(CNN) Much attention has been paid to the problems President Joe Biden and other Democrats have with major party constituencies, including young and Hispanic voters. And there have been plenty of polls to back that up.
However, much less attention has been paid to possible dips in Democrats’ position among groups whose polls are more limited. Obtaining data on these groups usually requires collecting polls and looking at trends in real elections. For example, I’ve noticed Biden’s declining approval rating among black adults.
But what about Asian-American voters, who made up just 4% of the electorate in 2020? Asian Americans are the fastest growing racial or ethnic segment of the electorate, making them electorally important.
And that’s where we begin our statistical journey today.
A canary in the San Francisco coal mine?
A canary in the coal mine in San Francisco?
My interest in surveying Asian-American voters within the context of the larger electorate came about because of what has arguably been the political earthquake of the year so far – the June 7 recall of progressive prosecutor Chesa Boudin in the deep blue San Francisco.
One major reason Boudin went down: Asian-American voters.
That election result and other data show that Asians generally still vote Democratic, but the party has seen a disproportionate decline in support among this group.
Let’s start with the national poll. As I mentioned above, it’s hard to get national polls that specifically track Asian voters. I would therefore consider these trends tentative.
However, Pew Research Center polls show Biden’s position among Asians has fallen rapidly. It has an average approval rating of 53% and a disapproval rating of 47% (or a net approval rating of +7, without rounding) in 2022 data. Biden won the Asian voters in 2020 by 44 points, according to Pew data.
In other words, his net margin of approval among Asian adults is now 37 points lower than his margin on Republican Donald Trump among Asian voters in 2020.
That’s much bigger than the decline he’s had with the electorate in general. Biden’s net approval score averaged about -14 points in Pew polls this year. According to Pew data, he won the 2020 election by just under 5 points. That places his net approval score about 19 points lower than his margin to Trump in 2020.
A look at the general mood of Congress shows that these trends don’t happen in a vacuum.
Pew’s poll in March gave Democrats a 28-point lead over Asians in the vote test, which asks voters which party they would support for Congress in their districts. That is 16 points lower than the margin by which Biden won them in 2020. On the same generic vote, Democrats and Republicans were equal among all voters, which is only about a 5 point drop for Democrats overall compared to Biden’s margin in 2020. So the dip in Democratic support among Asian voters appears to be about three. times as large as in general.
The Cooperative Election Study, a large academic dataset, showed something similar in the late 2021 survey.
Biden’s net approval score was +15 points among Asians who said they had voted in the 2020 election. The same group said they voted for Biden by +38 points. That’s a 23-point dip.
Biden’s overall net approval score was -7 points among those who said they voted in the 2020 election. He beat Trump by about 3.5 points in this group. This results in a decrease of about 10 points.
This means Biden fell more than twice as much among Asians than among voters in general.
And as with the Pew data, the generic vote, according to the Cooperative Election Study, reflects what Biden’s approval rating would suggest: a disproportionate Democratic decline with Asian voters.
Democrats led the general vote in 2022 by 29 points among Asians who said they had voted in the 2020 election. That’s a 9-point drop from Biden’s 2020 margin.
Of all voters who said they voted in 2020, Democrats led by 3.4 points. Ergo, the margin was the same for the 2022 congressional ballot test as it was for the 2020 ballot test.
This is not just an election phenomenon. Let’s go back to San Francisco, which is in the top 10 US counties with the highest percentages of Asian residents. In particular, we will focus on areas where Asians make up at least 75% of the population.
Support for the recall reached at least 60% in all of these areas and over 70% in some of them, as you can see from the data collected by Chris Arvin.
There was a clear positive correlation between the number of Asians living in a district and how many votes there were to recall Boudin. That was not the case with any other racial or ethnic group.
That same ground still gave the Democratic administration Gavin Newsom more than 60% of the vote in the top two of this year’s gubernatorial primary. It’s not like they’re completely Republican or anything like that.
Queens County, New York, another top 10 Asian counties, is showing similar signs. Check out what happened in New York City’s mayoral election last year. Democrat Eric Adams easily defeated Republican Curtis Sliwa. His 39-point victory margin was the same as Democrat Bill de Blasio’s over Republican Nicole Malliotakis in 2017.
The heavily Asian districts (or election districts) in Queens, New York’s most Asian borough, tell a different story. Adams won territories from Queens that are at least 75% Asian by 16 points. De Blasio won that same quarter by 34 points, according to data collected by Matthew Thomas.
That is, the Democratic margin fell by half between 2017 and 2021.
Again, I’d consider this data tentative, although it’s pretty consistent. And while Asian Americans are a small fraction of the electorate, the fact that their numbers are growing and Democrats need all the help they can get makes this another worrying data point for them in the run-up to the 2022 and 2024 elections.
Biden as Jimmy Carter?
Speaking of Democrats in trouble, it’s not good news for them when a Democrat can reasonably be compared to former President Jimmy Carter in office. But it’s hard not to see some similarities between the Carter presidency and the Biden presidency.
At the most basic level, Biden was elected to restore the dignity of the White House after the Trump years. Carter was elected to restore dignity and confidence after the resignations of Watergate and Richard Nixon.
The Biden presidency has hit a major roadblock, largely due to inflation. Inflation is currently worse than any election year since 1980 (when Carter would lose to Ronald Reagan).
Biden’s approval rating for inflation was 23% in a Fox poll last week. Carter’s was 22% in a July Gallup poll before the 1978 midterms. (Biden’s disapproval rating of 71% is actually higher than Carter’s 66%.)
The accessibility of gas was a major problem for both men. Right now, gas prices are up more than 60% from a year ago, and Biden’s approval rating on the matter is in the 1920s. Carter saw his poll numbers drop due to a gas shortage.
