The Chinese invasion of Taiwan may fail if the United States helps defend the island – but it would come at a cost that weakens the American military itself, according to a US think tank.
Military experts gathered by the Center for Strategic and International Studies to play a game of war in the conflict said that everyone who takes part in the war – the United States, China, Taiwan and Japan – will suffer heavy losses.
Chinese missiles may destroy US air bases in Japan and as far as Guam, and sink two US aircraft carriers and between 10 and 20 destroyers and sailors as the attack unfolds.
But the invading Chinese army would be destroyed before it could capture any significant part of Taiwan and would ultimately be thwarted in its quest to capture the island’s capital, Taipei, according to a number of factors. tested.
That, along with the damage caused to national targets from the attacks on Taiwan, could damage the Chinese Communist Party’s regime, the report says.
“We came to two conclusions,” said Eric Heginbotham, a security expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
“First, under most circumstances, China is unlikely to succeed in its strategic plans, or stay in Taipei,” he said.
Second, the cost of war would be high for all involved, certainly including the United States.
Wargaming tested 24 different scenarios focused on China trying to conquer the island by invasion in 2026. The key was the United States: without American help, Taiwan would be defeated by the People’s Liberation Army in three months or less.
The war game assumed that the attack would begin with Chinese bombing that would destroy most of Taiwan’s navy and air force in a matter of hours. The Chinese navy would encircle Taiwan and begin ferrying thousands of PLA troops and supplies across the Taiwan Strait.
In what the war veterans called a possible scenario, Taiwan’s military would block the attackers from the beach.
“Meanwhile US submarines, bombers and fighter/attack aircraft, often reinforced by the Japanese Self Defense Forces, are rapidly crippling Chinese amphibious ships, ” the report said.
It said: “China’s attacks on Japanese bases and US surface ships will not change the outcome: Taiwan remains independent.”
Matthew Cancian of the US Naval War College said there are key variables on which that success depends.
He began by saying, Taiwan itself must be willing to fight back.
Second, Japan must give its consent for the United States to launch attacks from its bases on Japanese territory.
Besides, Cancian said, “then US intervention would not be enough to promote Taiwan’s independence.”
In such cases the loss of life would be high, about 10,000 in the first weeks of the war. The war game raised important unknowns, such as whether the United States could risk a nuclear war by attacking China directly.
It also asked whether the public of the US and Japan would be prepared to accept the loss that came from defending Taiwan, saying that the loss of the US could damage Washington’s ability to project global power for a very long time.
The report said: “The United States may win a major victory, but in time it will suffer more than the ‘defeated’ Chinese.”
The report said that Taiwan and the US military need to build forces, focus on survivable and effective weapons, to prevent China’s attack.
“Despite claims about using a ‘porcupine’ strategy, Taiwan is still spending most of its defense budget on expensive ships and aircraft that China will quickly destroy,” it said.
How did China lost Taiwan?
After being defeated in the First Sino-Japanese War (1894-1895), the Qing government signed the Treaty of Shimonoseki, ceding sovereignty over Taiwan to Japan, which ruled the island until in 1945.
How did China go down in Taiwan? In December 1949, the Republic of China Army and the Kuomintang were defeated in the Chinese Civil War, forcing the Republic of China Government to move to Taiwan. To see also : Nicaragua National Day – US Department of State.
Why did Japan give up Taiwan?
At the end of the year, the Japanese government decided to withdraw its troops after realizing that Japan was still not ready for war with China.
Why has Taiwan not claimed independence from China?
The governments of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC) oppose Taiwan’s independence as they believe that Taiwan and China are two parts of the same country. This may interest you : FACTSHEET: Showcasing US Leadership at the United Nations…. For the ROC, such a move would be considered a violation of its constitution.
Did Taiwan ever belong to China?
The island was conquered in 1683 by the Qing dynasty of China and surrendered to the Japanese Empire in 1895. The Republic of China, which overthrew the Qing in 1911, took control of Taiwan in the name of the War Alliance. Read also : From the United States to China, major economies are stagnating. But not India.. of World II after surrendering to Japan in 1945.
When did Taiwan separate from China?
On October 25, 1945 at Taipei Zhongshan Hall, the Japanese government in Taiwan surrendered to the representative of the Republic of China, Chen Yi, the Republic of China officially recognizing Taiwan.
When did Taiwan seek independence from China? Kinmen and Matsu Islands off the coast of Fukien, and islands in the South China Sea currently administered by the Republic of China in Taiwan were not part of the partition. In 1895, after the Treaty of Shimonoseki, Taiwanese authorities declared independence.
Did Taiwan ever belong to China?
The island was conquered in 1683 by the Qing dynasty of China and surrendered to the Japanese Empire in 1895. The Republic of China, which overthrew the Qing in 1911, took control of Taiwan in the name of the War Alliance. of World II after surrendering to Japan in 1945.
Why did Taiwan leave China?
In 1949, after losing control of the Chinese nation in the Chinese Civil War, the ROC government under the KMT retreated to Taiwan where Chiang Kai-shek declared martial law.
Does the US guarantee the independence of Taiwan?
In line with its China policy, the U.S. does not support Taiwan’s independence, but supports Taiwan’s membership in relevant international organizations, such as the World Trade Organization, the Asia-Pacific Partnership (APEC) and the Asia Development Bank. , where statehood is not …
How many countries recognize Taiwan as a country? Taiwan maintains full diplomatic relations with 14 sovereign states, 13 of which are UN member states, while the remaining sovereign state is the Holy See (Vatican City), which is an observer state. United Nations General Assembly.
When did the US stop recognizing Taiwan?
Until the US officially recognized the Republic of China in 1979, Washington provided the ROC with financial aid based on the Foreign Assistance Act, the Mutual Defense Act and the International Development Act enacted by the US Congress.
Who Recognises Taiwan as a country?
Fourteen countries now recognize Taiwan as an ROC (and therefore have no legal relations with Beijing): Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, Holy See, Honduras, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Paraguay, St Lucia , St Kitts and Nevis, St Vincent. and the Grenadines, Swaziland and Tuvalu.
Does the US recognize Taiwan as a county?
| Country | Relationships of the Year |
|---|---|
| Honduras | 1985-present |
| Marshall Islands | 1998-present |
| Nauru | 1980-2002, 2005-present |
What does Taiwan produce for the US?
In 2021, Taiwan exported machinery and electrical equipment with a value of about 36.81 billion dollars to the United States. It was the leading group of products for export from Taiwan to the United States, mainland China, Japan and other countries in 2021.
What is Taiwan’s most exported commodity? The main products exported are: electronic equipment (33.1% of the total), information, communication and audio-video products (10.8%), basic metal (8.8%), plastic and rubber (7.1%), machinery (7.5%).
What products do we get from Taiwan?
Taiwan’s main products are electronics, basic metals and metal products, plastics and rubber, chemicals and machinery. Its main export partners include China (including Hong Kong), the United States, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia and Germany.
What does Taiwan supply to us?
Top U.S. imports of Taiwanese goods include electrical machinery, automobiles, plastics and iron and steel products, according to U.S. government data. Many Taiwan-based companies – such as Apple supplier Foxconn – operate factories in China.
Is the US dependent on Taiwan for semiconductors?
Are U.S. high-tech manufacturers Are they dangerously dependent on Taiwan as a source of semiconductors? The green numbers suggest the answer is yes. Taiwan accounts for 65% of the world’s semiconductor supply, and about 90% of micro and advanced chips.
