After all the dust has settled from Week 9, the debate over the top spots in the newest college football rankings is only getting more interesting. Also, with seven ranked teams coming off losses on Saturday, there are plenty of spots up for grabs and the potential for big lifts outside the top 25 as voters struggle with tough decisions at the end of the ballot.
The top eight teams in the AP Top 25 poll won, and with Clemson and Alabama eliminated, voters could decide to keep things easy when filling out their ballots. We may not see any major changes when the rankings are updated. But if even a small portion of voters decide their previous thoughts on the No. 1 team. 1 in the country, we could see some adjustments in the top three.
Georgia had 31 first-place votes compared to 18 for Ohio State and 13 for Tennessee last week. (Clemson also gets one first-place vote.) But while the Bulldogs had a significant advantage, the Buckeyes had a very narrow deficit in voting points (1530 points to 1513 points) and Tennessee was slightly off the pace. Ohio State needs a handful of voters to respond to Saturday’s 44-31 win against Penn State with a change at the top of the ballot, and we could see the Buckeyes take over the No. 1.
When Florida had cut Georgia’s lead to 28-20, it looked like No. 31 votes for first place. It won’t be a stunner if Ohio State manages to seize No. 1 because of their best win of the season, but poll inertia usually keeps these things in order among the top teams when the season ends.
The chaos will happen in the rankings outside of the top eight, starting with the reaction to Kansas State’s impressive 48-0 win against a top Oklahoma State team. The Wildcats are slated to be one of the week’s biggest risers, rising from No. 22 all the way to knocking on the door of the top 10, boasting a 6-2 profile with both losses coming to teams with a combined 15-1 record. (TCU, Tulane). Additionally, Saturday’s win against the Cowboys puts the Wildcats in sole possession of second place in the Big 12 standings. Oklahoma State is also certain to see a significant drop because voters will likely cut the margin of victory as much as the loss itself.
While the Cowboys will be favored to fall by losing to a ranked team, the same cannot be said for Wake Forest, Syracuse, Cincinnati and South Carolina. None of those teams should be confident of their top 25 status after an unranked team suffers its second (or third) costly loss of the season, but the turnover in those spots at the end of the ballot will keep some of the losers on Saturday. head into Week 10.
Here’s what we think Sunday’s new AP Top 25 poll will look like.
1. Georgia (Last week — 1): There’s more to criticize than you might expect given the 22-point margin, but that’s because we’re holding Georgia to a higher standard as the champion, the No. 1 team in the country and the enemy of the white-hot Tennessee team next week.
2. Ohio State (2): All season we’ve been waiting to test the Buckeyes, and trailing 14-13 to start the third quarter, it’s fair to say the season was on the line. However, their defense, led by JT Tuimoloau, forced turnovers and even scored points themselves to hand Ohio State its best win of the season.
3. Tennessee (3): We wrote earlier that No. 1 might be worth a few votes. 1 extra with an Ohio State win, but the same could be said for Tennessee. The Volunteers’ offense is unstoppable, but it’s the way the defense creates good opportunities at Hendon Hooker that helps make this group an outright championship contender.
4. Michigan (4): Running the ball effectively and playing a suffocating, dominant style of defense in Michigan’s championship-confrontation form, the Wolverines’ ruthless efficiency on a down-to-down basis going forward bigger. Like Saturday’s 29-7 win against Michigan State.
5. Clemson (5): The Tigers were shutout in Week 9 and will be back in action next week at Notre Dame.
6. Alabama (6): The Crimson Tide was out in Week 9 and will be back in action next week at LSU.
7. TCU (7): Four straight Big 12 wins by 10 points or fewer have made life stressful for TCU fans, but the team itself doesn’t seem to be counting on the cumulative effect of playing in thrillers every week .
8. Oregon (8): Caught in a potential trap at Cal with an early kickoff after the UCLA win, Oregon shook off a slow start and rolled to a late 42-24 victory. Bo Nix threw for six touchdowns (three passing, three rushing) as he continues to make a strong case for the QB1 debate in the Pac-12.
9. USC (10): Although the Trojans led by just two points in the final minutes of the third quarter, a final score of 45-37 will be good enough for the voters to keep them in a similar position with just a slight blow up thanks. with an Oklahoma State loss.
10. UCLA (12): The Bruins quickly bounced back from last week’s loss at Oregon, jumping out to a 24-6 halftime lead and cruising to a straight-set win against Stanford to improve to 7 -1 in total and stay in the top. series of the Pac-12 title race.
