Lavrov’s Trip Underscores Russia’s Ongoing Threat
Russia’s foreign policy reorientation builds on old partners such as Egypt and Ethiopia and exploits multilateral forums such as ASEAN, the Arab League, the African Union and the United Nations. From military cooperation to energy and goods trade, Lavrov’s foreign tours in Africa and Asia have sought to demonstrate that Russia has partners – if not friends – in different parts of the world.
However, Lavrov’s trip did not prove that Russia has strong allies. Rather, his meetings with African and Asian officials underscored the ongoing threat that Russia’s war on Ukraine poses to the international system — emboldening brutal regimes and contributing to democratic regression. See the article : The United States should send more diplomats to Ukraine, not weapons. With the consequences of the war in Ukraine around the world, it is vital that the United States and its allies work with countries in the Global South to mitigate the impact of the war and counter Russia’s dangerous propaganda justifying its aggression.
Myanmar: Incentives to Cooperate
Lavrov’s visit to Myanmar in early August came less than a month after Myanmar coup leader Min Aung Hlaing’s “private” trip to Russia and less than 10 days after the junta announced it had assassinated four prominent pro-democracy figures. This may interest you : The Pentagon confirms that Ukraine has advanced HARM missiles; 17 Kremlin anti-aircraft systems reportedly hit – KyivPost – Global Voice of Ukraine.
The visit advanced Russian interests in relation to South and Southeast Asia in three key ways. First, it signaled strong support for Myanmar’s coup regime ahead of the East Asia Summit and a series of key ASEAN meetings, disrupting efforts for a much stronger international response to the military’s ongoing atrocities and war crimes.
Second, the visit seemed to promote the growing Russian emphasis on the Indian Ocean region. The two sides have made progress towards energy and economic cooperation, particularly in terms of increased oil exports, financial integration and – most controversially – advancing a joint agreement on nuclear energy cooperation that was signed in July. Having shared status as international pariahs, Russia and the Myanmar junta are likely to find increasing incentives to cooperate, particularly in the energy sector, and could help each other avoid Western sanctions.
Third, Lavrov’s visit promoted the Russia-China strategic relationship by helping to ease pressure on China after Beijing’s series of aggressive and provocative steps to support the junta.
While Russia’s ability to supply the junta with weapons remains questionable due to its ongoing occupation of Ukraine, Lavrov’s visit indicated renewed Russian political support for the junta’s State Administrative Council. Lavrov pledged Russian support for the junta’s plans to end the political crisis, which involve orchestrating fraudulent elections and handing over leadership to the army’s deputy party in 2023. Along with China’s recent moves to pressure the countries in the Mekong region to give bigger legitimacy to the junta and ignore its war crimes, this sent a strong signal to ASEAN states ahead of the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and the East Asia Summit that China and Russia intended to neutralize any efforts to punish the junta for its crimes.
While some analysts have argued that China found these moves by Russia alarming, Chinese businesses have actually used Russia’s recent signals to deepen economic cooperation and build higher levels of Chinese government support for their own cross-border investments.
Earlier this week, the Chinese embassy in Yangon participated in the establishment of the Myanmar Yunnan Chamber of Commerce – which marked the fourth chamber of commerce created by Chinese companies in Myanmar after the coup. Chinese analysts have also made arguments similar to those of Russia regarding support for the junta. Far from a successful “cover” strategy, the involvement of Russia, India and ASEAN states in protecting, legitimizing and stabilizing the junta strengthens rather than threatens the Chinese position.
Meanwhile, the junta and its proxy political parties were quick to play both the Ukraine and Taiwan cards, supporting Russia and China on those fronts. Moscow and Beijing reacted favorably, generating anxiety among Myanmar’s opposition actors that the junta’s appeals to Beijing in the Taiwan issue in particular may lead Beijing to deepen its interference in Myanmar’s domestic politics in favor of the junta.
Egypt: An Arduous Balancing Act
The Egyptian-Russian relationship is considered strategically important for both sides. Historically, Egypt had excellent relations with the Soviet Union. Read also : Why Ukraine Is Worried About US Commitment to War Six Months Later. However, when President Sadat expelled Soviet military advisers from Egypt in 1972, the relationship suffered a major setback – at the time, this was regarded as “probably the most severe defeat the Soviet Union had suffered” in the region.
More recently, relations between Egypt and Russia have faced serious challenges. In 2015, Moscow suspended direct flights to Egypt after a terrorist attack brought down a Russian commercial airliner, which drastically reduced the number of Russian tourists visiting Egypt.
Flights were only restored in 2021 and – before the Russian invasion of Ukraine – 30 percent of tourists visiting Egypt came from either Russia or Ukraine. Egypt was also disappointed that it did not get the support it expected from Russia when Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam was discussed in the UN Security Council in 2021.