The problems with inflation and petrol have led to a lack of consumer confidence. The University of Michigan’s June preliminary consumer confidence index was lower than it had been since the survey began in 1952. The previous lows were in 1980, just before Carter was defeated for reelection.
Carter’s problems at the time stimulated talk of a primary challenge, as they have for Biden.
Of course, Biden and Carter’s trajectories have their differences. Some are good for Biden and others are not nearly as good.
Carter’s plight within his own party was significantly worse than Biden’s current status. Carter was already trailing in polls for the nomination against Ted Kennedy by this point in 1978. Biden is still ahead of the Democratic field even as he dips below 50%.
Perhaps most relevant to this year, Carter’s net approval score was generally positive (or barely) at this point in his tenure. Biden’s is -15 points.
It wasn’t until later in his presidency that Carter’s popularity hit rock bottom. This allowed his Democratic Party to cut its losses in the 1978 midterm elections and maintain its majorities in the House and Senate.
Biden’s unpopularity, along with significantly smaller Democratic majorities in the House and Senate than Carter had in 1978, is likely to sink his party in these midterm elections.
Put another way, Biden is likely to have a much worse by-election this year than Carter did in 1978.
However, Biden is only in the second year of his presidency, so he has time to turn things around. The worst of the economic crisis occurred in Carter’s reelection year, while the economy’s current difficulties may improve by the time Biden’s name may be back on the ballot, in 2024.
For your short encounters: Happy Father’s Day
For your brief encounters: Happy Father’s Day
To all the dads out there, hope your kids treat you well. Unfortunately, they don’t think your day is as important as their mother’s day.
A 2012 CBS News poll found that 72% of Americans said Mother’s Day was more important to them when asked to choose between that and Father’s Day. Only 13% chose Father’s Day.
Ten percent chose the middle ground (thinking both days were equally important).
Juneteenth knowledge grows: Sunday also marks Juneteenth. This year, 59% told Gallup they have a lot or some knowledge of the holiday. Last year only 37% did. In addition, 63% believe Juneteenth should be taught in public schools — up from 49% last year.
Belief in God hits rock bottom: Another Gallup poll found that 81% of Americans now believe in God. That’s less than 92% in 2011 and 98% in 1967. Only 68% of Americans under 30 and 62% of liberals believe in God.
Twitter is for politics: A new Pew report finds that 33% of tweets from American adults are political in nature. This includes 44% of retweets.
Definition de média Etymology: du latin medium (dont il est le pluriel), moyen, milieu, lien. Un média est une institution ou un moyen impersonnel permettant une diffusion large et collective d’informations ou d’opinions, quel qu’en soit le support.
Was Kafka a nihilist?
Kafka is neither an atheist who denies God’s presence nor a nihilist who questions worldly values and goals. Kafka is a modern individual who is constantly torn between hope and despair. Kafka’s only way out of this dilemma was the writing process.
Is Camus a nihilist? First, as noted in the introduction, Camus dramatizes nihilism by expressing it in terms of its most horrific practical consequences: suicide and murder. In this way he makes the problem itself widely accessible to those who are not philosophical specialists, and emphasizes its scope and importance.
Is Kafka absurdist or existentialist?
|1883 July 3
|Franz Kafka is the son of Hermann and Julie Kafka.
|Publication of A Hunger Artist.
Is Kafka an existentialist?
Abstract. Franz Kafka’s writings invariably consist of existential themes. For Kafka, there is a lot of hope for God, not for people. His writings reflect that people are trapped under a hopeless world and the only escape from it is through death.
Is the metamorphosis nihilistic?
Nihilism is clearly reflected in The Metamorphosis through recurring scenes that portray a bleak theme of self-destruction. Camus, unlike Kafka in The Metamorphosis, presents a strong sense of emptiness in The Stranger to bring out the philosophy of nihilism.
Is Le Monde left or right?
Le Monde is the main center-left newspaper in France. Founded under Charles de Gaulle after World War II, it is the most widely read newspaper, especially outside France. This publication is considered centre-right, somewhat more conservative than Libération.
Is Le Parisien conservative?
Is Le Figaro left or right wing?
Le Figaro has traditionally had a conservative editorial stance and became the voice of the French upper and middle class. More recently, the newspaper’s political stance has become more centric.
What is the difference between Le Monde and Le Figaro?
Le Monde is the most popular but only slightly and is the moderate, slightly left-wing newspaper. Figaro is more conservative in his editing.
What type of newspaper is Le Monde?
Le Monde (English: The World) is a French daily evening newspaper. It is one of the most widely read newspapers in France. His political opinion is somewhat left-wing. In many countries outside of France, this is the only French newspaper available.
Quel est le journal le plus objectif ?
Libération est clairement à gauche, Le figaro est franchement à droite, le Monde est plutôt neutre, mais il faut bien admettre que selon Qui occupe the posts de direction de la rédaction, ça bouge parfois. En tout cas, c’est probablement le quotidien français le plus objectif.
Quel est le journal le plus ancien ? Les plus anciens quotidiens français encore publiés sont, par ordre d’âge, Le Figaro (1826), Le Progrès (1859), La Dépêche du Midi (1870), La Croix (1880), Ouest-Éclair (1899) puis Ouest France (1944), Les Échos (1904) and L’Humanité (1904).
Quel est le meilleur journal ?
“Le Figaro” reste fin 2020 le quotidien le plus lu en France, devant “Le Parisien” and “Ouest France”, relève une étude publiée jeudi.
How do I start reading Kafka?
Start with the parable, “"Before the law”, which you can find in Kafka’s The Complete Stories. It is the very first entry and has less than 400 words. Read it out loud. Then read An Imperial Message, the second story, again under 400 words.