With the legalization of sports betting expanding to new states every year, more and more college football fans are starting to bet on the sport they love. The problem? Not everyone knows what they are doing. It’s fun to play the favorite or pick the local program in a big game, but it’s even better to actually win.
With this first college football guide, newcomers – and possibly veterans who need a refresher – will have the opportunity to learn all the ins and outs of betting on the sport, including best practices for picking spreads and totals, whether trends are a good indicator of future success and simply how to have as much fun as possible without draining your bank account.
After all, if you win money along the way, that would be pretty good too.
College football betting basics
What can you bet on in college football? While sportsbooks will offer prop bets on players and game time situations during the season, they are more difficult to master. Especially if you don’t understand the basics. Read also : Ophir Lupu Leaves UTA After 10 Years as Head of Video Games (EXCLUSIVE). The bread and butter of college football betting still consists of three areas: the point spread (or “spread”), the total, and the moneyline.
The Spread: The most popular bet, the spread is the number of points given to a team to handicap a game with two equally likely outcomes. For example, Nebraska (-12) faces Northwestern (+12). The 12 point spread is with Nebraska listed as a 12-point favorite and Northwestern a 12-point underdog. In this scenario, Northwestern scores 12 points, beginning the game with an imaginary 12-0 lead.
If you bet Nebraska -12, it must win the game by at least 13 points for you to win your bet. If you bet Northwestern +12, the Wildcats must either win the game outright or lose by 11 points or less to win your bet. If Nebraska wins the game by 12 points, it is called a push and your bet on either side of the spread is refunded.
Total: This represents the total number of points scored in the game. The total for Nebraska vs. Northwestern is 50.5 points. So do you think more than 50.5 points or less will be scored? If you think more, you bet above 50.5. If you think less, bet below 50.5.
The money line: This is the simplest bet as you can choose who will win the game outright. Each bet comes with odds attached, however, as oddsmakers believe Nebraska is more likely to beat Northwestern than the other way around. If you want to bet Nebraska, you do so at -475 odds. If you believe Northwestern will win, you can bet it at +360 odds. These odds are based on a bet of $100. For Nebraska, -475 means you have to bet $475 to win $100. For Northwestern, +360 means you will win $360 if you bet $100. You pay a price given the probability of your chosen outcome occurring.
Odds: Moneylines are not the only bets with odds attached to them. Spread and total bets also have odds. To continue our example, Nebraska -12 is listed with (-110) attached. Northwestern +12 also has (-110), as do both sides of the total. This is called “juice” or “vigorish” (a.k.a. “vig”). Basically, it’s how much the sportsbook charges you for the opportunity to bet. While -110 is standard, odds can fluctuate for spreads and totals as low as +100 (even odds) or usually no higher than around -130. Like the money line, with -110 juice, you have to bet $110 to win $100, but the other factor to consider is called implied odds.
To put it another way, how often do you have to win a particular bet to make money? The math is simple. If the odds are a negative number, remove the negative and add 100 to that number. Then divide the original odds by the new number. So for -110, we add 100 to 110 to get 210. We then divide 110 by 210 to get 52.38%. That means you have to be right 52. On the same subject : Neon White wouldn’t be “weird” without Machine Girl music.38% of the time to make money on that bet. If the juice is a positive number, the process is slightly different. Using Northwestern’s money line of +360, we again add 100 to 360 before dividing 100 by the new number. So that would be 100 divided by 460, which equals 21.74%. Northwestern must win the game 21.74% of the time. That’s its implied odds.
“But, Tom, if I add up the implied odds for all these bets, don’t they add up to more than 100%?” Yup! This is how casinos and sportsbooks make money! So have fun betting, but if you want to make money in the long run, be aware of the implied odds.
Now that we’ve got the training out of the way, let’s get to some of the fun stuff.
Should I bet favorites or underdogs?
In a simple world, favorites would cover half the time and underdogs would cover the other half with the occasional nudge here and there. But the world is not simple, and even though sportsbooks have algorithms to calculate the most likely outcomes, people still place the bets. This may interest you : Future Video Games Should Be Inspired by Genndy Tartakovsky’s Primal. People have tendencies.
