The scores and results from Week 4 in make it clear, if fans and the Top 25 AP voters didn’t realize: The 2022 college football season is going to be a very smooth one. Good luck to everyone — those of us who voted on CBS Sports 131 included — who had to figure out how to rank these teams against each other in their college football rankings because comparing the losses and trying to get into this program is going to be pretty tough for a few days. week.
Given the lack of consistency across the losing team’s profile, variations in voter behavior will be ubiquitous. Some sites track how far voters are from consensus, and Sunday’s ranking will likely display the largest average variance per voter. Meaning, voters will be everywhere with their rankings for these few losing teams.
For example, what will voters do with Texas A&M after the Aggies gave Arkansas its first loss of the season? The Aggies have also lost one game this season, but that came at Appalachian State, a team now at 2-2 after losing to James Madison. What about Oklahoma and Kansas State? The Sooners have just suffered their first loss of the season against a team also beaten by Tulane at home. Will Kansas State be able to overcome that loss due to Saturday night’s win in Norman, Oklahoma, and how many voters will punish an OU team that suddenly lacks quality wins in its profile?
Those are just some of the questions that voters will (or should) consider when they fill out their ballots on Sunday morning. Since there is no clear answer for most of them, that’s why we think there will be a lot of difference. But our job is to try to predict consensus using years of voting habits to help inform our projections.
Here’s how we think the new AP Top 25 will look on Sunday when the new college football rankings are released.
1. Georgia (Last Sunday — 1): There was never a moment where anyone thought that disappointment was brewing, but Saturday’s 39-22 win against Kent State was close enough to think maybe some of the first-place votes drifted elsewhere. Not enough to lead to any changes in the No. 1 Georgia, but last week the Bulldogs got 59 of the 63 first-place votes, and perhaps Alabama or Ohio State took some of those votes after Week 4.
2. Ohio State (3): The Buckeyes trailed Alabama by just 19 vote points (1492-1473) in last week’s ballot. The results since have only strengthened Ohio State’s profile as it picked up a quality conference win against Wisconsin and the previous best win (Notre Dame) went and beat North Carolina on the road. Alabama’s close call against Texas, meanwhile, looks more troubled after the Longhorns’ loss to Texas Tech.
3. Alabama (2): There may be some friction in the No. 2, but Alabama did it with a 55-3 win against Vanderbilt that saw Bryce Young throw four touchdown passes to three different catchers before the reserves took home the win.
4. Michigan (4): Blake Corum rolled a rushing 243-yard defeat on 30 carries with two goals to provide some stability and explosion in a seven-point home win against a mercurial Maryland squad that Michigan have had a hard time getting rid of.
5. Clemson (5): A grueling 51-45 double-overtime at the hands of Wake Forest provides more drama this time than in the ratings. The Demon Deacons are a good team and in the end it was the best performance from D.J. Uiagalelei and his fouls, but it was also a game where Clemson fell behind or drew for most of the second half so that win wouldn’t trigger a jump in the rankings either.
6. USC (7): The Trojans avoided defeat with a 17-14 win at Oregon State. USC didn’t score until the fourth quarter but ended up finding the end zone twice, including with 1:13 remaining to eliminate the Beavers.
7. Kentucky (8): There could be a case of “lookahead fever” for Kentucky with Ole Miss coming next week as the Wildcats cruised there to win 31-23 against Northern Illinois as 26.5-point favorites.
8. Tennessee (11): The door is open for a clear jump into the top 10, but the debate is where the Volunteers land among the best teams in the nation after snapping the program’s five-game losing streak to Florida at the SEC on the CBS stage. Hendon Hooker has certainly added his name to the conversation as one of the most influential quarterbacks in the nation, and that alone will help position Vols in the minds of voters.
9. Oklahoma State (9): The Cowboys have Week 4 off and will return to action next week at Baylor.
10. NC State (12): There is no doubt for the final result as NC State closed its non-conference schedule with a lopsided win against UConn, progressing to 4-0 and setting up a massive Week 5 showdown with Clemson in Death Valley.
