Prior to the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade – the 1973 ruling that established a national right to abortion – Democrats faced severe headwinds in November. President Joe Biden has an average below 40% of job approval in polls, with rampant inflation, rising gas prices and a high-profile crime that puts voters in a rut. harsh mood.
Now Democrats say they have a blockbuster problem to energize their side. Polls consistently show that the majority of voters support access to abortion, with certain limitations. And in the week following Roe’s death, Democratic candidates across the country have been pushing hard on public sentiment that is leaning toward promoting abortion rights.
Why We Wrote This
The fight for abortion rights has, for now, really been state by state. Read also : Scientists point to new brain models for antinausea drugs. In the November election, certain races could jump on the bandwagon, with access to abortion in many online battle states.
With access to abortion now determined at the state level, governors in battle states are suddenly more important – with control of state legislatures. Meanwhile, the battle for the Senate remains crucial in the event of another Supreme Court vacancy.
Recent polls suggest Democrats are receiving a boost from the problem, at least for now. However, the abortion decision may also energize Republicans.
“There’s no evidence that making Roe a center this year changes everything to a democratic advantage,” says Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Survey.
At first glance, the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade – the 1973 ruling that established a national right to abortion – might seem beneficial to Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections.
Prior to June 24, when the high court issued its bombshell decision, Democrats were facing severe headwinds in November. President Joe Biden is unpopular, with an average below 40% approval of work in polls. Rampant inflation, rising gas prices and high-profile crime have put voters in a bitter mood. Democratic control of the White House and both houses of Congress puts the party on the defensive.
Now Democrats say they have a blockbuster issue – a woman’s right to end an unwanted pregnancy, soon gone to several states – that can energize not only her voters, but also independents and perhaps even some pro-abortion Republicans. . Polls consistently show that the majority of voters support access to abortion, with certain limitations.
Why We Wrote This
The fight for abortion rights has, for now, really been state by state. Read also : ICYMI: State Commissioner of Health Dr. Mary T. Bassett’s Op-Ed in Elle Magazine: If I Were Not Pregnant, I Would Not Be New York Health Commissioner. In the November election, certain races could jump on the bandwagon, with access to abortion in many online battle states.
“Republicans wanted to make this a battlefield, and they went too far,” says Democratic poll leader Celinda Lake. “They’re going to pay a price in November.”
In the week after Roe’s death, Democratic candidates across the country have been pushing out loud on public sentiment that tends to favor abortion rights, while many Republicans seem to downplay the problem.
However, anyone who thinks Republicans should declare victory and go ahead is wrong, say anti-abortion activists. For some abortionists, getting rid of Roe is just the beginning. Within moments of the June 24 decision, former Vice President Mike Pence called for a national ban on abortion.
“I’m sure [Democrats] will be energized,” says Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. “But the pro-life side has waited 50 years for this to matter [in the election]. Don’t expect it to become salient and stay at home.”
In Washington, Republicans are in the minority and do not have the ability to pass a national ban. But Democrats don’t even seem to have enough votes to pass a law that guarantees the right to abortion across the country. President Biden said Thursday he will support the resignation of the filibuster to “codify Roe,” which will allow the bill to pass with a simple majority in the Senate, instead of the usual 60 votes. But on Friday, he acknowledged he did not have the necessary votes to change the rules, and urged his party to get more of its own elected as senators in the mid-term.
And so the fight for abortion rights, for now, has really been state by state. Ms. Dannenfelser’s organization campaigns in eight battle states in front of the midterms: Wisconsin, Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina. She says the anti-abortion group is aimed at voters regardless of party – Democratic, Republican, independent. Democrats, for their part, have already advertised attacks on Republicans on the issue in states from New Hampshire to Illinois to Pennsylvania.
SOURCE: The New York Times, Cook Political Report
The biggest battlegrounds for November are the campaigns across the state – first and foremost, the Senate and the governor’s ranks. If Democrats can keep the Senate, they would still have a majority to confirm, especially crucial in the event of another Supreme Court vacancy. And with abortion rights now determined at the state level, governors in battle states are suddenly more important – with control of state legislatures.
Recent polls suggest Democrats may receive a boost from the issue, at least for now. The latest Marist poll found that 56% of Americans oppose the June 24 ruling, versus 40% who support it. A CBS poll found a similar result, including a large gender disparity, with 67% of women in opposition and 33% in favor.
