There were some predictable, horrified reactions to the NCAA Division I Transformation Committee’s official set of recommendations released Tuesday. The most notable proposal is the option for D-I sports with 200-plus teams to allow championship groups to fill with as many as 25% of that sport’s membership. In college basketball, that means the console can grow as large as 90 teams.
But the NCAA Tournament will not expand to 90 teams.
I doubt it will expand at all – at least not anytime soon. My belief is supported by conversations with a handful of senior sources across the industry.
“When you’re 90, you’d be rolling on the floor laughing at the quality of the teams,” an NCAA source said. “It’s inconceivable that anyone could think that’s a good idea.”
There is a strong belief among many NCAA Tournament power brokers that significant expansion (say, anything north of 80 teams) is not desired and will not happen, according to my sources. Smaller expansions (going to 72 or 76) don’t appeal right now either, but would theoretically be more plausible down the road if push ever came.
“There has been no consideration, despite opportunities several times, for expansion,” another source said. “It’s never been given serious consideration. Not even remotely.”
It is a part that is missing in this discourse. The NCAA did not need the Transformation Committee’s permission to consider expansion. It’s always a possibility. The fact that it has never grown beyond 68 speaks volumes, especially after a trial balloon of a 96-team tournament was ridiculed in 2010.
Expansion is not something that can be done over a few long Zoom meetings. It would take years of planning and thousands of hours of coordination between dozens of very important people. Who ultimately decides? Division I men’s basketball committee (i.e. selection committee members) who have logically opted out of expansion for the past 12 years. NCAA senior vice president of basketball Dan Gavitt, who oversees that committee, would be the biggest voice in the room, in addition to other senior NCAA staff. From there, the Men’s Basketball Oversight Committee would have to approve any changes before a vote went to the board.
But that’s not in the plans right now.
In addition to countless logistical changes to consider, there is a huge television contract to consider. CBS and Warner Bros. Discovery Sports shares men’s March Madness rights until 2032.
Going forward, remember that whatever change is made to the men’s tournament, it will also be made to the women’s. If you expand the men’s field to 72, the same will happen to the women, especially in the wake of the NCAA’s equity review following the public relations disaster the NCAA brought upon itself in 2021 regarding inequities in women’s basketball.
In addition, skepticism abounds in the halls of the NCAA: more teams equals more money for the organization’s coffers. This is a bottom line business. The men’s NCAA Tournament is the only money-making championship owned by the NCAA. (The College Football Playoff is not an NCAA-governed event.) The women’s tournament runs annually in the red. More games means more costs and more money to split among more schools until at least 2032. It’s not a result that many in college athletics find satisfactory. Related to this, there are ongoing discussions about how tournament money should be changed/divided in the current system.
“The assumption that there’s a whole lot more money is a dubious assumption at best,” an NCAA source said.
So why is it even up for discussion? I have previously explained why here. The NCAA has dissent within its ranks.
While the CFP had an understandable push to expand (even then it was a quagmire), it went from a three-game tournament to an 11-game event (starting in 2024). The men’s and women’s tournaments already have 67 matches. Each added has marginal, decreasing value. We already have the best teams included. Adding more increases quantity but not quality. Putting 80-90 teams in a bracket would give rise to scheduling and calendar conflicts, not to mention ruining the natural shape of the bracket, a cosmetic appeal that plays a role in luring the most casual fans.
“Logistically, I think it would be a big challenge because of the number of days that are even available to do it,” a source said.
More key context: No one on the transformation committee (or the subcommittee that focused on championships) ever served on the men’s basketball committee. They don’t understand most of what it takes to make the big dance succeed each year—the hundreds of levers that have to be pulled, the enormous logistical nature of getting it right.
The tournament is a unicorn in that respect. Nothing matches it. The NCAA as we know it only exists, with hundreds and hundreds of schools that have dozens of scholarship sports, because of how financially successful and vital March Madness has become over the past four decades.
Recommendations be damned, a lot of people aren’t looking to mess with it.
“If you expand, you’re letting in very marginal teams,” one source said. “It’s extremely competitive because it’s incredibly curated. The more you expand, you run the risk of having less competitive games. You can upset the balance of what makes it so special.”
Is Nick Smith Jr.’s college career already over?
