Welcome to today’s Morning Brief, where we look at where the top carbon emitters stand to meet climate goals, Blinken meets Japan’s Hayashi, and Senegal heads to the polls.
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The United States leads a slow race for the climate
Welcome to today’s Morning Brief, where we look at where the top carbon emitters stand to meet climate goals, Blinken meets Japan’s Hayashi, and Senegal heads to the polls.
If you want to receive the Morning Brief in your inbox every day of the week, sign up here.
The United States leads a slow race for the climate
After multiple false starts, the United States appears to be gaining momentum to meet its climate goals.
News that Sen. Joe Manchin, a previous stumbling block to climate legislation, will now support $369 billion in new energy and climate spending has changed the outlook. The money is intended to incentivize a range of clean energy initiatives, from power plants to making electric cars cheaper.
There are still many things that could go wrong, and considering that the price has gone from trillions to the current figure, the result is not defined. Manchin could still back down, another unstable Democratic senator, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, could also file opposition, and the House of Representatives could not agree with the Senate bill.
Although it is the largest climate bill in US history, it is also not enough to meet the Biden administration’s goal of 50 percent fewer emissions by 2030. Without doing anything new, it was estimated that the US The US is on track to cut emissions by 25-35 percent. during that period, according to analysts at Rhodium Group. The new measures, according to a new analysis by Rhodium, raise that range to between 31 and 44 percent, but together with executive and state-level action, that could push the United States down to between 50 and 52 percent. percent.
That the goals are within reach is more than can be said for other polluting countries, very few of which are on track to make similarly important changes by the end of the decade. Of the six biggest polluting powers, which together account for more than half of global carbon emissions, only the European Union is ready to meet its set climate goals, according to the Climate Action Tracker.
China plans to do the opposite and will continue to increase its emissions until 2030, when it plans to start reducing them to total net zero in 2060, ten years later than most developed nations.
How many more tons of carbon China will emit between now and then depends on a number of factors, including the steps Beijing takes to emerge from its economic slowdown and how quickly it can benefit from investments in its clean energy sector. That industry is already poised to break records again, as solar and wind energy additions will exceed last year’s installations by 25 percent.
How India, the fourth largest emitter, plans to transition to a net-zero emissions future is only partially clear. Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged last year to bring the country to net zero by 2070, but his government is nearly a year behind in submitting its commitments to the United Nations.
Although India is making leaps and bounds in adopting clean energy, more investment is needed. An analysis by Standard Chartered estimates that the country will need $12 trillion in foreign investment to reach net zero by 2060.
Russia, fifth on the emissions list, is also falling behind. Unsurprisingly for a country so reliant on fossil fuel exports, its current plans do not call for a reduction in sales, instead relying on its vast forests to offset its emissions.
Climate analysts have derided Russia’s plans to double its negative emissions from forestry between 2030 and 2050 as a case of creative accounting; Guidelines from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) call for only managed forests to be included in climate projections, but Russia’s inclusion of its wild forests has helped boost their numbers.
Brazil is likely to take drastic measures to address its position as the sixth largest emitter depending on the outcome of the presidential elections in October. Like his far-right colleagues elsewhere, current President Jair Bolsonaro has put climate action on the back burner. His challenger, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has a checkered past on the environment but has begun to weave climate action into his campaign strategy, copying successful candidates in the region such as new Chilean President Gabriel Boric and President-elect from Colombia Gustavo Petro.
Even if other countries aren’t moving quickly, the surge in US climate support may make it easier for US officials to make their case abroad. “You can’t preach temperance from a bar stool, and you can’t ask China, India, Brazil or other countries to cut emissions if we’re not doing it ourselves in a meaningful way,” said US Senator Ed Markey. to the New York Times. York Times.
Links between the United States and Japan. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken hosts his Japanese counterpart Yoshimasa Hayashi for a bilateral meeting and talks under the auspices of the Japan-US Economic Policy Consultative Committee. Blinken will continue his focus on Asia until next week when he travels to Cambodia for a meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers.
Ukrainian grain. UN aid chief Martin Griffiths said on Thursday that grain shipments from Ukraine could resume today, but details of the exact coordinates of the shipping routes are still being finalized. Some trade hurdles also arose after the Ukraine-Russia deal, including insurance for the ships and finding sailors to man them.
Human rights in Ethiopia. A three-person team of experts sent to Ethiopia by the UN Human Rights Council is to release a statement on Saturday outlining the findings of a six-day investigation into human rights violations in the country. The trip is the first time UN-appointed experts have visited the country since the Tigray conflict erupted in late 2020.
Elections in Senegal. Senegalese voters head to the polls on Sunday to take part in legislative elections, which had originally been postponed from 2019. As Nosmot Gbadamosi wrote in this week’s FP Africa Brief, a good result for President Macky Sall’s party, which has an absolute majority, could encourage him to run for a controversial third term in 2024.
The German city of Hanover appears to be taking threats to Europe’s gas supply more seriously than others, as it unveils a series of measures to cut energy consumption by 15 percent citywide.
Swimmers in public pools will only be able to access cold showers, public fountains will be turned off, night lighting will be turned off, and thermostats will be set to a maximum of 68 Fahrenheit (20 degrees Celsius).
If the summer heat becomes too much, those showers can come in handy: Portable air conditioners are also banned under the new measures.