11. Kansas State (22): Not only is the 48-0 result against quality opponents worth rewarding in the rankings, the game also requires a reexamination of the Wildcats’ overall profile. TCU has proven to be a special run team this season, but injuries to both of the Wildcats’ top two quarterbacks took a toll on the Corned Frogs’ win against Kansas State. If AP voters act like the College Football Playoff Selection Committee and factor in injuries, Kansas State will check in as the top two-loss team in the country.
12. Ole Miss (15): The Rebels are 8-1 and have reached their bye week after a midseason grind that almost saw back-to-back losses while surviving an upset bid at Texas A&M on Saturday night. The 31-28 victory featured a heavy dose of the running game that made Ole Miss a contender, and after a week off, they will return to action with the biggest game of the year hosting Alabama on Nov. 12. The Rebels are to the their best start since 1962.
13. Illinois (17): This Fighting Illini defense continues to be a monster, and after Nebraska grabbed a 9-6 lead early in the second quarter, the Cornhuskers were shut out the rest of the way in a 26-9 Illinois victory. . It was the sixth straight victory for Bret Bielema’s squad, which would have jumped in the rankings if only for its status as one of the last one-loss teams in the country.
14. Penn State (13): We got to see Ohio State show some vulnerability for the first time in a long time thanks to Penn State, and the ability to get off the mat and keep charging is a credit to the roster. But too many mistakes hurt the Nittany Lions, and the pain of the loss will be felt more inside the locker room than in the rankings.
15. Utah (14): With Cam Rising as a surprise scratch from the lineup, backup Bryson Barnes led the Utes to a tough 21-17 win at Washington State on Thursday night.
16. LSU (18): The Tigers were off in Week 9 and will be back in action next week against Alabama.
17. North Carolina (21): By double digits in the second half, things looked good for the Tar Heels. But Drake Maye continued his impressive freshman campaign with five touchdown passes, and North Carolina improved to 7-1 with a win against Pittsburgh.
18. Oklahoma State (9): After a 48-0 loss at Kansas State, the Cowboys are now 6-2 with wins against Texas, Baylor and Texas Tech. It’s a strong profile, but the stock is definitely falling after losing two of the last three, even though they’re the teams most likely to be in the top 15 by AP voters.
19. Tulane (23): The Green Wave were off in Week 9 and will be back in action next week at Tulsa.
20. Wake Forest (10): We may have seen the single worst quarter of the entire college football season on Saturday as Wake Forest flipped a 14-13 halftime lead with a 35-0 third quarter run by Louisville . There was a pick six, lost fumbles on the next two drives, another interception that led to a touchdown, a lost fumble that led to a touchdown, a punt and then his second pick. Oh, and the first possession of the fourth quarter ended with a fumble. It was a disaster of truly epic proportions for the Demon Deacons, who are now 6-2 with a 2OT loss to Clemson but also a 48-21 loss at Louisville.
21. Liberty (NR): The Flames were extinguished in Week 9, but at 7-1 with the only loss coming to Wake Forest by one point, some additional voters will place Liberty their ballot in the 24 No. or No. 25 spots. The Liberty Ranking is also of added interest with Hugh Freeze leading this team on the road to face Arkansas in Week 10.
22. Notre Dame (NR): Admittedly, putting a three-loss team into the top 25 at this stage of the season is an admittedly bold move, but Notre Dame has a unique profile that could make it a candidate for big jump the radar a in the ratings. Losses to Stanford and Marshall will make it impossible for some voters to consider the Irish, but now there are wins against North Carolina and Syracuse that will have some value, as well as being one of the teams the closest Ohio State has played this season.
23. Syracuse (16): Starting QB Garrett Shrader was injured in Saturday’s loss to Notre Dame, but his availability may not have helped a defense that struggled to get stops against the Irish. The Orange will be on the chopping block for many voters who are now sitting at 6-2 after two straight losses. Ultimately, the wins against Louisville, Purdue and NC State make our prediction that Syracuse is just barely inside the top 25.
24. NC State (24): Third string QB MJ Morris entered the game and threw NC State’s first three touchdowns in a furious comeback from what would be a very bad loss to Virginia Tech at home on Thursday night.
25. UCF (NR): The Knights were already on the verge of breaking into the top 25 before last week’s loss to ECU, so there’s a lot of ground to make up with voters after that loss. We’re predicting that a 25-21 win over Cincinnati, which was ranked No. 20 in the ratings last week, a lot of that big rise. UCF, now 6-2, will be back in contention for those final spots on voters’ ballots.
Projected to leave: Kentucky (19), Cincinnati (20), South Carolina (25)