This sport has been robbed of sweet one-and-done talent, and I’m not talking about guys who skipped college entirely. On the same subject : Best in College Sports: Michigan Goes Through the Competition to Claim the Award for the 2021-22 Athletic Season. Michael Porter Jr., James Wiseman, Shaedon Sharpe, Darius Garland, Harry Giles and Kyrie Irving are just a few of the former five-stars who made a pit stop at this level, only to have their college careers cut short due to injuries /other problems.
The next future lottery pick on this trend line is Arkansas’ Nick Smith Jr. The Class of 2022’s top player, Smith is dealing again with a right knee problem that has plagued him dating back to Arkansas’ trip to Europe this summer.
Smith made his college debut on November 28th and last played on December 17th. On December 21, the school announced that he was out indefinitely due to “right knee treatment”. There’s a chance Smith could get healthy and confident enough to return to Arkansas — and that’s certainly what coach Eric Musselman is looking for — but Musselman told CBS Sports there’s no timetable for a return, only that he hopes Smith comes back.
“We’re here to support, we’re here to help him in any way we can to get him drafted as high as possible,” Musselman said. “If he rehabs his knee and isn’t [ready], I trust him.”
At the NBA level, however, speculation is mounting as to whether Smith actually intends to play again for Arkansas. Much of this speculation is linked to Smith’s representation, Klutch Sports Group. Rich Paul runs Smith’s NIL deals; he figures to be his agent when Smith is inevitably drafted in the top-10. Some believe that Smith is the best NBA prospect in college basketball, even though he is not currently playing college basketball. And given Klutch Sports’ history of handling prospects, there is staggering confidence that Smith will play competitive basketball again until Summer League.
“Look at his agent,” an NBA general manager told CBS Sports. “The odds are probably against him coming back because that’s the way Rich is. Klutch had Darius Bazley and held him out. They had Darius Garland and they shut it down.”
Several NBA evaluators told CBS Sports they view Smith as a top-10 pick, maybe top-seven, even if he never suits up for Arkansas again. Not playing could hurt his stock with some NBA teams and cause him to slide, but it’s unlikely he would fall far. Part of why is not just Smith’s talent, but his character, which is well-regarded in NBA circles. He’s constantly around the team, and several scouts who watched Arkansas in Maui in November (where Smith didn’t play) said he was an engaging presence on the bench.
Arkansas’ cap will undoubtedly be affected if Smith can’t or decides not to come back. The 13th-ranked, 11-2 Razorbacks host No. 20 Missouri on Wednesday night in a big SEC game. The Hogs have been hampered without Smith and Trevon Brazile, another NBA prospect whose season is over after tearing his ACL in early December.
“I love our team, love our energy, love how hard we play,” Musselman told me. Arkansas, with six freshmen on the roster and only two returners, got just one game this season with its full roster available (due to Brazile, who definitely won’t be back). The SEC has five ranked teams and seven listed in the top 40 by KenPom. It’s getting tougher.
“We built the roster around them and tried to make the pieces fit, and unfortunately it’s been unfortunate,” Musselman said of Smith and Brazile. “We haven’t had the roster that we thought. One injury is sustainable. Two injuries, your team is still adjusting, but the work ethic, practice has been good.”
A big concern is 3-point shooting. Arkansas ranks 319th nationally. Brazile and Smith should be the guys making the majority of those shots. If Smith doesn’t return, it will be a bummer for college basketball (he’s such a tantalizing talent) and taxing for an Arkansas program coming off back-to-back Elite Eight runs and looking to break through this year to his first Final Four since 1995.
No. 23 Charleston off to best start in history
Monday’s AP Top 25 included Charleston at No. 23, marking the first time in more than 20 years that the Cougars have been ranked. On the same subject : Spain vs. United States – Football Match Record – October 11, 2022. At 14-1, Charleston is off to its best start ever; the school joined D-I in ’91. Not only is this its best start, it’s the best 15-game streak by a CAA program since Richmond went 16-1 in the mid-1980s.
A stunner: Before Monday, the last time a CAA team ranked Navy was in January 1987 — 36 years ago. I could not believe it. Triple checked. (It turns out that former CAA residents George Mason and VCU cracked the Coaches Poll, but never the AP.) The Cougars brought back two of the CAA’s top freshmen in Reyne Smith and Bennie Burnham. Dalton Bolton broke his foot in the team’s third game last season and sat out. Now the 24-year-old leads the team in scoring and is one of five averaging double figures. They have perhaps the best defensive player in the conference, Jalen Scott, in addition to a Wofford transfer in Ryan Larson, who arrived in Charleston last year with more than 100 college wins to his name.
