As we wrap up the long July 4th weekend, one question has moved to the forefront of the swirling speculation about the future of college athletics: was this Notre Dame’s last Independence Day as an independent?
Since last week’s shocking announcement that USC and UCLA are headed to the Big Ten in 2024, all is quiet under the Gold Dome. The longer it stays that way, the more one can assume that the Fighting Irish are weighing their biggest decision for decades. Maybe never.
After the ground moved again last Thursday, the next consideration has been the other attractive acquisition candidates out there as the industry consolidates power into two conferences, the Big Ten and SEC. Notre Dame stands alone at the top of that list – as desirable as ever, and perhaps as vulnerable as well.
“The next decision,” one industry insider told Sports Illustrated, “really belongs to Notre Dame.” The same person speculated that the decision could come “in a week, or six months, or a year from now. We don’t know.”
It stands to reason that the Big Ten would always take the object of its undying affection, now or sometime in the nebulous future. It doesn’t matter if Notre Dame was the 17th, 19th or 21st team in the league, the Big Ten would make him work to capture the big prize he has chased in memory of. So the Irish, as always, can afford to be selective and patient.
Notre Dame football recently played under the ACC during the COVID-shortened 2020 football season.
South Bend Tribune / USA TODAY Network
A source familiar with the school’s thinking told Sports Illustrated that “independence is still the choice and a leader in the club.” It will take a lot to shake Notre Dame off its cherished identity, but the instability of the entire landscape remains a concern, and could further affect Irish prospects.
Two areas to monitor: the fate of the College Football Playoff and the Atlantic Coast Conference. If one or both fell, Notre Dame could be forced into the Big Ten. As per its current contract, the playoff ceases to exist in January 2026. There is no guarantee that another iteration of it will replace it, of any size. “The vast majority of the writing assumes there will be a playoff, and that it’s going to grow,” said the industry source. “I’m not sure about that assumption.”
It’s possible that the Big 12 and Pac-12, which have been reduced, could be frozen. It is possible that the PGC could also be pushed aside. The Big Ten and SEC may hold their own playoffs, then the champions of the two leagues meet for a presumed national title—or not, and each conference can assert its unsettled superiority on the field. . (If you want a lousy throwback to the lousy bowl system, here it is.)
Notre Dame wants a path to a national football championship. If everything but the Big Ten and SEC is reduced to non-rival status, that could force them off Independence Island. Or, if the PGC were to split in the middle of its long stay in a disadvantageous contract with ESPN, the school would have to think about its sports that compete in that league and it might be necessary to relocate them.
The school of thought about why it might finally be time for Notre Dame to join the Big Ten consists of two classrooms: national scheduling and revenue.
One of the reasons the Irish have loved their independence is the ability to schedule their football matches from coast to coast, appealing to a national fan base and recruiting philosophy (athletic and academic); with veteran rival USC in the Big Ten Fold along with UCLA, Notre Dame’s ability to play on the West Coast would remain viable every year. So is the East Coast, with Rutgers and Maryland. Also, the core of the “neighborhood” opponents the Irish have played regularly over the years are Purdue (87 meetings), Michigan State (79), Michigan (44) and Northwestern (49).
However, it is very likely that the USC-Notre Dame series would continue without them being conference brothers. It is likely that the number of schools that would turn down an opportunity to schedule Notre Dame will remain small anyway.
In terms of revenue, which has become the main point of discussion for everyone and everything in terms of realignment, there would certainly be advantages to Big Ten membership. The league’s new media rights agreements will be a geyser of money that will rain down on the member schools. Many people have theorized that Notre Dame would fall dangerously far behind in that regard if it does not join the conference. That may not be true.
But don’t think for a minute that the Irish will let money alone drive the decision on whether to abandon what has been a guiding principle since the school achieved national prominence in football over a century ago. The Notre Dame administration may well consider the financial gap between maintaining independent status and Big Ten membership. This has never been an athletic department that operates with a budget the size of Texas or Ohio State’s, and apparently doesn’t feel the need or desire to spend in the neighborhood of $200 million a year on sports.
That’s at the heart of the identity Notre Dame doesn’t want to give up: It’s a one-of-a-kind football-academic-marketing powerhouse. It is the only school in the country to be in the top 20 of the US News & World Report national university rankings and NCAA football attendance. Notre Dame is 17th in the latest academic rankings and has ranged from 15th to 17th in home attendance from 2017 to 21 (except for 2020, when attendance was a useless metric in college sports in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic) .
In numbers that resonate with television executives, Notre Dame ranks eighth in the number of non-bowl/playoff games watched in recent seasons by at least three million people, per Sports Media Watch. The Irish had a total of 16 games with three million or more viewers in 2018, ’19 and ’21 (discarding the 2020 numbers due to the difference in the number of games played across the country). That’s behind only Alabama (26), Ohio State (25), Georgia (22), Michigan (22), Oklahoma (22), Penn State (19) and LSU (18). It is worth noting that every school ahead of Notre Dame on the list is a current or future member of the Big Ten or SEC. And the next four are after the Irish as well (Auburn, Wisconsin, Florida and Texas A&M).
There are other smaller, private, academically prestigious schools that have had success in football, most notably Stanford and Northwestern in recent years. But they can’t match the size of Notre Dame’s fans – they don’t seat 75,000-plus stumps or park three million of them in front of a screen.
Notre Dame has, forever, been able to get everything it wanted: academic prestige, football success, enough money to fund more than 20 competitive varsity sports — and the beloved autonomy of the FBS. He won’t give any of that up willingly, even in a college sports world rocked by turmoil. The guess here is that the school maintains its independence for as long as it can, through July 4, 2023, and beyond.
That will only change if the current structure continues to destabilize in a profound way. Could, hey, happen. While many college sports are waiting for signs from Notre Dame, the school can afford to wait for signs from everyone else.
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