China is likely to see an explosion of COVID-19 cases in the coming weeks, experts say, as the country lifts its longstanding and highly unpopular zero COVID-19 policy.
China is extremely vulnerable right now because its population – especially the elderly, who are most likely to suffer from serious illnesses – is under-immunized, has no natural immunity against infections, and has a limited number of treatments.
Experts predict hundreds of millions of infections and up to 1.5-2 million deaths.
“I think China is going to explode in the next six to 12 weeks,” Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said in a webinar Thursday. “Instead of falling off a 5ft cliff, we’re going to watch them fall off a 1,000ft cliff.”
A raging outbreak in China could be bad news for controlling the virus in the United States, he and other experts said, as travelers will arrive sick and mutation risks increase each time a virus infects many. people.
BREAKING NEWS: China announces sweeping easing of ‘zero COVID’ measures
China lifts zero-COVID policy. How will the US be impacted?
Any time a virus spirals out of control, especially in a population as large as China, there’s a good chance new variants will develop, said UMass Chan Medical School virus expert Dr. See the article : Within the geo-politics and the big stakes of semiconductors. Jeremy Luban. .
The variants currently circulating in China appear to be the ones that have been most widespread here, including the omicron BA.5 and BQ.1 sub-variants.
“There’s no particular reason to be concerned except that many infections are bad for the evolution of new things that we can’t predict,” Luban said on a media call on Wednesday. from the Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness. “The more the infection rate can be controlled in China, the better.”
The United States is carefully monitoring infections and variants among travelers, using sewage and other means, Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, told a conference press Thursday.
“If new variants emerge, I’m confident we can address them,” he said.
What’s likely to happen in China?
Model predicts China will see 100 million symptomatic cases, 5 million hospital admissions and up to 1.6 million deaths from COVID-19 alone, not counting strain on the system healthcare that will lead to even more tragedies, said Jennifer Bouey, a RAND. epidemiologist.
She said there are not enough intensive care units in the country to handle this level of demand and she expects the healthcare system to be overwhelmed. See the article : NJ COVID: How 30,000 out-of-state health workers helped amid the pandemic. Blood banks are already experiencing a shortage of donations, she said.
If mainland China were to experience the same death rate as Hong Kong during an outbreak in February and March, more than 2 million Chinese would be expected to die in the coming months, said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, in conversation with Luban.
Why is China so vulnerable to COVID-19 right now?
‘A very hard road ahead’ for China
Following widespread public protests, the Chinese government lifted its zero COVID-19 restrictions on December 1. To see also : Supplying China With Advanced Technology Makes War More Possible – InsideSources.
Bouey said she had seen little evidence that the Chinese government was prepared to suddenly lift its restrictions. A recall campaign this summer would have made a big difference, as well as a substantial pre-purchase of antiviral treatments.
“We see the government starting in the last few days to talk about recalls and antivirals,” she said.
Heath said reversing course now “will further fuel distrust and skepticism among the Chinese people who don’t know how much the government is really telling the truth.”
He and Bouey said they don’t believe the government is accurately reporting COVID-19 cases at this time. Official reports say infections are falling, while social media, empty streets and shops, drug shortages and long queues at hospitals tell a different story.
Still, Hanage predicts that China will have fewer deaths per capita than the United States because it delayed its outbreak until vaccines arrived. “China has a very, very difficult road ahead of it in the coming months, don’t get me wrong, but without vaccination it would be much, much worse.”
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Contact Karen Weintraub at kweintraub@usatoday.com.
Coverage of patient health and safety at USA TODAY is made possible in part by a grant from the Masimo Foundation for Ethics, Innovation and Competition in Healthcare. The Masimo Foundation does not provide editorial input.
Response to Beijing after China eases virus rules
China now only reports confirmed cases of COVID-19 with symptoms detected at public testing facilities. (December 15) (AP Video/Han Guan Ng and Dake Kang)
Will COVID-19 become endemic?
For example, a study published in July in PNAS Nexus suggests that COVID-19 could enter its endemic phase within the next two years. The researchers used rats to collect data on COVID-19 reinfection rates, then modeled the potential trajectory of the virus.
Are we in the endemic phase of Covid? If we get to the point where the virus continues to spread and infect us, but rarely causes serious illness because most of us have some immunity to it, we would say that SARS-CoV-2 is become endemic.
When will the pandemic become an epidemic?
An outbreak can be declared an epidemic when the disease spreads quickly to many people. In December 2019, the news was full of reports of an outbreak in Wuhan, China. Similar to an epidemic, an epidemic is defined as being contained in a small population, but the number of cases is larger than expected.
How do you treat Delta?
Treatment is the same as for other variants of COVID-19. For most people with mild symptoms, you can recover at home by getting enough rest and staying hydrated. You can take over-the-counter medications like acetaminophen and ibuprofen to relieve symptoms.
How long does it take for the delta virus to disappear? Generally speaking, a healthy person infected with the delta variant can expect to need at least two weeks to recover from mild illness and six weeks or more to recover from a more severe infection. .
What medicine to take for COVID Delta?
For most people with mild symptoms, you can recover at home by getting enough rest and staying hydrated. You can take over-the-counter medications like acetaminophen and ibuprofen to relieve symptoms. If you feel short of breath, call your doctor and ask about next steps.
What is the first symptom of Delta variant?
Symptoms of the delta variant are the same Generally, people who are vaccinated are either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms if they contract the delta variant. Their symptoms are more like those of a cold, such as cough, fever or headache, plus a significant loss of sense of smell.
How long is someone contagious with Delta Covid?
You are most infectious (or contagious) within the first 5 days after your symptoms start. You can also spread COVID-19 within 48 hours before your symptoms start.
How has COVID affected the world socially?
During the pandemic, millions of people lost their jobs or income and struggled to pay their expenses, including basic needs like food and shelter. These social and economic challenges affect people’s health and well-being.
What has been the social impact of COVID-19 on the world? The COVID-19 pandemic crisis has caused widespread unrest in society and unprecedented changes in lifestyle, work and social interaction, and the increase in social distancing has severely affected human relationships.
How has Covid impacted social change?
Changes at societal levels Societies around the world have been greatly affected by COVID-19. The economic burden of the pandemic has been phenomenal. This has led to a reduction in gross domestic product (GDP), national incomes as well as a consequent increase in unemployment levels (Pak et al. 2020).