The man in charge is Pat Kelsey, who is in his second season after overseeing Winthrop for nearly a decade and winning 186 games there. Kelsey has Charleston on a 13-game winning streak, the longest in the nation.
“Tough as shit,” Kelsey told me of her team. “What we’re doing defies human nature. We’re playing 10 guys and they’re all bought up and all selfless.”
The Cougars have a chance to build a big resume thanks to owning five wins over 2022 NCAA Tournament teams. In fact, Charleston’s first six games came against tournament teams, and the non-con schedule included seven games against top-140 KenPom opponents.
That’s not normal for a program like this. Most middlemen with the ability to build a largely decent resume don’t get non-conference schedules with that many options. Basically, the coaches didn’t think Charleston would be this good. Kelsey and his staff kind of took a quick one.
“You said that, not me,” Kelsey joked. “Coming to Winthrop, I’m young, it’s my first head coaching job, and guys tell me how hard scheduling is. My first year I was like, ‘This is the easiest thing ever.'” Well, our first year there we not good and everyone wanted to play us.”
Not so for Winthrop soon after and perhaps not for Charleston moving forward. Assistant Brian Kloman handles Charleston’s scheduling with some assistance from AD Matt Roberts.
“When they put this thing together, they came to me and I was like, ‘Are you sure?’ I thought they were crazy at times, but looking back on it, they’re pretty smart,” Kelsey said.
It might pay off with NCAA Tournament seeding 10 weeks from now.
In October, Charleston was picked fourth in the CAA preseason poll. Kelsey liked the team but never expected 14-1. However, high winnings are nothing new there. Nineteen of Charleston’s 32 seasons have ended with 20-plus wins. Due to its location, amenities and fan base, the job has long ranked in the upper tier of mid-sized gigs. Home sales are now part of the experience at TD Arena.
“Virginia Tech was on fire. The roof came off this place,” Kelsey said.
Charleston won that game, its best W this season. This team’s only loss is at North Carolina. The Cougars are giving up 80.5 points and sinking 10 3s per game. match. They play at North Carolina A&T on Wednesday night at ET on CBS Sports Network.
@ me
The court report’s mailbag! Find me, ask me a question and I’ll answer some every week. On the same subject : Accepting defeat in this year’s national battle between winter sports.
The confidence level with North Carolina is a moving target. The 9-5 heels were clipped at Pitt on Friday. UNC’s two biggest problems: inconsistent 3-point shooting and spotty team D over 40 minutes. You should be half-sure the Heels will get it together in ACC play enough to have a tournament resume, but two months into the season, it’s fair to say it would be a genuine surprise if the preseason No. 1 -team in the country finished atop its conference ledger.
It’s a good analog. Last April, as I do every year, I reviewed all the high-profile hires from the previous four years. Penny Hardaway has received a B-minus. After escaping major IARP punishment and getting off to an 11-4 start this season, I’d bump it up to a B through 4.5 seasons. It hasn’t been an outright success, and there’s been some melodrama off the field, but he’s clearly done a solid job as a first-time coach. Hardaway is 96-47, his first tournament appearance coming last year. Forward, I don’t know. Memphis is coming off a loss at Tulane. The Tigers are 1-1 in Quad 1 games and may need to finish second to Houston in the American to validate at-large status. I think Deion equals this in Colorado, FWIW.
Matt refers to our list from the beginning of the season, where we collectively ranked the 26 best men’s coaches. Given Michigan’s problems, I think Howard wouldn’t make that list now (and wasn’t on my ballot then). I think it’s a fair and winnable argument that Greg Gard and Shaka Smart are better coaches than Howard, and it’s fair given how much more experience they have at this point. Michigan does not qualify as a tournament team at the moment, while Wisconsin is 11-2 and Marquette is 12-4. In October, it was also not popular to dance in 2023, but both are now on their way. I wanted Gard and Smart both somewhere in my 28-35 range.
