Conference restructuring has become an increasingly frustrating attempt to squeeze dollars out of a system that has concentrated resources at the top. The best brands and most of the money are among the 32 teams that make up the Big Ten and SEC and the networks that hold their primary television rights (ESPN and Fox).
Everything else has become a mess to the point that one Big 12 source said that in a worst-case scenario, nothing would happen in the league. That would mean staying at 12 teams with BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF after Texas and Oklahoma leave before the 2025 season.
Some Big 12 athletic directors are concerned that the conference’s media rights dollars don’t stretch far enough to add programs without cutting into their payouts. Outgoing commissioner Bob Bowlsby admitted last summer that Texas and Oklahoma brought the league 50% of the value of the rights.
The same reality is emerging for the Pac-12. Even with Oregon and Washington — the top two brands remaining among the 22 schools still in the Pac-12 and Big 12 — the conference doesn’t have much to gain.
Do the math. There seems to be a consensus among key parties that the Big 12 and Pac-12 would be worth more together in some form than separately.
“Let’s say the bloodletting stops at SC and UCLA. You can’t raise legal fees here because you’re going to lose the [LA] market,” said Bobby Hacker, a West Coast attorney and sports media consultant who spent 18 years. years as vice president of business and legal affairs for Fox Sports.
Hacker continued, “Now you have the Pac-12, which had a less valued rights deal than any of the Power Five groups. They’ve now lost the LA market. There are no teams here to replace it. And if you say, ‘We’re going to get San Diego of the state,” is a rejection in the conference because San Diego State or Fresno State don’t have the academic cache of schools.
“If Oregon and Washington go, Katy slams the door shut. There’s a possibility of a Big 12 merger in my mind’s eye.”
There seems to be a standstill mentality by now.
The Pac-12 is in exclusive negotiations with Fox and ESPN. The Big 12 continues to explore expansion. New Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark made that official with his “open for business” comment during conference media days last week.
The Big 12 wants to be hipper, younger, cooler. There’s not much that’s classy, young and cool about the Iowa State-Cincinnati game.
Conference realignment news & notes
SEC presidents don’t want to move beyond 16 teams right now. See the article : The Seahawks still have a high level of interest in Browns’ Baker Mayfield, who is also open to extending it. This suggests that any decision Notre Dame makes about the Big Ten is isolated and does not necessarily affect the SEC.
This brings the focus back to Oregon and Washington, the two biggest “available” pieces. The reason they aren’t at the top of the Big 12 list yet is because they believe they have options focused on the Big Ten. One problem? Multiple sources tell CBS Sports that neither the Ducks nor the Huskies bring enough value to the Big Ten (between $80 million and $100 million per year).
Even if the Big Ten isn’t open for business, why would Oregon or Washington sign a Pac-12 franchise knowing the conference is vulnerable? That’s how the Pac-12 got into this predicament: Former commissioner Larry Scott signed a 12-year deal in 2012 that seemed lucrative at the time but locked the conference into a below-market price.
Some have suggested that wherever the schools end up, they would be allowed to “opt out” in the rights agreement should the Big Ten eventually bid. But why would any conference knowingly devalue its main source of revenue?
With the Pac-12, ESPN and/or Fox don’t necessarily want to overspend on real estate they’ve already decided is far less valuable than the Big Ten and SEC. Nor is it certain that ESPN will get the Big Ten’s secondary rights. If they don’t have the Big Tent, it could open their pockets for College Football Playoff expansion, the next major college rights deal (after the Pac-12 and Big 12).
“I’ve shifted my mindset. I don’t think we talk about college sports through the lens of the NCAA, the Power Five anymore,” Hacker said. “College sports are now completely controlled by ESPN and Fox.”
“It’s definitely not iron.” That’s how Kansas City sports attorney Mit Winter spoke about granting rights to the ACC amid ongoing angst that the conference’s schools will soon fall behind the Big Ten and SEC by $50 million a year. He continued: “It would be expensive to litigate this and try to get out of it with an uncertain outcome. I don’t think anybody really wants to get involved in this fight. If they were to get out, they would just agree to some kind of financial settlement, which would be a huge number.”
This number is estimated to be between $100 million and $500 million. Clemson, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina and Virginia are the programs most often mentioned as contenders from other conferences.
“Certainly there is no definite loophole in entitlements,” Winter added.
The ACC borrowed heavily from the Big 12 in shaping its franchise, sources tell CBS Sports. The deal will keep Texas and Oklahoma in the league through the 2024 season. Winter said he was involved in drafting that Big 12 document. Here’s a PDF of the original Big 12 franchise signed in 2012. A notice in the membership agreement where members agree to stay together for 99 years.
However, this is different from actual vesting, which requires each school leaving the conference to pay a share of the last two years of revenue. In that case, Texas and Oklahoma would owe the SEC about $90 million for leaving early. Now you can see why, by now, both schools are committed to the Big 12 for the duration of their contracts.
If you want to be a conspiracy theorist, consider the possibility that this round of reallocation could result in one less major conference, potentially meaning one less guaranteed spot in an expanded playoff spot. The original 12-team playoff expansion proposal rejected in January included spots for the top-six conference champions. The merger of two powers or the collapse of one creates greater opportunities for at-large berths for the Big Ten and the SEC.
It was an underplayed angle as the Big 12 rebuilt itself last year, whether it’s staying in the Power Five after reuniting with five schools. It can be answered in real time. If the Big 12 were to absorb the Pac-12 in some form, it would help reinforce that it is a Power Four league.
With only four major conferences, would there be a temptation to distribute uneven playoff shares to leagues below the Big Ten and the SEC? Currently, the Power Five conferences are under contract to receive the same amount of money — about $57 million each — over the 12 years of the CFP contract, which ends after the 2025 season. The five-team Group of 65 shared $83 million.
Another example of that widening gap: With the addition of USC and UCLA, the projected annual value of the Big Ten deal now rises to about $1.2 billion annually. That means the current Pac-12 rights would have to increase nearly 2.5 times ($600 million per year) to reach half of what the Big Ten earns. His most recent rights deals saw a 19% increase in his total MLB contract. The NFL increased its rights by 63%. The Pac-12 would need to increase its eligibility by 240% to reach half of the Big Ten.
“They’re not going to get there,” one executive said of the Pac-12.
Such a delta between leagues affects the ability to hire top coaches, academic advisors, mental health experts (Ohio State, for example, has a sports psychologist for its 36 sports), nutritionists and strength coaches. To begin with.
