Russian tanks destroyed in the liberated city of Sviatohirsk
The conflict in Ukraine is about to enter its second year of history. We asked several military analysts how they think events on the ground will unfold in 2023.
Maybe it will be concluded next year and how – on the battlefield or at the negotiating table? Or maybe it will continue until 2024?
‘Russia’s spring offensive will be key’
‘Russia’s spring offensive will be key’
Michael Clarke, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies, Exeter, UK
Those who want to invade another country anywhere across the great Eurasian pipeline are doomed to fail in the winter. On the same subject : $2.8 billion in additional military assistance for Ukraine and its neighbors – US State Department.
Napoleon, Hitler and Stalin all had to march their armies through the cold winter, and now – with his invasion back on the ground – Vladimir Putin is digging up his winter armies to await a new Russian invasion in the spring.
Both sides need a break, but the Ukrainians are well equipped and motivated to continue, and we can expect them to continue the pressure, at least in Donbas.
Around Kreminna and Svatove are very close to a major breakthrough that will throw the Russian army 40 miles back to the next natural defense, close to where February effectively began.
Kyiv is reluctant to stop when the immediate reward is so great. Ukrainian attacks may, however, stop in the south-west, after the recovery of Kherson.
A move east of the Dnipro River to squeeze Russia’s vulnerable road and rail links to Crimea may be more desirable. But the possibility of Kyiv launching a new surprise attack can never be ruled out.
In 2023, an important determinant will be the fate of Russia’s spring offensive. Putin admitted that up to 50,000 of the newly mobilized troops were already on the front lines; Another 250,000 of those who have just been collected are training next year.
There is no limit other than another war until the new assets of the Russian army are deployed on the battlefield.
A short, unstable ceasefire is the only other hope. Putin has made it clear that he will not stop. And Ukraine has made it clear that it is still fighting for itself.
“Ukraine will return its land”
‘Ukraine will win back its land’
Andrei Piontkovsky, a scientist and analyst based in Washington DC See the article : A senior enlisted leader of the JGSDF visited Camp Zama.
Ukraine will succeed in fully restoring its territorial integrity by the spring of 2023 at the latest. Two factors shape this conclusion.
One is the motivation, determination and courage of the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian nation as a whole, which has never been seen before in the history of modern warfare.
Ukrainian artillery near Bakhmut on December 26
The other is the fact that, after years of apologizing to the Russian dictator, the West has finally grown up to realize the magnitude of the historical challenge it faces. This is well illustrated by a recent statement by Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
“The price we pay is money, while the price of the Ukrainian people is in blood. If the authoritarian regimes see that force is rewarded we will all pay a very high price. And the world will be a very dangerous world for all of us.”
The exact timing of Ukraine’s inevitable victory will be determined by the speed with which Nato can deliver a new package of replacement military offensive weapons (tanks, aircraft, long-range missiles).
I think Melitopol will be a key battleground in the coming months (probably weeks). By taking over Melitopol, the Ukrainians would simply move to the Sea of Azov, effectively cutting off Crimea’s supply and communication lines.
Russian forces will be formally engaged in technical talks after destroying Ukraine’s advances on the battlefield.
The winning powers – Ukraine, UK, USA – will shape the new international security structure.
‘There is no end in sight’
Barbara Zanchetta, Department of War Studies, King’s College London Read also : US museums celebrate Ukrainian culture.
Vladimir Putin expected Ukraine to passively accept the actions of its more powerful neighbors, without any implication of other countries. That gross miscalculation led to a protracted, seemingly endless conflict.
The winter will be difficult, as Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will try to break the morale and patience of an already devastated people. But the resilience of the Ukrainians has proved remarkable. They will stand. The war will continue. And about it.
The prospects for negotiations are bleak. For a possible peace agreement, the most important demands of at least one side need to be changed. There is no evidence that this has happened, or will happen soon.
The cost of the war, both material and human, may break the commitment of Russian political leaders. The key will be in Russia.
Previous wars in which miscalculation was an important part, such as Vietnam in the United States, or Afghanistan in the Soviet Union, only ended this way. Domestic political situations occurred in the country that were miscalculated, making an exit – whether “honorable” or not – the only viable option.
This can only happen, however, if the West insists on supporting Ukraine, in view of the growing internal pressure related to the cost of the war.
Unfortunately, this will continue to be a long political, economic and military battle to resolve. And at the end of 2023 it will probably still be going.
“There is no other outcome than the defeat of Russia”
‘No other outcome except Russian defeat’
Ben Hodges, former commanding general, US Army Europe
It is too early to plan a victory parade in Kyiv but all momentum is now with Ukraine and I have no doubt that they will win this war, probably in 2023.
Things will move slowly in the winter but there is no doubt that the Ukrainian army will cope better with the Russians because of all the winter equipment coming from the UK, Canada and Germany.
In January, Ukraine will be able to start the last phase of the campaign which is the liberation of Crimea.
We know from history that war is a test of will and a test of supply. When I see the determination of the Ukrainian people and soldiers, and the urgent logistical situation in Ukraine, I see no other outcome, but the defeat of Russia.