Simply put, people prefer betting favorites compared to underdogs. It makes sense. The bettors want to win and the favorites are considered the better teams. So why would you bet on a worse team? Well, it doesn’t exactly work that way.
Over the past five seasons (since 2017), underdogs have gone 1,985-1,955-66 against the spread (ATS). This doesn’t mean you would have won money if you bet all the underdogs (that’s only a 0.503 win rate, and remember what I just taught you about implied odds?), but it’s an example of how the betting public can be biased results.
When it comes to deciding on betting favorites or underdogs, bet on the side you think is most likely to win the game in question.
Most successful favorites (min. 20 games)
Most frequent favorites
Most successful underdogs (min. 20 games)
Most frequent underdogs
OK, what’s the secret?
Unfortunately, there isn’t one. There’s no foolproof way to know which team to bet on for any given game, but if you look at the charts above, there are some tips you can take away. For example, when you look at the teams that have been favored the most, do you notice a trend in the teams that perform the best?
Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame and Oklahoma State have covered at least 54% of the time as favorites since 2017. All had excellent defenses in that time. The best teams in the country will be favored more than anyone else (duh!), but almost anyone can score points. That’s how they win games. But to win games and cover posts, you must also stop your opponent from scoring. So although it’s not a rule, I try to avoid betting a favorite with a bad defense.
As for underdogs, I like teams that do a good job of taking care of the football on offense while playing good defense. Those kinds of teams make a habit of staying in games, which leads to direct upsets and spreads being covered.
Is the over or under a better bet?
It’s no different than favorites and underdogs. People are more likely to bet over because it is more fun for the average fan to watch games and find points to be scored as opposed to cheering on defenses. Sportsbooks understand that and adjust the totals to account for it. That’s why the under has gone 2,045-1,910-54 since 2017 for a winning mark of 51.71%. Let’s take a look at the most important teams to know with data going back to 2017.
Best ‘over’ teams
Best ‘under’ teams
OK, what’s the secret here?
Like betting spreads, there is no surefire way to win bets; if there were, sportsbooks would quickly adapt. Still, there are statistics worth reviewing. For example, teams that play multiple plays per match, in higher scoring games and vice versa.
Red-zone efficiency is another telltale sign. Many offenses drive down the field, but once they get inside the 20, they struggle to finish drives as the defense tightens up and there isn’t as much space to exploit. Also see how defenses fare in the same situation. If you have a game with two teams that are strong in the red zone on offense against defenses that are bad in the red zone, a lot of points are likely to be scored! If it’s two bad attacks and two good defenses, consider below!
Again, sportsbooks are aware of this as well, but when you see a game with a remarkably high or low total, remember that it was set that way for a reason. Don’t overthink it. And remember: There are no easy answers. Before placing a bet – whether spread, total or moneyline – research the teams as much as possible and then make what you think is the best bet based on what you know. After that, it’s out of your hands.
Do trends matter?
Not nearly as much as some would have you believe. Trends do not have much – if any – predictive value, but they can be used to better understand why certain events occur. For example, you might say a team has gone 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games. That’s great, but does that make it an incredible home team, or have its last eight home games been against none? The trend alone won’t tell you. You have to dig deeper for the context.
Sample sizes are important. Instead of going 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games, if a team was 30-10 ATS over its last 40 home games, it’s worth considering. This team may have an advantage playing at home that the books don’t consider.
One such trend I have long screamed about is betting on games between service academies (Air Force, Army and Navy). All three use option offenses and often run the ball. This leads to fewer plays in their games than in typical competitions and fewer total possessions. As a result, there are fewer scoring opportunities.
This helps explain why the under has gone 41-9-1 in the 51 games between the three teams since 2005. That includes eight straight unders, hitting in 23 of the last 25 such games. Still, the trend is on borrowed time, even as reliable as it has been. For years, books have put the totals for these games in the mid-40s to mid-50s. The last five meetings have seen the total between 36 and 39.5. As they always do, the sportsbooks are adapting.
Any other tips?
