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Abu Dhabi, UAE (CNN)Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to launch another military invasion in northeastern Syria.
Embarked almost two months ago still awaiting what analysts say is likely to be a green light from Moscow, the operation raises questions about Turkey’s ultimate plans for Syria.
Erdogan says he wants to launch his fourth operation in the north of the country since 2016, targeting a zone that includes the two main towns of Manbij and Tel Rifaat. The goal, according to the President, is to rid the area of fighters associated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a militant group that Turkey considers to be terrorists.
“We are entering the new phase of our determination to create a 30-km (20-mile) deep safe zone along our southern border,” Erdogan told lawmakers from his ruling AK Party in June. “We will clear Tal Rifaat and Manbij the terrorists, and we will do the same with other regions step by step.”
After a trilateral meeting between Erdogan, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran last week there were no clear developments, it seems that Turkey is still in talks with Moscow, hoping for Putin’s blessing to further put more boots on the ground.
The Kremlin has so far opposed the operation, saying it would not contribute to Syria’s stability and security.
Another attempt is expected next month in the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi, where independent Russian news agency Interfax reported that Putin and Erdogan will meet.
“Erdogan is saying that he would like another [cross-border operation] to [be launched] into Syria and it is clear that he wants to do this before the Turkish elections,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the European Council for Foreign Relations.
“But, as in the past cross-border attacks, Turkey needs a green light from Putin to do this,” Aydintasbas told CNN.
Erdogan’s announcement in May came amid negotiations with the West over Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO, two Nordic countries accused by Turkey of harboring individuals with links to the PKK.
Although Turkey rejected in June its objections to the membership of the Nordic states, it has recently renewed its threats, warning that it could veto their accession at any time if they do not fulfill their agreements ends support for the PKK and its affiliates.
The PKK remains Turkey’s main concern in Syria, and the main reason it continues to cross militarily into the territory of the Levantine state.
Designated as terrorists by Turkey, the US and the EU, the PKK has long been in conflict with Turkey on both sides of the border. After decades of tension with the Kurdish fighters, Turkey has already launched three military operations against the PKK in northern Syria, the most recent of which was in 2019.
The aim has always been the same: to create a 30 kilometer deep PKK-free “safe zone” in Syria that would allow more than two million Syrian refugees in Turkey to return home.
Turkey says its grand plan for the safe zone is not yet complete, and is concerned about a “terrorist trail” left by its previous operations, said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and chairman of the EDAM think tank. located in Istanbul.
The targeted towns of Manbij and Tel Rifaat are technically under the control of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), analysts say.
The SDF is backed by Washington. But its backbone is the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey considers a wing of the PKK.
“Ankara sees no difference between the SDF and the PKK,” Ulgen said.
Washington has already warned Turkey against another invasion, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying that “any escalation in northern Syria is something we will oppose.”
Analysts say that Erdogan takes into account the point of view of the United States, and that the Biden administration may take relevant action against Turkey in retaliation.
“The criticism of the US is important – especially since it can be spilled into other issues like the approval of the F-16s conference,” said Aydintasbas.
Ankara in October requested the purchase of 40 Lockheed Martin Corp-made F-16 fighter jets from the US, as well as other military equipment. The deal is awaiting approval from the US Congress, which remains bitter over Turkey’s previous purchase of Russian missile systems – a move that prompted US sanctions.
The complex web of control in Ankara’s latest area of interest highlights the many agreements that must be settled between world powers before Turkey starts rolling more tanks on the ground.
In the past Erdogan has asked Moscow for permission to enter Syria. Russia essentially controls Syrian airspace and can make a Turkish invasion much more expensive if it wants to, analysts say.
To some extent, Iran’s green light for the Turkish operation would also reduce the risks for Erdogan. But Iran has so far opposed the plan, saying it would be harmful to both Turkey and Syria.
“They can raise the costs of such an operation,” said Rich Outzen, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC and a former US military and State Department official.
But the playing field is different today. Russia is heavily involved in a bloody war in Ukraine and Turkey has emerged as a key mediator in the conflict.
With Turkey’s presidential elections due in a year, some argue that Erdogan is losing popularity as inflation soars and the economy overheats.
“In electoral terms, there is an advantage to be gained from nationalist and other constituencies that want to see refugees return to Syria, damage to the PKK, and the perceived project of the US in Syria under it,” Outzen said.
