2 draw in regulation – thanks to a stunning comeback to France – and it was tied at 3 after extra time.
“Argentina has seven bad numbers,” Scott said before describing the weekend. “Play Parlay 1, BetMGM 0.”
The Indianapolis Colts are to thank for the Patriots. If it wasn’t for the Pats’ shocking case of unnecessary lateral mania – Did that really happen? It’s true? – we’re all going to talk about how Matt Ryan has on his resume the best leader of the Super Bowl and the best running game in the history of the NFL.
Indy went to Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog. Oddsmakers have been skeptical of the Vikings all season and still have their doubts about the 11-3 team entering Week 15. Those doubts seemed more justified when the Minnesota is in a big hole 33-0 half.
But the Vikes came back, tying it at 36 to force overtime. Greg Joseph then scored, in the final seconds of OT, on a 40-yard field goal to complete the comeback in a dramatic 39-36 victory.
What’s so weird? PointsBet USA broadcaster Wyatt Yearout said when Indy went 33-0 with eight seconds left in the first half, Minnesota 90-1 odds (+9000) on the money line.
“We made a few small bets. Most were $5,” Yearout said.
Those customers got ROI on their $5 investment. Nice turn five dollars into $450.
Caesars Sports said the Minnesota-to-win odds were as high as 35-1 (+3500), with “a few small wins.” The biggest winner at Caesars was a customer who put down $2,000 in Minnesota at 12-1 (+1200) to win $24,000.
When Minnesota was down 17-0 at the end of the first quarter, I thought, “Well, what the hell,” and put some money on the Vikings moneyline +225. And I thought the bet was already half gone. But this is the NFL for you, at least this wild week.
The SuperBook was very good at the return of the Vikings – because the return was not enough. Remember, Minnesota closed as a 3.5-point favorite and only won 3.
“We needed the Colts to cover for a good pick, so we came out with our feet up in the back room sweating,” Degnon said. “But we ended up on the good side there, even with the historic comeback.”
Lest we forget, the college football bowl season also kicked off this weekend, with more games on Friday and Saturday. These first games usually don’t bring much interest because the comparisons are often far from interesting. But one game was important for the SuperBook.
“Saturday night, the Frisco Bowl was a great decision for us,” Degnon said. “Boise State had a lot of state money including 12.5 and 13. Luckily, North Texas shut it down.”
In fact, the Mean Green fell to a 35-32 deficit.
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The return of the Vikings and the crazy victory of the Raiders are not the only interesting options in the NFL Week 15 odds market. The Jacksonville Jaguars – who, despite sitting at 6-8, are still alive for the game – pulled a big overtime surprise against the Dallas Cowboys.
First, the Jags overcame a 27-10 deficit to tie it at 34 and force OT. Rayshawn Jenkins then took an interception to the house to give Jacksonville a 40-34 win. At WynnBet, it worked well for the bettors but not so much for the bettors.
“It’s not a good day for the book, because two games really changed our day,” said WynnBet senior trader Chris Youn. “The Jags’ pick six to end the game and the Raiders’ [lateral]-recovery fumble really changed our day for the worse, going into Sunday night’s game.”
Cincinnati also encouraged consumers. The Bengals fell behind 17-0 to Tampa Bay but scored 34 straight points in a 34-23 victory that was 3.5 points.
Cincy, now 10-4 straight up (SU) and 11-3 against the spread (ATS), has won six in a row on the field and 11 of 12 in the betting window. .
“The Bengals came back in the second half and ended up covering it, and to get there, it was another not-so-good result,” Youn said.
The Bengals-Bucs total is WynnBet’s best pick of any NFL Week 15. The total opened at 42.5 and both climbed to 47.5 at kickoff.
I like big bets and I can’t lie
One of the top picks at Caesars Sports was all shot in the NFL Week 15 odds market. With bets:
So it ended up being a very nice Sunday for the seller, who finished $290,000 in the black. And the same bettor at Packers -7 for another $110,000 on Monday night.
But here’s something more welcoming, maybe from someone who only has two dollars left in their cell phone and says, “What the hell?” The bettor placed $2.25 on Jets tight end CJ Uzomah having two touchdowns against the Lions at +6000 (60-1).
Then Usoma went and threw all the Jets on 40 yards and 1 yard. New York ended up losing to Detroit 20-17, but bettor Uzomah got 60-1 for … $135.
Just like those $5 bets on Vikings +9000, though, you can’t beat the ROI. And it’s all spent.
Patrick Everson is a sports analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a prominent writer in the national sports arena. He lives in Las Vegas, where he likes to play golf in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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