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Updated: June 25, 2022 at 7:27 a.m. ET

San Francisco is one of the areas with more new listings now than pre-pandemic.

Even as mortgage rates continue to rise (see the lowest rates you can qualify for here), house prices continue to rise. And one big factor in rising house prices is that there is currently a shortage of real estate inventory in America. Read also : Video: Brazen thief uses high-tech methods to break into locked cars in northeast Philadelphia. Between supply chain issues and material shortages, the United States is short of more than 3 million homes, according to data from Freddie Mac, which is not helped by the speed bumps in construction and the low number of existing homes on the market. “If something is scarce, buyers have no choice but to offer it more,” says Bankrate analyst Jeff Ostrowski about why house prices hit records.

But in some markets there are more new listings now than there were before the pandemic. In fact, the report shows that six out of 50 cities now have more new listings than pre-pandemics (measured by looking at the average number of new listings – properties on the market for 14 days or less – since January- April). 2022 vs. average for January-April 2017-2019). These cities are: San Francisco, San Jose, Calif., Seattle, Portland, San Antonio and Kansas City, according to an analysis conducted by mortgage technology and data provider Black Knight.

Why are new listings important? Black Knight explains that if restrictions remain on new listings – especially for inventories as we are now – this may be a sign that it may take longer to normalize overall inventory levels. However, if we see more new listings, that may suggest that the inventory may return (reasonably) faster. Of course, the flip side of this equation is sales volumes, and the slow market sales volume will also affect overall inventory levels.

So what might be driving the uptick in new listings in certain markets? Of course, this varies by market, but the benefits say that some of this may be related to how remote pandemic work has shifted housing demand from less affordable urban markets to more affordable markets. . For example, as prices have increased in San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle and Portland, there has been a trend towards homeowners leaving those places to more affordable destinations in the West Mountain region. “Idaho, Utah, Nevada and Arizona have seen an influx of buyers from California. However, there is a shortage of homes for sale in the tech capitals whose prices have not declined in those markets, ”says Ostrowski.

Zillow economist Nicole Bachaud says the Bay Area and Seattle are two areas with rapidly growing populations and subsequent housing affordability challenges long before the pandemic. “Inventory in these areas was very low prior to the pandemic, which meant that there was less space to fall out than in some of the other markets around the country where there is a large inventory. But despite high housing costs, competition for available inventory remains high in these markets, ”says Bachaud. In other words, even though there are more listings, do not expect that finding the house you need will be extremely easy.

When you look at active listings – which are just properties on the market, for any few days – San Francisco and San Jose have a smaller deficit than many other cities (23% and 36%, respectively). Compare that to a place like Raleigh: Outside the 50 largest housing markets in the nation, Raleigh ranks best as the city with the biggest deficit: The number of active listings is down 83% from pre-pandemic levels, and new listings there. down 37%.

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Will house prices drop soon?

As we have said, house prices are unlikely to fall any time soon – especially not in 2022. Some experts predict that house prices will grow at a slower rate (6%) than we have seen recently. But others expect growth to continue at about the same pace as last year (16%).

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Why are houses so expensive right now?

In addition, house prices have risen 4.6 percent in the last two quarters alone. This may interest you : Is politics a problem for markets?. The reason why homes are so expensive at present is simply the result of a supply and demand problem. Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, interest rates were reduced to help stimulate the economy.

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Will recession cause house prices to drop?

Analysis shows that a severe and severe reversal of property values ​​can deteriorate by 75% in the long run over a 50 year tenure, compared to any severe recession during a tenure (see report for further understanding: How much are house prices collapse, or crash, in recession: 40 years of data … See the article : Real estate transfers | News |

What will the downturn do for the housing market? If the recession hits, Zandi predicts that U.S. house prices will fall by 5% year-on-year, even though “overvalued” housing markets would see a significant “overvalued” house, Zandi says, by 15% to 20% in house prices. (To see the 40 regional housing markets most vulnerable to price falls, go here.)

Why do people lose their house during a recession?

In 2007, the housing market began to decline. A combination of rising house prices, loose lending practices, and rising subprime mortgages has pushed up real estate prices to unsustainable levels. Foreclosures and defaults have disrupted the housing market, destroying financial securities that support subprime mortgages.

Do home prices go down in a recession?

Prices Lower House values ​​tend to fall during an economic downturn. So, if you are looking for a home, you will probably find the following: Homeowners who are willing to lower their asking prices. Homeowners making short sales to get rid of their mortgages.

Is it smart to buy a house in a recession?

Economic downturns tend to lead to low interest rates and create a buyers market for single-family homes. As long as you are confident in your ability to cover your mortgage payments, a downturn may be a good time to buy a home.

Is it a buyers or sellers market 2022?

We expect new inventories to remain elevated during the beginning of 2022, as potential sellers respond to strong price growth, which means that some buyers can expect the levels to decline. intense competition seen in 2021.

Will 2022 prices fall? In context, the latest PCE Price Index data show that the year – on – year inflation rate has been up 6.3% since April 2022. But in the second quarter of Morningstar â € œU.S. Economic Outlook, researchers predict the highest inflation rate by 2022, as measured by the CTP Price Index, at 5.2%, before the fall.

What is the prediction for real estate in 2022?

On Wednesday, Zillow researchers released a revised forecast, predicting that U.S. house prices would rise 14.9% between March 2022 and March 2023. That’s down 2.9 percentage points from last month, when Zillow said house prices would rise. an increase of 17.8% in the year ahead.

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