It seemed to me that the wildfire activity had been slower than usual at this time of year over the past few weeks, so I did a little digging. Using historical data from the National Interagency Fire Center and acres burned to date from the August 13 national Situation Report, it appears Alaska has burned nearly three times their 10-year average so far while the other 49 states have each other running 12 percent. below average so far.
Over the past 10 years, Alaska’s average acres burned in a full year is 1.1 million. This year they are at 3.1 million, more than the other 49 states combined. There has been a large increase in Alaska acres burned after mid-August in only 2 of the last 18 years. And it’s been fairly quiet there, fire-wise, for the last four weeks.
So far this year, fires in the remaining 49 states have burned about 2.8 million acres, 12 percent below the 10-year average of 3.2 million. The 49 states typically burn 6.2 million in a full year, so if this year is anything like the average of the last 10, we’re about halfway done.
The Situation Report does not break out data for Alaska and the other 49 states, so just looking at their 50 state numbers a person would see that the 5.9 million acres burned to date is 27 percent higher than r average of 4.3 million, the +27 percent figure is actually very inaccurate for Alaska and the lower 49 states.
We usually separate Alaska’s statistics because fires in that huge state are managed very differently than the other 49. Most of them are not completely stopped as they are less likely to endanger people or private property than in the lower 49 states. The second reason is that the occurrence of fire is highly variable, with the acres burned since 1990 varying, for example, from 43,965 acres in 1995 to 6,645,978 in 2004. Including Alaska’s numbers in the total would skew the data on for the other 49 states that do it’s harder to spot trends.
Author: Bill Gabbert
After working full time in fireworks for 33 years, he continues to learn, and strives to become a Fire Student.
