The scientists behind a new database of more than 400 extreme weather studies have done a vital service. This work, bringing together all research of this kind, should encourage a greater sense of urgency around policymaking and campaigning. Intense heatwaves, hurricanes, droughts and floods show that greenhouse gas emissions have become much more likely, which capture the sun’s heat and put more energy into weather systems. And it’s an alarming surprise and determines the extent of the effects of global warming.
Until the early 2000s, when the first attribution studies were published, it was more difficult to link atmospheric CO2 to tangible global warming effects. Thanks to a growing body of research, we now know. Last summer’s record-breaking “heat dome” in northwestern Canada and the US would have been nearly impossible without human-caused climate change. The same thing happens with the heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere in 2018, and in Asia in 2016.
Forest fires in Siberia increased by 80% in 2020 due to global warming, and 90% of marine heat waves are human-caused. It is evident that the death rate has increased on all continents, and scientists estimate 100,000 deaths every year. Warming was a factor in the 2012-14 California drought and Super Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines. Although extreme weather has been studied in China, much less research has been done in Africa and South America. However, those parts of the world most affected by climate change find the least resources to help them understand and deal with it.
“Beauty is truth, truth is beauty,” wrote the poet John Keats just over 200 years ago. When it comes to climate, the truth can feel closer to panic these days. But scientists and leaders, including UN Secretary-General António Guterres, former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres and Cop26 president Alok Sharma, insist that reality must be faced. Indeed, this is the only way to avoid the most catastrophic and tragic outcomes. In a new book, Hothouse Earth, Professor Bill McGuire argues that we have reached a stage that should be considered “climate appeasement” to minimize the risks.
Like historical responsibility for carbon emissions, attitudes and experiences of the current crisis are unequally and unfairly distributed. All over the world, and especially in the south, billions of people are trapped every day in a struggle for survival. That doesn’t mean they don’t know about global warming; subsistence farmers and fishermen suffer more directly from environmental damage than anyone else. But Western governments, businesses and people relatively sheltered from the worst effects of global warming should recognize this as a privilege.
With this year’s Cop27 in Egypt fast approaching, Western governments must meet their climate finance commitments to enable a green transition in the developing world. The purpose of attributional science is not simply to alert the world to what is happening, but to help prepare for what has not yet happened. The most alarming global trend, aside from the still-rising emissions that mean we’re on track for 2.5 C of warming, is the unexpected speed at which it’s already wreaking havoc. Given what we now know about the impact of 1C of warming, it is no exaggeration to say that this trajectory is not only suicidal but murderous.
But there are alternatives, and insisting on this point has never been more important. Ms Figueres, who delivered the Paris agreement, called for a “sprint towards the light” this week. The alarming findings of attribution scientists may cause despair, but they cannot be allowed to dampen determination and hope.