However, Egyptian-Russian ties have advanced on several strategic projects. Egypt is the largest wheat importer in the world, and imports about 70 percent of its wheat from Russia. In June 2022, Egypt allowed Russia to begin the long-delayed construction of the $28.75 billion El-Dabaa nuclear power plant. And a more than $7 billion 2019 deal to establish a Russian Industrial Zone in the Suez Canal area has been delayed, but not canceled, as a result of the war on Ukraine and Western sanctions.
In addition, Egypt bought 26 Su-35 fighter jets from Russia. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised the issue with his Egyptian counterpart in 2021, and Blinken’s predecessor threatened Cairo with economic sanctions regarding the deal. Egypt insists on completing this military deal – especially since the US refused to sell F-35 fighter jets to Egypt and refused to equip previously purchased F-16 fighter jets with any viable weapons, rendering them “effectively useless”.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Egypt has struggled to strike a balance between its reliance on Western allies and critical interests with Russia. Egypt joined other countries in condemning the Russian invasion at the U.N., but later abstained from voting on a resolution to remove Russia from the U.N. Human Rights Council. and did not explicitly support sanctions against Russia.
The longer the war drags on, the more Egypt and many other countries in Africa and the Middle East will feel pressure to pick sides, especially amid Russia’s push to ease its diplomatic isolation.
Last July – about a week after President Biden’s meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi – Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov began his African trip in Cairo. There, Lavrov met with President El-Sisi, the foreign minister, as well as the secretary general of the Arab League, and Lavrov’s speech to members of the Arab League generated criticism from several Western countries.
During Lavrov’s visit, President El-Sisi reiterated Cairo’s strong ties with Moscow but explained that he wanted a resolution to the war in Ukraine, because energy prices and global food security stemming from the war were damaging Egypt. Lavrov responded by bringing Western sanctions and calling on the West to “refrain from its actions in the face of the food crisis.” He also blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for declaring that “there will be no negotiations until Ukraine defeats Russia on the battlefield.”
As expected, Lavrov received a friendly reception in Egypt, which was important for Russia to set the stage for his African trip. Although several countries in the West feel that Egypt has been more accommodating to Russia than they would like, they still understand Egypt’s dilemma and interests with both Russia and Ukraine. Egypt, for its part, has continued to try to balance its position by stressing the need for a peaceful resolution, with that balance strained every day as the war is prolonged.
Ethiopia: An Essential Ally for Russia
Ethiopia’s strategic location in the Horn of Africa, which has suffered many protracted conflicts throughout history, makes the East African country an essential ally for nations such as Russia. Ethiopia has used this position to navigate global power competition and maintains an excellent relationship with China, the United States and Russia.
The Soviet Union (and now Russia) and Ethiopia have had long-standing diplomatic relations since 1943 and have enjoyed “cordial military relations” since the 1970s, when the Soviet Union supported Ethiopia’s Derg regime – a military junta that seized power in 1974.
There are no signs that friendship is going to wane anytime soon. With Russia facing sanctions and criticism from the West for invading Ukraine, Russia desperately needs to build new relationships and consolidate existing ones in Africa.
During Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s recent trip to Africa, he visited Ethiopia and met with President Sahle-Work Zewde and other officials, and had a telephone conversation with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to deliver “a personal message from President Putin.”
The meetings themselves were about, among other things, the growing relations between their countries and the need to strengthen them. They agreed to strengthen their economic, humanitarian, defense, trade, scientific and technological relations – with Lavrov highlighting the importance of honoring “Africa’s solution to Africa’s problem.”
Lavrov reiterated Russian support for Ethiopia’s efforts to address the conflict in the Tigray region, promising to respect Ethiopia’s territorial integrity and not interfere in its internal affairs. In turn, Prime Minister Abiy welcomed Russia’s support to contain the insurgency in the Tigray region, especially after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other Western officials accused Ethiopian forces of ethnic cleansing.
During the trip, Lavrov also met with the permanent representatives of the member states of the African Union and the diplomatic corps in Addis Ababa. In an address to the body, he listed Russia’s reasons for invading Ukraine and concluded his statements by saying that Russia is open to negotiations with the West on the basis of equality and without preconditions.
Uganda: Avoiding Ukraine to Bolster Ties
Uganda first established ties with Russia in 1962, followed by a trade agreement in 1964. Both countries have maintained good relations since then, but Lavrov’s trip marks the highest-level Russian visit to Uganda since the two formalized diplomatic relations.
During a joint press conference, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni stated that his country refused to “fight other people’s enemies”, in reference to Russia’s war in Ukraine. But when asked about calls from the West to shun all relations with Russia, Museveni replied: “How can we be against someone who has never harmed us?” and referred to the historical strength of their cooperation – claiming that Russia supported Uganda and the anti-colonial movement on the continent. Uganda was one of several African countries that abstained during a UN vote to condemn the Russian attack on Ukraine.
In Lavrov’s statement on the visit, officials of the two countries expressed satisfaction with their strong trade relations, deepening of parliamentary and inter-party relations, and expansion of cooperation in the education and health care spheres. The sides agreed to boost trade partnerships and implement joint initiatives, particularly around oil refining, agricultural production and infrastructure developments.