But the political benefit could be minimal, notes Aydintasbas, because most Turks are now fixated on the country’s economic woes.
“It might strengthen Erdogan’s position by a few points, but that will probably be temporary,” she said. “With high inflation, this is not going to seal the elections for Erdogan.”
Although analysts see the invasion happening sooner or later, there are doubts about the practicality of Erdogan’s aims in northeastern Syria.
“There is no clear exit strategy,” Ulgen said, adding that he believes the invasion is imminent because, at this point, no party can guarantee Turkey’s demands for a PKK-free border zone.
“In the long run, the Syrian government will be needed,” he said. “But we’re not there yet.”
The digest
Iraqi protesters break into Baghdad’s Green Zone, protesting nomination of new capital Read also : Cornyn insists Biden on the PGA investigation, administrative contact with the Saudis.
Hundreds of protesters loyal to Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr broke into the Green Zone in Baghdad on Wednesday, denouncing the nomination of Mohammed Shiya al-Sudan for the post of Prime Minister.
Coordination Coordination Center opens in Istanbul to provide “safe transport” of Ukrainian grain
The goal of the newly opened Coordination Center is to provide “safe transportation” of Ukrainian grain, according to Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar. He also gave more information about how the center will function, adding that Russia, Ukraine, the United Nations and Turkey will send five representatives, who will be a mix of civilians and military.
Macron is hosting the Saudi crown prince in Paris
French President Emmanuel Macron met Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Paris on Thursday, where an Elysée spokesman told journalists that Macron will raise the issue of human rights with the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia.
What to watch
In a moment of national pride, Lebanon knocked out China for the first time ever and made its way to the finals of the FIBA Asia Cup, which takes place every four years. On the same subject : News Wire | Friday, July 29, 2022. The victory provides a glimmer of hope in otherwise desperate times for the Levantine country.
“We come from a broken country, so we want to make our people happy,” Lebanese team captain Wael Arakji told CNN’s Becky Anderson.
Around the region
We may be learning much more about the practices of ancient human settlements in the Gulf. This may interest you : Biden walks on a political and diplomatic rope in Saudi Arabia.
A group of archaeologists from Saudi Arabia and France, in collaboration with the Saudi Heritage Commission, have discovered the remains of settlements dating back to the Stone Age in the Al-Faw Archaeological Area.
The findings included the remains of a stone temple and part of an altar, Neolithic human settlements and nearly 3,000 graves. Archaeologists also found the foundations of four larger monuments and rock carvings that address the gods of the ancient Al-Faw people.
The archaeological team used state-of-the-art technology, such as laser scanning and drones, according to the National.
The Al-Faw Archaeological Area in southern Riyadh is a UNESCO World Heritage site, and these inscriptions may shed new light on the religious practices of the nomadic and semi-nomadic people who occupied bustling ancient caravan cities. Those tribes traded myrrh and turmeric around Arabia, Mesopotamia and the Mediterranean, according to UNESCO.
Preserved for centuries by the harsh desert climate, Saudi Arabia is home to several important UNESCO ancient sites. For example, rock art in the Ha’il region shows human life 10,000 years ago, and there are well-preserved tombs dating back to the first century BC. on the Hegra Archaeological Site.
Discoveries happen regularly and just in January, archaeologists discovered a 4,500-year-old highway network in Saudi Arabia that contained well-preserved ancient tombs.
Time capsule
Today marks ten years since Zaatari Refugee Camp was first opened.
Sitting at Jordan’s northern border with Syria, Zaatari Refugee came into existence in 2012. Its goal was to host Syrians fleeing conflict in their country.
Over the years the camp turned into a functioning city, with caravans, electricity, jobs, and even schools.
Today it hosts nearly 80,000 refugees, mostly Syrians, according to the UNHCR.
Although Zaatari has changed a lot over the years, residents say it is still far from home.
One resident, Rana Muhammad Al-Barghash joined the camp when she was barely one year old. Now 11, the camp is all she knows.
Rana told CNN that she dreams of becoming a doctor one day. Their mother, Amal, said one of the hardest things about living in the camp is watching her children grow up with “no guarantee of the future.”
By Elizabeth Wells and Mohammed Abdelbary
