The Seattle Mariners acquired right-hander Luis Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds on Friday night in the first major move before Major League Baseball’s Aug. 2 trade deadline. In exchange, the Mariners sent four prospects to Cincinnati: shortstops Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo, and righties Levi Stoudt and Andrew Moore.
The Mariners, currently the American League’s second wild-card team, are trying to make the postseason for the first time since 2001. Castillo should bolster a rotation — both this season and next — that already includes reigning Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray and quality youngsters Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. Adding him came at a high cost for the Mariners, but it shows how serious CEO Jerry Dipoto is about ending the longest playoff run in the sport.
On the Cincinnati side, Castillo’s departure is the latest (though not the last) part of an ongoing rebuild that dates back to last winter. The Reds are in full talent-stacking mode at this point, and it’s fair to say they got a nice return for their ace and his season and a half of remaining team control.
Here at CBS Sports, we’re nothing but judgmental, which means we offer almost instant analysis of the big deals this time of year. Below you’ll find “Rates” for both the Mariners and Reds, along with explanations of those ratings.
Failing that, let’s start with a summary of the deal:
Mariners grade: A
That’s the kind of trade you make when you haven’t made the playoffs in over two decades. Read also : Netflix Top Movies and Shows: What’s Happening June 25, 2022. But seriously, it’s a welcome sight in a few ways, starting with how he rewards Seattle’s passionate (and long-suffering) fan base and extending to how he guides the counterculture in the league as a whole.
Teams these days are too happy to take a postseason spot for granted. Their executives will do a marginal upgrade or two on the sidelines. If the chips are falling as much as they can and that’s enough to make the playoffs, great; otherwise, why risk losing some sweet, sweet surplus value for anything less than a division title?
The Mariners will not win the AL West. They will enter Saturday as far behind the Houston Astros as the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Adding Castillo boosts their postseason odds and, more importantly, makes them a more dangerous October opponent.
Note that the new playoff format eliminates the one-time wild card game; the top two seeds in each league will receive a bye, while the others will play a best-of-three series at the better team’s stadium. The Mariners now have a better chance to host this series and can field a three-game rotation that includes Castillo, the reigning Cy Young Award winner, and Logan Gilbert, one of the most promising young starters in the sport. This is a tough series of games for the Toronto Blue Jays or any other team looking to cruise forward.
Assuming that the outgoing package, as good as it is, wouldn’t be enough to beat Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani, then Castillo was the most impactful player the Mariners could get back. For example, Castillo, 29, could get the Game 1 assignment. After missing the start of the season with a shoulder problem, he bounced back to post a 2.86 ERA (160 ERA+) and a 3.21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14 starts. He ranks seventh among starters in wins above replacement since the start of the pandemic era. He is also under team control through the end of next season, and despite the aforementioned shoulder issues, has made the full roster every year since 2018. The Mariners should be optimistic that Castillo can give them plenty of quality starts. from now until winter 2023.
Castillo’s signing is his change. It is one of, if not the best of its kind and has often been used as his primary offering throughout his career. However, Castillo’s cambio hasn’t caught the eye so far this season; instead, that honor goes to his four-seam fastball, which averaged 97 mph and produced a .125 batting average and a 38.7 percent whiff rate, the most among pitchers with at least 300 four-seam pitchers to date. Castillo also sinks his fastball and throws a slider, but for our money it’s a good four-seamer and changeup.
Most people would agree going into Friday morning that it would be great to see the Mariners make a splash and that Castillo is the best pitcher on the market. Now that the costs are known, there will likely be some disagreement about whether this trade was worth what follows. There was a lot to give up, no doubt, and this trade will limit Seattle’s ability to make further moves this summer and beyond. Castillo’s addition could end up being the difference between the Mariners winning a playoff series (or more) and not.
We’re giving the Mariners an A because we think it’s healthier for the sport for teams — especially those who aren’t the usual suspects — to prioritize deep playoff potential, and because we like Castillo a lot as a pitcher. You’d understand anyone giving them a lower grade because of the massive amount of talent they gave up for a relatively short-term fix.
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Reds grade: A
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It’s become fashionable for struggling teams to hit the reset button by trading every player approaching free agency or hitting seven or more figures. There is no easier way for a CEO to provide additional job security than to refer to a five-year renewal plan. In this way, the owner saves a lot of money and the CEO does not have to deliver results. Just trust the process, man. Skepticism bordering on cynicism is warranted whenever a team embarks on this journey.