The Russian withdrawal from Kherson partly led me to this conclusion. First as a psychological rise of the Ukrainian people, secondly as a deep shame of the Kremlin and thirdly by handing over to the Ukrainian army an important operational advantage – all the methods into Crimea are now within the range of Ukrainian weapons methods.
I believe that the end of 2023 will see Crimea fully returned to Ukraine and independent although there may be some kind of agreement that allows Russia to remove some of its naval presence in Sevastopol… perhaps even until the end of the agreement. (approx. 2025) ) which existed before Russia illegally annexed Crimea.
Reconstruction efforts will continue in the Ukrainian infrastructure along the coast of the Sea of Azov, including the important ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, and the reopening of the North Crimean Canal diverting water from the Dnipro to the Crimea will be another project. important and getting attention.
‘Expect more of the same’
David Gendelman, a military expert based in Tel Aviv
Instead of “how it ends” here is what each side would like to achieve in the next phase.
Only half of Russia’s 300,000-strong force is in the war zone. The rest, together with the forces released for action after the withdrawal from Kherson, give the Russians an opportunity to attack.
The capture of Luhansk and Donetsk regions will continue but a major Russian advance such as driving south to Pavlograd to encircle Ukrainian forces in Donbas is unlikely.
Another possibility is the continuation of the current tactics – slowly grind the Ukrainian forces in narrow directions and slow advance, such as the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas, with the same possible tactics in the Svatove-Kreminna area.
Continued targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure and other attacks on Ukrainian rearguards will complete this strategic war.
Key Ukrainian forces were also released after the Russian withdrawal from Kherson. For them, the most strategic and valuable direction is the south, to Melitopol or Berdyansk, wanting to cut off the access to the Russian mainland in Crimea. That would be a huge victory for the Ukrainians, and that is the real reason why Russia is consolidating Melitopol.
Another option in Ukraine is Svatove – a victory there would threaten the entire northern flank of the entire Russian front.
The main question is how many free Ukrainian forces are ready for the attack at the moment, and General Zaluzhnyi’s schedule on the table that says how many new reserve and corps brigades are being built is ready for one. , two or three months. from now on including army, armored vehicles and heavy weapons.
After the clay cools, we will find the answer to this question. And this answer will come closer to us “as it ends”.
Analysts are selected for their military experience and their combination of perspectives
How are the allies helping Ukraine?
To date, NATO allies have provided billions of euros in military equipment to Ukraine. All this is changing the battlefield every day, helping Ukraine to protect its right to self-defense, which is enshrined in the UN Charter.
How is the United Nations helping Ukraine? The United Nations and its partners have provided humanitarian assistance and protection to more than 8.1 million people since the beginning of the conflict. So far, more than 6.7 million people have received food aid and nearly 1.7 million have received cash aid.
How are NATO countries helping Ukraine?
Individual NATO member states are sending arms, ammunition and a wide range of light and heavy military equipment, including anti-tank and air defense systems, aircraft and drones. To date, NATO allies have provided billions of euros in military equipment to Ukraine.
How many countries support Ukraine joining NATO?
Being at war complicates the country’s application to join military alliances. The nine NATO countries that have expressed their support for Ukraine’s membership are the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
Is any country giving military support to Ukraine?
The United States is the largest provider of military aid to Ukraine, having pledged $20 billion since the beginning of the Biden administration. $19.3 billion of that aid has been disbursed through February 2022.
Who belongs to NATO?
Thirty countries are members of NATO: United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkey, …
Who all belongs to NATO? Alphabetical list of NATO member countries
- Albania 2009. Belgium. 1949. Bulgaria. 2004. Canada. 1949. Croatia. …
- Denmark. 1949. Estonia. 2004. France. 1949. Germany. In 1955…
- Iceland. 1949. Italy. 1949. Latvia. 2004. Lithuania. 2004…
- Netherlands 1949. North Macedonia. 2020. Norway. 1949. Poland. 1999…
- Slovakia 2004. Slovenia. 2004. Spain. 1982. Turkey. In 1952.
Who are the 30 members of NATO?
Currently, there are 30 NATO member countries namely Albania, Bulgaria, Belgium, Croatia, Canada, Denmark, France, Greece, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Germany, Hungary, Lithuania, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands , Montenegro, North Macedonia, Romania, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, …
What countries are in NATO 2022?
NATO member countries as of March 2022 are: Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, United …
Does Ukraine have nuclear weapons?
Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons. In 1991, Ukraine gained independence and inherited the USSR’s nuclear weapons that were located on Ukrainian soil. At the time, Ukraine had the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world.
How many nuclear weapons does Ukraine have? Ukraine has never had independent nuclear weapons, nor has it controlled them, but it has agreed to remove former Soviet weapons from its territory. In 1992, Ukraine signed the Lisbon Protocol and joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-weapon state in 1994.
Does Ukraine have nuclear power?
Ukraine has 15 nuclear reactors that can operate four plants that produce about half of its electricity. All reactors are Russian VVER models, two are upgraded 440 MWe V-312 models and the rest 1000 MWe large units – two older models and the rest V-320s.
Is there a war going on right now 2022?
On February 24, 2022, the Russian Federation launched a military invasion of Ukraine, escalating the ongoing conflict since Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014.
