As China conducts military exercises on the island of Taiwan, allegedly in retaliation for Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei last week, Stanford scholar Oriana Skylar Mastro says Beijing has wanted and expected exercises in the region, they were just waiting for an hour to blame the US
Oriana Skylar Mastro’s scholarship examines Chinese military and security policy in the Asia Pacific region. (Image credit: Courtesy FSI)
Here, Mastro, whose research focuses on Chinese military and security policy and Asia-Pacific security issues, among other topics, explains how the conflict between China and Taiwan escalated in the years after Xinhai revolution of 1911 and why it persists today. Mastro also discusses U.S. relations in the region and how Pelosi’s visit sends a message of deterrence to Beijing.
Mastro is a Center Fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Can you explain the context behind the existing relationship between China and Taiwan?
During the 1920s, 30s and 40s, there was a civil war in China between the Communist Party and the Nationalists, supported by the United States. It ended in 1949 when the communists won. When the Communists won, the Nationalists fled to Taiwan where they established a brutal dictatorship for several years before transitioning to democracy in the 1990s. But their civil war is not over until China has successfully resolved the issue of Taiwan’s de facto independence. It is an emotional and political issue.
How and when did the US get involved?
The United States established a defense treaty in 1950 with Taiwan and continued to support the Nationalists and did not recognize that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) existed.
After the Sino-Soviet split [when the communist alliance between the PRC and the Soviet Union was broken], the United States thought this was a great opportunity to get closer to China. First on the agenda was that there had to be a normalization of relations, which meant that the United States would have to diplomatically recognize the PRC. To do that, they had to figure out what it meant for America’s relationship with Taiwan, and out of that came what we now call the “One China” policy, which was an ambiguous way for both sides to get what they wanted. they wanted Because the United States recognized that the Chinese on both sides of the strait believed that there is one, but one China and Taiwan is part of China. This was not very controversial at the time in 1972 because the Nationalist government of Taiwan also thought that Taiwan was part of China. The disagreement was over who was the legitimate government of all of China. So the US could be ambiguous about whether Taiwan was part of China and still appease the communists.
As a necessary condition for normalizing relations with the PRC, the United States pledged to have no official ties with the Taiwan government and abrogate the 1950 treaty and with it in 1980, the formal defense relationship. But then, in 1979, Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act, which regulated ties between the American people and Taiwan and added that the president should consider defending Taiwan if the PRC used force because , during the negotiations, China refused to promise that it would not. do not use force.
Fast forward to today. Can you explain why Pelosi’s visit upset Beijing?
Click on the map to enlarge. (Image credit: Getty Images)
Because the United States is supposed to have no official ties to the island of Taiwan under the 1979 agreement, the Speaker of the United States House going to Taiwan to meet with government officials is considered by the Chinese as a violation of the agreement. But the United States believes China’s increased military activity and aggression over the past two years against the island is a violation of its side of the agreement. And so both parties feel they are being provoked by the other. Every time China decides to do something aggressive, the US feels they have to show a sign of engagement with Taiwan, and every time the US shows a sign of engagement with Taiwan, China feels they have to be more aggressive.
A big difference from 1979, when we normalized relations with Beijing today, is that China is much more powerful than even the last time a speaker visited the island, which was Speaker Gingrich on 1987. China also feels that the United States is not respecting how the relative balance of power has changed and should be more careful not to upset China, which is another reason why they reacted so strongly.
What message did Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan send?
Taiwan cannot defend itself against the PRC. There is no scenario in which, without US intervention, Taiwan can defend itself against a Chinese attack. It becomes very important for deterrence or stability in the region that everyone believes that the United States will come to Taiwan’s aid. But what Speaker Pelosi, and recently with some comments on Taiwan, President Biden is trying to do is show that they are willing to take risks, willing to accept costs, and that the commitment to Taiwan is real. I think the focus on pointing out US engagement is a bit misguided because China, at least militarily, has the plans for US intervention, but the US telling China that we are intervening doesn’t change any of the China calculation. It just provokes them.
Right now, Chinese rhetoric and Chinese military capabilities have pointed in the direction of China considering the use of force; that’s why people like Speaker Pelosi are doing something to convince Beijing not to.
Do you think it is inevitable that China will invade Taiwan, and what would that mean for the United States?
I can’t predict the future, but given current trends, it seems unlikely that they won’t. This means that there would be a major war between two powers in the most important region of the world. It would be huge, economically and politically, at a huge cost to everyone.
What worries you the most?
I am very concerned that China will move quickly with little early warning and we are left with a very difficult decision, like weighing whether to defend Taiwan, even though we would probably lose or do nothing. The amount of notice tells us how many good options we have, and if we don’t have good options, the situation could play out in a way that the United States doesn’t like.
Is there anything you think has been misunderstood about the topic?
I think people don’t understand how much China wants and needs to test its military capabilities. China was going to do something like this regardless of Nancy Pelosi’s visit – they were waiting for an opportune moment to blame it on America.