The worst, most desperate of these situations — the ones where the clear goal is to save the owner some money at the expense of the team — look a lot like what the Reds did during the season. They rushed out catcher Tucker Barnhart because he was not a prospect, and they dealt lefty Wade Miley to the Chicago Cubs. Both moves were inexplicable even at the time and suggested the Reds would take a long, hard and cheap road back to relevance. (It didn’t help that the owner’s son, a replacement outfit, mouthed off at the fans earlier in the season.) This trade, on the other hand, is a rebuild done right.
The Reds plucked two of the best guys out of Seattle’s good farm system in exchange for a year and a half of Castillo in a trade that seems ripped from the past. Today’s teams generally don’t recoup that much potential capital for pitchers this close to free agency. Factor in Cincinnati’s draft pick of Cam Collier, easily the best value in the first round, and the Reds have added three high-quality pitching prospects to their farm system in a matter of weeks.
Granted, it’s never easy to replace a pitcher of Castillo’s caliber, especially when he stands out as one of the franchise’s biggest recent scouting and development wins. (The Reds acquired Castillo from the Miami Marlins in 2017 for Dan Straily; Castillo went on to play 137 games for the Reds, compared to Straily’s 56 with the Fish.) To do this now and make this return is a defensible baseball decision on several levels.
Castillo, while mostly durable throughout his career, missed the start of the season with a shoulder problem. His looming free agency means the Reds had to make a call, extend or trade him; the former seemed like a questionable decision given the Reds’ position on the win curve and the risk involved in giving a veteran starter — a very good one at that — a long-term contract worth their market value.
Marte, 20, entered the spring as the 11th-best prospect in the sport by CBS Sports. He spent a year in High-A, facing competition that averaged nearly three years his senior. That didn’t stop him from hitting .275/.363/.462 or totaling 34 extra base hits (including 15 home runs) and 13 steals in 85 games.
Marte combines great raw power with a sense of contact and zone. He never struck out in more than 22 percent of his plate appearances throughout the season, but he reliably issued walks in at least nine percent of his trips to the plate. If there is anything concerning about his offensive game, it has to do with his tendency to wear down left field. His 55 percent fielding rate would be the third highest in the majors, trailing only Daulton Varsho and Byron Buxton. The Reds may work with Marte to use the entire field, making him harder to defend, or decide there is no defense for him to clear the wall; Either way, he has enough tools and capabilities to help me think he’ll develop into an above-average shooter.
Marte’s biggest weakness is his defense. Last season he made 30 errors in 99 games, and this year he already has 24 errors in 81 games. The Reds will likely task their instructors with working with him on his internal clock and smoothing out his rough edges, as there is no physical reason he can’t improve at six. If he fails to do so, he will likely have to slide over to third base. Marte’s stick gives him wide space, and it’s possible he could develop into a star-caliber player regardless of where he lines up.
Arroyo, 18, had fans in the 2021 draft because of his combination of youth (he won’t turn 19 until late August) and defensive polish. He is undoubtedly a short fielder who has the hands, feet and arm to be an asset at the long distance position. The question mark in his game has been his stick, but he’s a shifty hitter who has held his own despite being significantly younger than his competition in his first full pro season. In fact, Arroyo led a team that included well-regarded prospects like Harry Ford and Jonatan Clase in hitting with a .316/.385/.514 hitting streak. That’s a good prediction.
Arroy’s glove gives him a high floor. If he continues to improve as a hitter, the Reds will have two starter-caliber left fielders in one inning.
Stoudt, 24, is a small right-hander who is positioned as the first member of the group to reach the majors. He has already appeared in 21 games at the Double-A level, albeit with less than optimal results. He has a 5.28 ERA in 87 innings this season, attributing much of that damage to one of the higher home runs in his clubhouse. Stoudt has better stuff than those grades suggest, including a mid-90s fastball, but there’s more than a fair chance he’ll hit in relief as a major leaguer.
Moore, 22, is not to be confused with the former Mariners pitcher of the same name. While the other Moore was a command-and-control starter, this Moore is a pure reliever who pumps the gas with a mid-to-high-90s fastball. He struck out 58 of 133 batters (44 percent) he faced with the Mariners this season. He could fill a high-leverage role if he can continue to strike at an acceptable level.