Yet the abortion problem can also energize Republicans. While a recent Morning Consult poll found that Democratic enthusiasm for the vote in the mid-term had gained ground after the Supreme Court ruling, it was still a little behind Republican enthusiasm.
“There is no evidence that making Roe a center this year changes everything to a democratic advantage,” says Charles Franklin, a public opinion expert and director of the Marquette Law School poll.
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida
Each state has its own unique political ecosystem. Take Wisconsin – a tightly divided state and a superior battlefield for both the 2022 Senate and governorship races. On the same subject : Gov. Lamont and Lt. Gov. Bysiewicz Urge Businesses from States Restricting Women’s Rights to Relocate to Connecticut. In 2020, President Biden won him by a sliver, about 20,000 votes.
However, Wisconsin’s new abortion policy is more draconian than that of Mississippi. The state’s abortion clinics are already closed, in view of a state law of 1849 banning abortion, which came into force after the June 24 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health. The Republican state legislature refused to repeal the 173-year state law. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers has promised to grant clemency to doctors prosecuted under the abortion ban, and the state’s Democratic attorney general has demanded to block the law. The two men are running for re-election this fall.
In Florida, the largest electoral battlefield in the country, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis praised the Dobbs ruling, but offered a few specifics on how he could “work to expand pro-life protection.” he said. In April, she signed a law limiting legal abortion in Florida to 15 weeks of pregnancy, with no exceptions for stroke or incest – more restrictive than the previous Florida law under Roe, but less prohibitive in other states. redder. On Thursday, a Florida judge temporarily blocked the law from coming into force; Governor DeSantis says he will appeal.
The Florida governor seems to have his eyes on a bigger award – the Republican nomination for president. Therefore, you would need to meet the GOP’s anti-abortion base. But first he needs to win his November re-election race, in a state that relies only slightly on Republicans and where a solid majority of residents support the right to abortion. So, the low-key approach on abortion – for now.
At a Monitor Breakfast on June 22, Florida Senator Rick Scott – chairman of the Republican Senate campaign committee and another possible presidential hopeful – said he supports Florida’s new law. But when asked about the lack of exceptions for rape and incest, he said, “I think there should be exceptions.”
Another battlefield state is Pennsylvania, where races for two open offices across the state, the Senate and the governor, are attracting national attention.
In the run-up to the Senate, Democrat John Fetterman has taken a vocally pro-abortion stance. His GOP opponent, Dr. Mehmet Oz, says he opposes abortion, but has been criticized primarily for past statements suggesting it favors personal choice.
The governor’s race could be more immediate: GOP candidate Doug Mastriano called abortion the No. 1 problem, and wants a state ban without exception. Democratic candidate Josh Shapiro, currently the state’s attorney general, is raising funds on the issue, referring to Mr. Mastriano’s “dangerous view on abortion rights.” The latest data from the Pew Research Center shows a slim majority of Pennsylvanians, 51%, want abortion to be legal in all or most cases.
What suburban women want
A key demographic, for both parties, is suburban women. This cohort is already known for high turnout, so the question is, on what issues will their votes be based?
In a focus group Wednesday night of nine elderly, suburban female swing voters from across the country, conducted on Zoom by a Democratic strategist and viewed anonymously by this journalist, negative emotions regarding the state of the country. The women said they were “worried”, “depressed”, “frustrated” and “anxious”.
The problems of the kitchen table dominated, with the economy weighing heavily on these voters. So did the education and the recent mass shootings. But without further ado, Roe’s reversal came first in the two-hour focus group session.
It’s a “big concern,” said one woman, a retiree from the outskirts of Detroit, who also raised concerns about the future of LGBTQ rights. “It’s a minority of people who make these decisions for all of us. I just don’t like it.”
A woman in the late ’60s on the outskirts of Houston also worried strongly that Roe’s overthrow could lead to the disbandment of other rights.
“It bothers me a lot,” he said. “If they can cancel Roe v. Wade, they can cancel interracial marriage, they can cancel gay marriage, they can cancel my right to vote. … It’s the Christian values that have voted, and not everyone in this country is Christian.”
Not everyone in the group supported abortion rights. A woman on the outskirts of Chicago called the Supreme Court’s decision “perfect, because it must be decided at the state level.”
And another woman, from the outskirts of Maryland, gave the abortion issue only “average weight” to determine how she would vote – with a warning to Democrats. “The party I depend on has allowed this to happen, and it’s too late,” he said.
Staff writer Simon Montlake contributed to this report.