In addition, President Museveni referred to Russia’s role in strengthening Uganda’s economy, specifically in refining the country’s rich natural resources, and announced the discovery of 31 million tons of gold ore, which could allow the extraction of up to 320,000 tons of pure gold
Republic of Congo: Russia Tries to Drive a Wedge with the West
Since the Soviet era, the Republic of Congo and Russia have enjoyed excellent relations. Both countries established diplomatic relations in 1960. And in 2019, Putin welcomed Congolese President Denis Sassou-Nguesso in Moscow and underlined the growing and friendly relations between the two countries, especially around trade and oil production. With increasing insecurity in the Central African sub-region, President Sassou-Nguesso did not hesitate to ask for Russian security assistance.
In July this year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made his first visit to the Republic of Congo and met with President Sassou-Nguessou. During the visit, Lavrov made sure to remind President Sassou-Nguessou about the colonization of Africa for Western benefit – a story that Russia has often used to drive a wedge with the West and build ties with African countries, promising bilateral relations based on trust, equality. and respect for the territorial integrity of Africa
Does Russia own Crimea?
In 2014, Russia annexed the peninsula and established two federal subjects there, the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol, but the territories are still internationally recognized as part of Ukraine.
Why did Russia give Crimea to Ukraine? He was ethnically Russian, but he really felt a great affinity with Ukraine.” Sergei Khrushchev, Khrushchev’s son, claimed that the decision was due to the construction of a hydroelectric dam on the Dnieper River and the consequent desire to have the entire administration under one body .
Does Russia have control over Crimea?
Ukraine and the majority of the international community continue to view Crimea as occupied Ukrainian territory. Despite international opinion however, the currency, tax, time zone and legal system all operate under de facto Russian control.
Who owned the Crimea?
After the war, Crimea was downgraded from an autonomous republic to an oblast (region) of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, and in 1954 it was handed over to Ukraine to mark the 300th anniversary of the Pereyaslav Agreement, a treaty that subjected Ukraine to Russian rule. a rule
Is NATO going in to help Ukraine?
Deputy Secretary General of NATO: NATO support to Ukraine is long-term. On Monday (June 27, 2022), in a pre-recorded video message at the Kyiv Security Forum, NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana reaffirmed NATO’s continued solidarity and support for Ukraine against Russia’s unprovoked war.
Why does NATO support Ukraine? NATO has stood with Ukraine since your independence. We significantly increased our support after the illegal annexation of Crimea. When Russia invaded again, it helped make the Ukrainian armed forces stronger, better trained and better led than in 2014.
Does NATO support Russia or Ukraine?
NATO stands in full solidarity with Ukraine. Allies fully support the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, your right to self-defense and to choose your own path.†NATO allies have provided unprecedented military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
Are NATO accepting Ukraine?
At the June 2021 Brussels summit, NATO leaders reiterated the decision taken at the Bucharest Summit in 2008 that Ukraine would become a member of the Alliance with the NATO MAP as an integral part of the process and Ukraine’s right to determine its own future and foreign policy a course without outside interference.
Is Belarus part of NATO?
Belarus did not join NATO because it is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization under the auspices of Russia, and the Security Treaties with NATO regulate the exchange of confidential information affecting the interests of sovereign states.
What are the 30 countries that are in NATO? The current member states of NATO are Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia. , Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, …
What countries are not part of NATO?
Six EU member states, all of which have declared their non-adherence to military alliances, are not NATO members: Austria, Cyprus, Finland, Ireland, Malta and Sweden. Additionally, Switzerland, which is surrounded by the EU, has also maintained their neutrality by remaining a non-EU member.
Who are members of NATO?
Currently NATO has 30 members. In 1949, there were 12 founding members of the Alliance: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Great Britain and the United States.
Is Belarus Russia’s ally?
Among all the CIS countries, Belarus has the greatest rights to such a relationship because of its geographical location, its contacts with Russia, our friendship and the progress of its reforms.” The integration process was launched on 2 April 1996 and exactly one year later, the Union of Belarus and Russia was founded.
How are weapons getting into Ukraine?
Where does Ukraine buy its weapons from? The structure of exports also changed: the main part consisted of high-tech products such as guided anti-tank missiles. The trading of Soviet shares was destroyed – the warehouses were emptied by the war in Donbass. In 2019 the main importers of Ukrainian weapons were India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Are US arms getting to Ukraine?
The Pentagon has transferred more than 7,000 different types of small arms and 50 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine. The United States also committed more than 1 million shells, mortars, and artillery pieces.
Why US sending weapons to Ukraine?
WASHINGTON (AP) – The United States will send an additional $400 million in military equipment to Ukraine, including four more advanced missile systems, a senior defense official said Friday, to bolster Ukrainian efforts to strike deeper behind Russian fronts in the east. Donbas region.
