On June 28, Governor Kathy Hochul greets people during a campaign stop on the corner of Second Avenue and 86th Street.
Photo: Lev Radin / Pacific Press / LightRocket via Getty Images
Even with shocking news sweeping the nation – most notably, recent Supreme Court rulings overturning decades-long laws governing abortion, environmental protection, and the carrying of concealed firearms – last week New Yorkers held decidedly ordinary primary for most state offices. Politics is how democracies process change, and ground rules apply to all kinds of change, be it trivial or catastrophic.
Rule one: incumbency and support from the political establishment are often decisive. Governor Kathy Hochul, whose ten months in office were preceded by years of driving across the state as a lieutenant governor, has been making friends, cutting ribbons and raising promissory notes for years. Since she took office last August, she had the power of an incumbent to distribute tax breaks, regulatory decisions, and cash grants and could ask for favors from Montauk to her hometown of Buffalo.
“He dominated what I like to call the iron triangle of the New York Democratic primary,” Democratic advisor Bruce Gyory told me. “It’s the minority vote at the base. They are highly educated and professional women on the one hand and white ethnicities on the other. And she was able to win all three. “
On the Republican side, Representative Lee Zeldin was supported by nearly every county-level party organization in the state, garnering 85 percent of the votes of delegates at the GOP state convention in March. As the only elected official in the race, he gained the visibility that comes with the power to direct federal funding to several projects on Long Island, where he amassed huge majorities that led him to victory.
While progressive candidates haven’t fared as well as they hoped, it’s worth noting that parts of New York City have a left-wing establishment and, like their more traditional counterparts, these mini-machines have diligently revealed their supporters and performed. well in the primary of the Assembly. In Manhattan, where Dick Gottfried is retiring after 52 years as the longest serving Assembly member in the state’s history, his successor, Tony Simone, has been supported by nearly every West Side incumbent, including Representative Jerry Nadler, the state senator Brad Hoylman; and city councilor Erik Bottcher.
In Queens, the Democratic Socialists of America claimed a decisive victory for the seat in the Assembly vacated by the retirement of Cathy Nolan. Juan Ardila won more than 43 percent of the vote in a crowded field, thanks in part to the support of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, state senator Jessica Ramos and council members Tiffany Cabán, Shekar Krishnan and Jennifer Gutiérrez. And the DSA-backed incumbent in Brooklyn, Phara Souffrant Forrest, won re-election with more than 67% of the vote, as did the self-identified socialist Emily Gallagher with about 80%.
In short, this was a normal primary in many respects, coming even days after the repeal of the New York covert transportation law and the culling of Roe v. Wade. People didn’t go to the polls, but they didn’t stay away either. Despite many poignant reports of low voter turnout – the Daily News called it “sluggish” – Gyory says it’s “a bit of an optical illusion” that some reporters have misinterpreted by ignoring the explosion of new recordings of the voters in the last 30 years, also thanks to the registration procedures and the motor electorate laws that facilitate registration during the renewal of the driving license.
“Historically, it’s not a low turnout. In reality, it will probably reach 900,000. It will end up being the third highest turnout since we started having these primaries, “Gyory told me.” The highest turnout ever was just under 1.6 [million] four years ago. The previous high was 1.2 million, Governor Koch-Cuomo’s famous 1982 primary. ”
The State Election Commission website records more than 864,000 votes cast in the Democratic primary, with another 446,000 among Republicans for a total of over 1.3 million.
As we prepare for the August Congressional primary and November general elections, it remains to be seen whether the big national issues – including the responses to Supreme Court rulings and the ongoing explosive revelations from the January 6 insurgency investigation – will be dominate local races.
“I believe that in September, October, the first two issues of this campaign will be the same as the first two of this campaign today, and that’s crime, public safety and the economy,” Zeldin told me. “They are as personal as possible for a wide range of New Yorkers who are seriously considering escaping.”
As an anti-abortion candidate who celebrated the repeal of Roe v. Wade and hasn’t publicly stated whether he thinks Donald Trump actually won the 2020 presidential election, Zeldin is out of step with most New Yorkers, who according to polls support abortion rights and gun control. His path to victory hinges on New Yorkers focusing on local issues such as inflation and rising crime rates.
