(CNN) Nobody can look weak.
The recent US clash with China was triggered by the disclosed plans for a possible visit by House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan – and is particularly dangerous as it is fueled by domestic politics on both sides of the Pacific.
The dispute is exacerbating the already weak relationship between the US and China as their struggle for 21st-century superpowers takes shape. It also complicates the talks expected Thursday between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Taiwan has long looked to be the most likely spark of military escalation between the US and China.
Within the complex network of agreements governing relations with Beijing, Washington only officially recognizes the People’s Republic of China, but maintains close ties with Taiwan, a self-governing democracy over which China claims to sovereignty.
The US policy of strategic ambiguity has left it unclear what it would do if China ever invaded Taiwan, partly to avoid encouraging a formal declaration of independence by the Taipei government. But the United States has a legal obligation to offer Taiwan a means of self-defense.
China has vigorously warned that it will take “firm and firm” measures in the event of Pelosi’s visit. An attack on her plane is unthinkable. But in Washington, it is speculating that China could track its American fighter plane and even send the plane over Taiwan – a very unstable scenario that could be miscalculated.
Given such rhetoric, it would be difficult for China not to take unprecedented measures had Pelosi actually visited. Xi has little room for de-escalation ahead of the party’s national congress later this year, which is set to confirm his remarkable third term.
Biden, perhaps unreasonably, revealed that the US military was not thrilled with Pelosi’s visit. Now, if he persuades a speaker not to go, he will be accused of backing down to the Chinese, a charge that no US president can stand – especially one whose support has fallen below 40%.
Pelosi, the third-person ranking by the US government, has fought China for 30 years for human rights, and is not the type to intimidate. As the Democrats are doomed to lose in the mid-term elections in November, the House will be reluctant to see one of her last great plays on the international scene be a descent to Beijing.
According to CNN reports, the White House, hoping to avoid offending the Democrat icon and aware of political vulnerability in an attempt to empower another branch of government, spoke with Pelosi behind the scenes about the risks of her trip.
On Capitol Hill, council hawks come from both sides of us.
“We should not allow them to bluff and dictate to America, the greatest nation in the world, where our House President should travel to,” California-based progressive Democratic Ro Khanna told CNN’s The Situation Room on Tuesday. “I mean, who are they to say Speaker Pelosi shouldn’t go to Taiwan?”
Republican minority leader Kevin McCarthy intervened, saying Pelosi “should not back down now.” He also said he would lead a Congressional delegation to Taiwan if he became a speaker next year – although such a visit would potentially be less explosive than Pelosi’s as Biden could argue to the Chinese that rival Republicans do not represent his policies.
Given the political tensions on both sides, it’s hard to imagine how Biden and Xi could ease the situation.
Things can get risky if Xi asks Biden to prevent visiting Pelosi. Biden has no power to make that happen. But the Chinese leader may be offended if the speaker goes on a journey, which will undermine the trust even more.
China, which is increasingly capable of the military, is also watching high-profile two-party calls in the Capitol to abandon strategic ambiguity, and the United States has simply stated that it will defend Taiwan. Biden did not help by repeating the statements that circulated throughout politics over and over again – only to have advisers return to them.
Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the best that could come of the call was perhaps a mutual understanding of what exactly China would do if Pelosi left.
“I hope there is something the Chinese can give us when it comes to understanding how China can respond so the US and Taiwan can plan a way that does not cause more escalation in this dynamic,” Lin said.
But China may not yet know how to react, she added. And he may not be interested in the steps that alleviate the situation.
Much depends on what Pelosi decides to do.
