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The US travel industry expects this holiday season to be busy enough to make last summer’s turmoil seem orderly.
Airport officials and industry analysts said passenger traffic for the November 24 Thanksgiving holiday through New Year’s would reach or exceed 2019 levels, when 93 million people packed US flights. This summer, the desire to continue vacations and visit family increased passenger traffic to about 90 percent of pre-pandemic levels, according to an analysis of Bloomberg Transportation Security Administration checkpoint data.
“We’re all going to look back on 2022 as the year most airports really come back in full force,” said Doug Yakel, spokesman for San Francisco International Airport.
The total number of airline customers in North America this year is projected to reach 94 percent of pre-pandemic levels, according to the International Air Transport Association. In 2019 – the year before Covid hit – US airports handled a record 1.1 billion travelers, according to the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, although that number included people on domestic and international flights.
Rising demand means passengers will pay prices at the ticket booth: the cost of airfare around Thanksgiving time is up 43% from a year ago and 22% from 2019 levels, according to travel booking app Hopper.
As in the peak summer months of May to August, holiday travelers are likely to face delays at the departure gate, limited flight availability and baggage snafus. While airports are racing to add staff, airlines are still facing a shortage of pilots and other workers. Winter weather in the US and the usual increase in demand to fly during the six-week holiday window could add to the woes of travelers.
Chief Executive Officer of United Airlines Holdings Inc. Scott Kirby said along with insufficient pilot numbers, operators faced a need for more planes as supply chain problems caused by the pandemic caused Boeing Co. and the Airbus SE lags behind in production.
Meanwhile, demand continues to grow, helped by hybrid models of working from home and offices that allow people to travel more, he said in an Oct. 19 interview with Bloomberg Television.
“It’s just a new permanently higher level of demand,” Kirby said. “It makes every weekend a potential holiday weekend.”
Read more: The 10 Worst US Airports for Flight Cancellations This Summer
Coming holiday, tourist stress may depend on their departure and arrival locations. During the summer, airports in Miami, Las Vegas, and Orlando experience the largest increases in traffic.
The number of travelers passing through Miami International Airport jumped 13% in May, June and July compared to the same period in 2019, according to an analysis of airport passenger data from the top 20 US airports compiled by Bloomberg. Holiday and business hot spots saw the biggest gains, data showed.
For now, both San Francisco International Airport and Los Angeles International Airport remain about 25% below pre-pandemic traffic levels. Flights to Asia, particularly to China and Japan, have been reduced by Covid travel restrictions and geopolitical tensions, LAX Chief Executive Officer Justin Erbacci said in an interview.
However, LAX will deploy additional air traffic controllers, guest experience teams and other staff to manage what is expected to be the largest holiday travel season since the pandemic began, said Heath Montgomery, director of public relations.
“I’d be surprised if we didn’t set a post-pandemic record at some point this winter around Thanksgiving or Christmas,” Montgomery said.
Officials in other cities forecast air traffic growth from major events over the holiday period. Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas, which broke passenger records this summer, is preparing for the Consumer Electronics Show in January, said Rosemary Vassiliadis, director of aviation. CES attracted 171,000 attendees just before the pandemic.
While scientists predict that at least one variant of the virus will cause a new wave of infections sometime this year, air travel industry experts say the rollout of vaccines and other safety measures means travel is likely to remain high.
“People who haven’t had a family vacation in a while — this year, they will,” said Bill Wyatt, executive director of Salt Lake City International Airport. “I expect a very busy season.”
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