We are now less than four months away from the 2022 midterm elections, and the major issues appear to be coming into focus. Outraged by the annulment of Roe v. Wade, leftist forces are touting reproductive rights, including abortion. Driven by rising gas prices and rising inflation, forces on the right are working to make the economy the central issue. With control of both the House and Senate on the line, all of this has implications for the 2022 midterm elections, as well as the 2024 presidential race. We’re going to “have lunch” on that this week.
“The Abortion Battle”: Two weeks after the Supreme Court issued its decision to return abortion jurisdiction to each state, President Biden has taken an executive action that will try to preserve some rights that states do not have. For example, the Justice Department says that states cannot criticize so-called “abortion pills” because they have been approved for use by the Federal Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and are often delivered by the US Mail Biden also promised more availability and funding for contraception, which could reduce demand for abortions. Short of major action by Congress (which is doubtful), Roe is gone; and the question rests with the states. The president can only have a minimal impact.
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“What do the states say?” – At last count, at least 13 states have essentially said laws on the books banning abortions are in effect. Here in West Virginia, the state has a law from the 1870s that makes abortion a crime, but the governor plans to call the legislature into special session to make any necessary updates and clarifications. The sides are strongly divided. “I think it’s important to make sure that we’re going to have a durable law that saves as many babies’ lives as humanely and legally possible. And I will be in court trying to ensure that fact,” West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) said. On the other hand, “I personally believe that reproductive rights should be between a person and their doctor. I don’t think the government should really get involved at all… I think abortion is health care and that’s how we should treat it,” said Delegate Kayla Young (D) of West Virginia.
“Common ground?” – In a bright red state like West Virginia, there is little to no common ground. Republicans hold all six constitutional offices statewide and have large majorities in both the House of Delegates and the state Senate. Senator Joe Manchin is the only Democrat in the five-member congressional delegation. So when Democrats like Delegate Young ask for exceptions for rape and incest, they are unlikely to get it. Some moderate Republicans may support them, but the numbers are so lopsided there’s no chance. In solid blue states like California and New York, the opposite is true. We will see a mosaic of 50 states.
“The Politics of Everything”: As I have written, abortion went from 0 to 60 mph at lightning speed as a political issue this year. It wasn’t even on the radar as a top-tier issue until Roe’s opinion leaked a few months ago. The main place where it will be a big problem is in US Senate races because only senators have a duty to confirm Supreme Court justices, or any federal judge for that matter. With the Senate currently split 50-50, there are seven Senate races in battleground states this year where abortion will become a litmus test. That said, abortion-rights supporters would need at least two conservative justices to retire, and that seems unlikely even if there is a second Biden term. With three appointees, the 6-3 conservative court is President Trump’s lasting legacy.
“Launch the problem coin”: As mentioned, the most conservative forces point to the economy as the main theme this year. Inflation is at a forty-year high of 8.6 percent. The Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates by .75 and is likely to double that increase in the next month. Gas prices are at a national average of $5.00 per gallon. The party in power is always to blame, and right now the only good economic news for the Biden administration is that unemployment remains at 3.6 percent, among the lowest in 50 years. Last month alone, more than 270,000 new jobs were created across the country. While that sounds good, paychecks are stretched to the limit by the prices mentioned above.
“From Biden’s point of view”: “My economic plan is working,” President Biden said at the White House on Friday. That was in response to the upbeat employment report that came out earlier in the day. Yes, there are more people working, but they have less disposable income. I heard one of your supporters on the radio today, touting that gasoline went down ten cents last week, in many parts of the country. 10 cents, after the price per gallon had already doubled in the last year. Somehow, I don’t think many voters find that comforting. And if the country falls into recession before November, the election could be a bloodbath for Democrats. Look, the Republican Party has suffered a recession before, too, so no party is immune.
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