11. Utah (13): Expectations weren’t high for the Arizona State team in their first action since Herm Edwards’ sacking, but Utah made sure there was no chance of a comeback in a 34-13 Utes win.
12. Penn State (14): There’s definitely a hangover potential after last week’s big win at Auburn, but what followed was a pretty striking 33-14 win against Central Michigan. The Nittany Lions got up at 14 early and just held onto Chippewas the rest of the way.
13. Oregon (15): Unlike Penn State, there was nothing flashy about Oregon’s Week 4 win. The Ducks trailed by 12 points with 6:42 remaining and did not lead to three touchdowns in less than 3 minutes turning the game around in a 44-41 win against Washington State. The Cougars even kicked in the back door (for those who care about such things) with a 49-second touchdown drive in the last minute, but Bo Nix’s two touchdowns and a pick six have built up the padding to hold on to win and advance 3-1.
14. Ole Miss (16): The Rebels closed in the second half but held on to win 35-27 against Tulsa. Now all attention turns to next week’s unbeaten fight between Ole Miss and Kentucky.
15. Washington (18): AP voters mostly follow scoreboard results and pre-match expectations. Since the Huskies exceeded expectations in such a one-sided result against Stanford, I thought there would be a rise in the rankings. Washington’s best win, Michigan State, dropped some points with the Spartans’ loss to Minnesota, but the team has played at a high level against all four opponents in an unbeaten start.
16. Oklahoma (6): For the third time in four years, the Sooners fell to Kansas State. It was another all-round display from the visiting Wildcats, who outscored OU 14-7 in the first quarter and leveled them point-by-point throughout the game. That puts Oklahoma State in the driver’s seat of the Top 12 for now and drops Oklahoma outside the top 10.
17. Texas A&M (23): Since the Aggies did lose to Appalachian State, there will be a limit to how high they can rank up at this point in the season. But beating a quality opponent like Arkansas, and showing some improvement in doing so, will help Texas A&M’s cause. Aggies should be the one to rise the most in the top 25 after Week 4.
18. Arkansas (10): It was a heartbreaking defeat for Arkansas, when the field goal attempt was within the expected range but ended in a bounce over the post. Now the Razorbacks’ best win is Cincinnati, a team that will be in the top 25 votes but may not crack the AP poll, so its landing in the rankings will be determined by Saturday’s loss to Texas A&M.
19. Baylor (17): No major ranking changes after a 31-24 win at Iowa State.
20. BYU (19): The Cougars were challenged by a determined Wyoming team but held on to double-digit wins.
21. Florida (20): Billy Napier and the Gators took their “A” game to Knoxville, Tennessee, and lost only in a 38-33 loss to the Vols. If any team in the country would be in the top 25 on Sunday with two defeats, it would be Florida.
22. Wake Forest (21): It would be a surprise if Demon Deacon dropped far from the top 25 after a heartbreaking double overtime loss to Clemson. Wake Forest are 3-1 and clearly at the same competitive level as the Tigers, so should be the top 25 teams on Sunday.
23. Florida State (NR): After a 30-point win against Boston College, Seminole is now 4-0 up with three wins against the Power Five and two of them away. The State of Florida is soaring and now not only is it emerging towards its first bowl appearance under Mike Norvell, but Seminole could be a dark horse in the Atlantic ACC.
24. Minnesota (NR): At some point, it’s not who you play but how you play, and Minnesota has crushed its opponents en route to a 4-0 start to a season in which the Golden Gophers outlasted the team 183-24.
25. Kansas (NR): The Jayhawks started their first 4-0 since 2009, and we think this unprecedented momentum of success under Lance Leipold will help spark voter attention and land Kansas in the top 25 for the first time since October 18, 2009 .
Projected out: Texas (22), Pittsburgh (24), Miami (25)