Final shots
• David Teel shows again why he is one of our top college basketball writers. Here’s a long piece on former Virginia coach Terry Holland, who has battled Alzheimer’s for nearly four years and has been unable to watch Tony Bennett continue to lift the program Holland built into a national power 40 years ago since. Bennett is tied with Holland for most wins in UVa history (326).• With New Mexico losing late Tuesday night, no undefeated remain. Here’s a modern-day story of how the last undefeated standing is doing when March arrives. • A quiet resignation during the holiday week: Jay McAuley resigned at Wofford. I was told that players went to school administrators and asked for a change. Dwight Perry will coach the team for the rest of the season. • Rutgers’ win at Purdue on Monday wasn’t just a case of an undefeated No. 1 team going down, it also marked the first time a team has ever ended the undefeated season of a top-ranked league foe in consecutive years. • Rutgers win at Mackey Arena is a top W this season. According to KPI, here are the top non-conventional wins through the first two months of the season: 1. Kansas @ Missouri2. Alabama @ Houston3. Rutgers @ Purdue4. Houston @ Virginia5. Weber State @ Utah State • Mizzou at Arkansas is my most exciting Wednesday night game. Missouri is one of this season’s feel-good stories. The Tigers are third nationally in points per game. match (88.8). • Georgetown is not a feel-good story. In fact, it’s become so embarrassing that the Hoyas have perfectly reasonable signs removed from games. If Georgetown loses Wednesday night against Villanova, it will mark the program’s 30th straight defeat against a high-major. The best I can tell is a modern record for any power conference school.
The NCAA did not want to reduce the number of major teams in the tournament, thus expanding the field to 65 teams; to preserve a 64-team bracket for the first round, an opening round game would be played between the two lowest-seeded automatic qualifying teams, with the winner of this play-in game…
Has a 1 seed ever lost?
On March 16, 2018, the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) Retrievers became the first 16 seed to upset a 1 seed when they defeated the Virginia Cavaliers 74–54 in the first round.
How often does a 1 seed lose in the second round? 1 seeds have lost their second-round games five times in 36 (14 perfect) since 2000. Four of the five teams to defeat No. 1 seeds in the second round were No.
Has a 16 seed ever upset a 1 seed?
UMBC is the only No. 16 seed to ever beat a No. 1 seed since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Heading into the 2022 tournament, No.
How many 1 seeds have lost?
First round: A 1 seed has now only lost once in the first round.
Do schools win money for March Madness?
Between television revenue and ticket sales, the tournament generates more than $700 million annually. The NCAA keeps about 40 percent and distributes the remaining 60 percent to schools; the basketball fund is the largest part of this distribution.
How much is a March Madness win worth? The exact value of a win in 2022 won’t be determined until 2028, but looking at the NCAA’s revenue guide, Sportico calculates each win this year to be worth about $2.02 million.
How much money do schools get for March Madness?
The quick and dirty about it is this: Each game a team plays in the NCAA Tournament is worth one unit. Each 2022 unit is worth $338,887 paid to the conference for the participating school. Each unit has a shelf life of six years, meaning one unit this season is worth $2,033,322 overall.
Does NCAA give schools money?
Each year, the NCAA distributes about 60% of its total revenue—most of which comes from the Division I men’s basketball tournament—to D-I schools and conferences. This year, the NCAA will pay out more than ever to D-I schools.
Do colleges make money from March Madness?
The governing body controls neither the College Football Playoff nor any FBS bowl games, meaning the annual men’s basketball tournament is the end-all-be-all financially for the NCAA. The association earned a record $1.16 billion in 2021, and more than 85% of that came from March Madness.
Do schools make money off March Madness?
March Madness is the NCAA’s biggest moneymaker, but it’s also lucrative for conferences. That’s because the NCAA bases certain aspects of its annual distribution calculations on basketball performance in its men’s postseason tournament.
How much money do schools get for March Madness? The quick and dirty about it is this: Each game a team plays in the NCAA Tournament is worth one unit. Each 2022 unit is worth $338,887 paid to the conference for the participating school. Each unit has a shelf life of six years, meaning one unit this season is worth $2,033,322 overall.
How much money do schools get from the NCAA?
About 60% of the NCAA’s annual revenue – about $600 million – is distributed annually directly to Division I member schools and conferences, while more than $150 million funds Division I championships.
How does March Madness make money?
The NCAA’s main source of revenue from March Madness, which decides college basketball’s national champion, is the sale of the television and marketing rights for the tournament. In 2010, the NCAA signed a 14-year, $10.8 billion television rights deal with CBS Sports and the Turner Broadcasting System.
Does NCAA give schools money?
Each year, the NCAA distributes about 60% of its total revenue—most of which comes from the Division I men’s basketball tournament—to D-I schools and conferences. This year, the NCAA will pay out more than ever to D-I schools.