Avoid parlays. If you pay attention to the advertisements and promotions of sportsbooks and sports betting apps, you will notice how they constantly push parlays on you. They do this for a reason: it’s hard to pick a winning bet consistently, and parlays add many more levels of difficulty. They sell the big payouts, but the payouts are so big for a reason: the sportsbook rarely has to pay them.
Think of it like this: Let’s say you have a true 50% chance of winning a single bet you place. If you bet on a four leg parlay with 50% odds on each leg, there is only a 6.25% chance that the bet will win the parlay. And the odds you get won’t reflect this improbability.
The “juice” we mentioned earlier is applied to each leg of a parlay. The potential payout is much higher than a standard bet, but so is the juice you pay. Since you are far more likely to lose a parlay than a single bet, you pay more juice for a less likely outcome. It’s a lose-lose.
Have fun. This is the most important advice I can give you about betting on college football or any sport. There has been a lot of math in this betting guide; don’t let it overwhelm you. As long as you enjoy it – and only bet amounts you’re comfortable with potentially losing – that’s all that matters. If you want to bet parlays, do it! That’s fine, I won’t judge you (too much)!
Remember that the overwhelming majority of sports bettors lose money in the long run. Yes, even your friend who claims they always win. It’s in the design. As long as you enjoy it, go for it. Most hobbies cost money, and sports betting is no different. If you turn out to be some kind of super gambler, remember who introduced you to college football betting and return the favor.
The Rams are 4-point favorites over the Bengals in Super Bowl 56. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET at the Rams’ home field, SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. The match will be televised on NBC.
Which NFL teams are playing today?
- 12:00 p.m. EDT. Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers.
- 3:00 a.m. EDT. Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions.
- 6:00 a.m. EDT. NFL Total Access.
- 7:00 a.m. EDT. Good morning football.
- 10:00 a.m. EDT. Good morning football.
- 1 p.m. EDT. Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals.
- 4:00 p.m. EDT. New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles.
- 6:30 p.m. EDT.
Are there NFL football games today? There are no NFL games today.
Where is national Championship 2023?
The CFP National Championship will be played on Monday, January 9, 2023 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. Below is a complete history of the College Football Playoff national championship game.
Where is the 2023 CFP National Championship? SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California will host the CFP National Championship game in 2023, and Allegiant Stadium will host the title game in 2024. Atlanta and Miami will host the College Football Playoff National Championship game, ending the current contract, which ends in 2026.
What Bowl is the national championship 2023?
|Year||Semifinal game||Championship game|
|2022â23||Fiesta bowl||SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship|
|2023â24||Rose bowl||NRG Stadium, Houston, TX 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship|
Where is the national championship next 5 years?
2021 â Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. 2022 â Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. 2023 â SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. 2024 â NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.
Where is the 2022 national championship game?
Indianapolis welcomes fans to the College Football Playoff National Championship on January 10, 2022. Welcome to Indy â Home of the 2022 CFP National Championship at Lucas Oil Stadium.
How many NFL teams are there?
How many current NFL teams are there? NFL Football Teams – Official sites for all 32 NFL teams.
What 7 states have more than one NFL team?
Which states have more than one NFL team? A: California, Florida, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. 4.
Which states don’t have an NFL team?
Some states without NFL teams—such as Alabama, Iowa and Oklahoma—have strong college football programs that can outshine any NFL team that moved there. The other states that do not have NFL teams include Arkansas, Delaware, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oregon and South Dakota.
Who will win CFP 2022?
The Georgia Bulldogs pulled off a thrilling “and dominating” victory over the Alabama Crimson Tide to win the 2022 CFP National Championship.
Who is favored to win the CFP Championship? Georgia and Alabama round out the top two teams returning this season, setting the SEC up as the favorite to win what would be its 13 national championships in the last 17 years.
What are the odds of Georgia beating Alabama?
Who will win the college football national championship 2023?
It’s no surprise that Alabama is the 2023 CFP Championship favorite. Bryce Young and Will Anderson Jr., two of the best players in the nation, can lead this team to the mountaintop again. With improvements from the offensive line and a healthier receiving corps, things bode well for the Crimson Tide.