In a recent study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, researchers examined the effects of different recovery pathways from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on human health and environmental and food sustainability.
Background
With the increasing number of COVID-19 infections, governments have imposed intra- and international movement restrictions to contain the spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Nevertheless, under such constraints, concerns arose about the resilience of the globalized food system. Read also : Reconnecting with Old Friends can improve your mental health, and they.
The leading cause of global deaths in 2017 was poor diet. Poor health outcomes usually occur due to the intake of diets high in sodium and low in fruits, vegetables, whole grains, nuts, seeds or omega-3. While research is ongoing into the risk factors and co-morbidities that cause severe COVID-19 and deaths, a link between mortality and diet has been observed.
Healthier diets can reduce weight and diet deaths from non-communicable diseases and reduce the risk of death from COVID-19. In addition, healthier diets can also improve environmental health. Some (modelling) studies have shown that reducing meat intake could reduce the loss of natural land and biodiversity.
About the study
In the current study, researchers estimated the effects of switching to healthier food choices. They used Land System Modular Model (LandSymm) to assess the impact of different COVID-19 recovery pathways on the food system. This may interest you : Oster 10-Cup Food Processor with Easy-Touch Technology review. The team designed four scenarios: 1) solidarity and celery (SC), 2) nothing new (NN), 3) fries and fragmentation (FF), and 4) best-laid plans (BLP).
The first scenario assumed that the pandemic would boost global collaboration, resulting in several vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. Affordable vaccines will be available for low-income countries before the end of 2022. With policy interventions and international awareness of the health and environmental impact of diets, food choices are evolving towards healthy diets in the 2020-40 period, reaching that goal midway through existing trends.
In the NN scenario, international cooperation would deteriorate in 2021 with countries imposing export restrictions on vaccines and countries financing vaccine development and stockpiling. Commitments to low-income countries are rapidly fading, leading to a slow vaccine roll-out in the South.
The pandemic would disappear in 2022 due to mutations that make the virus less transmissible/virulent. Countries are exiting the pandemic and focusing on national interests and growth. The increased risks of COVID-19 to overweight and obesity would be forgotten, leading to no changes in food choices.
In the FF scenario, early promises to collaborate globally would soon be forgotten with the availability of vaccines and countries racing to vaccinate their respective populations. Despite limited and deteriorating cooperation, the pandemic would diminish with priorities for achieving pre-pandemic economic output. Poor cooperation would lead to a lack of action on policies/strategies for future pandemics.
Consequently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant would appear in 2025, causing governments to respond with the same restrictions as in 2020. This would have similar economic effects amid growing mistrust between countries and mounting trade barriers. As such, it would lead to cyclical pandemics. In the last scenario (BLP), countries keep to commitments to pool resources to eliminate SARS-CoV-2.
As a result, the vaccination program would become a global success, with the economy returning to pre-COVID-19 trends by 2023. This would encourage countries to strengthen international health organizations to develop standard guidelines and principles to reduce the risk of future pandemics and health. Nevertheless, global efforts to reduce the risk of renewed pandemics have become inefficient, with a new COVID-19-like pandemic returning in 2025.
Findings
The changes in the prevalence of weight categories and underlying diets increased the premature mortality in the NN and FF scenarios. Additional deaths were higher in upper middle-income countries (2130/million in NN and 2991/million in FF), with small differences in high-income countries in FF (18 fewer deaths/million) and NN (48 extra deaths/million) scenarios. This may interest you : Access to campus food directly improves student health. In SC and BLP scenarios where dietary preferences changed, global deaths dropped significantly, especially in high and middle income countries.
Across all scenarios, the prevalence of obesity and overweight in low-income countries increased in 2060 compared to 2019. The prevalence of obesity was lower in scenarios with changes in dietary preferences than in scenarios without. In the first scenario, the pasture area decreased by 120 megaha (Mha), with an increase in natural land by 119 Mha in 2040. In the BLP scenario, the pasture area increased by 100 Mha, while arable land was almost constant in 2019 the level of 2019. 2060. The increase in grassland area corresponded to an equivalent loss of natural land.
The natural land was reduced by 481 Mha and 322 Mha in NN and FF scenarios by 2060. This loss corresponded to an increase in cropland and grassland. In all scenarios, natural land loss occurred in the tropics, while the increase occurred in temperate zones. Natural land loss was highest in NN and lowest in SC. Nitrogen and irrigation use increased in all scenarios, but were higher in NN than in other scenarios.
In all scenarios and income levels, the share of income expenditure on food has decreased. Low-income countries showed a clear reduction in spending, from 60% in 2019 to 18% in 2060. The impact of all scenarios on the production of various raw materials in 2060 was large. Fruit and vegetable production was highest in SC and lowest in FF.
Stack production was higher in NN and FF than in SC and BLP. Food prices in SC were lower than in other scenarios. The fall in prices was caused by the reduced consumption of expensive products (animal products). The BLP and FF scenarios were characterized by variable prices that could cause food insecurity.
Conclusion
Current model analysis shows that political decisions on recovery plans/policies for the COVID-19 pandemic have a significant impact on global health, food affordability and the environment. In conclusion, COVID-19 emerged at a critical time for the global food system. The four scenarios showed that healthier diets would reduce the negative impact of the food system on the environment and reduce deaths from unhealthy diets.
