The Nationals have two options now that Juan Soto reportedly turned down their 15-year, $440 million extension offer: trade him before the Aug. 2 deadline and restock the farm system with what should be a return of prospects. unprecedented, or make the most of the remaining time with him.
The first option is tempting for baseball fans. Imagine Soto, the best young hitter since Ted Williams, spending the next three pennant runs in the Dodgers’ outfield with Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger and reuniting with his good friend Trea Turner. He dreams of his sweet left-handed shot sandwiched between Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, throwing punch after punch into the Yankee Stadium seats. Think of Uncle Stevie Cohen ordering his front office to make Soto a Met, financial and prospect costs to hell. Consider the sorcery of Jerry Dipoto pulling off his craziest stunt yet and putting Soto in the lineup with Julio Rodriguez as the Mariners finally end their two-decade playoff drought.
But as fun as it is to ponder these possibilities, the most logical option here is the latter. No amount of top-tier prospects can match Soto’s value.
VERDUCCI: Inside the mind of the best hitter in the MLB
So instead, Washington should do everything it can to put a competitive team on the field for the two years left after this one before he hits free agency.
Sound unreasonable? Maybe. The Nationals are the worst team in baseball right now, and reinforcements aren’t coming through their depleted farm system. That also means they have no prospects to trade to competing big leagues. Their tools are limited, but they do have one solid resource they can use to improve their 2023 and 2024 roster: money.
They can’t invest in him long-term, so they should use some of the money they were going to use to extend Soto to build a contender around him while they still can.
The Nationals have a franchise-defining option in front of them regarding the future of Juan Soto.
According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Washington was willing to pay Soto an average annual salary of $29.33 million, which would have started lower and gradually increased over the length of the contract, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Soto is making $17.1 million this season, and he will certainly make more than that in each of the next two years of arbitration eligibility; what he ends up earning in 2023 and 2024 might not be much lower than the extension’s AAV. For the sake of this exercise, let’s say he gets $19 million next year, which is what Aaron Judge is making this season in the final year of his arbitration eligibility, and $23 million in 2024.
Right now, the only three Nationals with guaranteed salaries on the books for the Nats next season are Patrick Corbin ($24.4 million), Stephen Strasburg ($35 million) and Nelson Cruz, whose contract has a mutual option for 2023. If chosen the option and decides to stay in D.C., he will earn $16 million. If he doesn’t return, the Nationals will owe him a $3 million buyout. Either way, they’re looking at a luxury tax payroll of about $79 million before factoring in pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible player salaries. Add that $19 million for Soto and we’re at $98 million.
This year, they are paying roughly $17 million to the rest of their arbitration-eligible players; Suppose next year’s figure is $20 million. Let’s say they have to pay all their pre-arbitration guys a total of $13 million, about $2 million more than this season. In all, that would put his luxury tax payroll at $131 million, or $102 million below the first luxury tax threshold.
What can they do with that $102 million? Well, for starters, they can re-sign first baseman Josh Bell for, say, three years and $36 million, or $12 million per year. That puts his luxury tax space at $90 million. So, go big for an ace. Sign someone like Joe Musgrove, who turns 30 next year, to a six-year, $138 million ($23 million AAV) deal. That leaves them with $67 million to play with.
Even with Musgrove, they still need to improve their rotation, which is by far the worst in MLB this year. So, they sign All-Star left-hander Martin Perez, one of this season’s surprise hits, to a two-year, $20 million deal, and veteran right-hander Corey Kluber to a one-year, $10 million deal, which is $2 million. more than he earns this season. with the Rays. They now have $47 million to play with before they hit that first tax threshold. Let’s beef up their offense a little more, okay?
Shortstop Luis Garcia, who turns 23 next season, is a bright young talent for Washington, but he’s a better fit long-term at second base. So it’s good for the Nationals that there are four great shortstops who could be available in free agency this offseason: Carlos Correa, who can opt out of the three-year, $105 million deal he signed with the Twins in March; Atlanta’s Dansby Swanson, who is the best shortstop in baseball this year according to FanGraphs WAR (4.2); Boston’s Xander Bogaerts, who can opt out of the remaining four years and $80 million on his contract; and Turner, whom Washington traded to the Dodgers just before last year’s trade deadline.
Correa is almost certainly out of the question. He’ll only opt out of his deal if he thinks he can make more than the $35.1 million per year he makes with Minnesota. It looks like Swanson, now 28, will re-sign with Atlanta, but then again, that’s what we think about Freddie Freeman. According to Spotrac, Swanson’s market value is six years at an average annual value of $22.1 million. The added benefit here for the Nationals would also be weakening a division rival. Bogaerts, who turns 30 next year, has greatly improved his defense while maintaining his All-Star-caliber production at the plate. It would be reasonable for a team to sign him for $25 million a year, which is what Marcus Semien makes to play second base for the Rangers, because he has a better track record than Swanson.
Turner’s case is interesting. It seems unlikely the Nationals would decide to give him close to $200 million after trading him last year because they thought they couldn’t afford to re-sign him. But that was when they were still trying to extend Soto. If they think they have no chance of signing Soto after he becomes a free agent, they should consider giving Turner less than half of what Soto was offered. Spotrac puts Turner’s market value at $32 million a year for six years. Give it more years for less AAVs, maybe eight years, $240 million or $30 million per year, and maybe that will do it.
So after signing a top-tier shortstop, whether it’s Swanson for $24 million per year (a little above market value, for this exercise alone) or Turner for between $30 and $32 million per year, at Nationals have $15-$23 million left before that. first threshold. They can use that to improve their bullpen. Some of the soon-to-be free agent relievers include Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Edwin Diaz, Zack Britton (who hasn’t pitched this year as he recovers from Tommy John surgery), Daniel Bard, Alex Colomé, Adam Ottavino and David Robertson. The Nationals can sign two of that group and still stay under the first tax threshold.
Could the Nationals look to meet with Trea Turner?
If they make these moves, their Opening Day roster would look like this:
1.Joe Musgrove2. Martin Perez 3. Corey Kluber4. Josiah Gray5. Stephen Strasbourg 6. Patrick Corbin
1. Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel2. Daniel Bard, Alex Colomé, Adam Ottavino or David Robertson3. Kyle Finnegan4. Mason Thompson 5. Cade Cavalli 6. cole henry
1. Dansby Swanson or Trea Turner – SS2. Juan Soto – RF3. Josh Bell-1B4. Nelson Cruz – DH5. Luis Garcia – 2B6. Keibert Ruiz – C7. Yadiel Hernandez – LF8. Carter Kieboom – 3B9. Victor Robles – CF
Is this a playoff team? Maybe not, but at least it would be competitive. Plus, with a little more roster maneuvering, they could add another major league bat or two to this lineup and stay under the first tax threshold. Then again, nothing says the Nationals can’t get past that first threshold.
The bottom line is that the Nats have the modern Ted Williams on their roster for two more seasons after this one. Unless they traded Soto for Shohei Ohtani, they wouldn’t get a fair return, and certainly no package of prospects short of a historic haul would be worthy of Soto.
Yes, Soto will get a taste of free agency, and the Nationals likely won’t be able to afford him in a bidding war with the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets or any of the other MLB high rollers. But there is a way for them to get the most value out of him while he’s still on the team.
They just need to make an investment in the list and they have already set aside the money to do so.
More baseball coverage• ‘A league of its own’ endures because it’s personal• Unvaccinated Royals expose their lack of commitment• The Rays are falling apart• The AL MVP race is on a historic road• Inside the Matt Carpenter’s revival with the Yankees
