Any notion that markets have already fallen on the cliff and that Wall Street is planning to rebound soon is dispelled by the introduction of a secret U.S. investment fund Coatue seen by Calcalist. According to Coatue commentators, we are actually in the middle of a bad movement.
Coatue experts have made clear the domino effect is unending, as the fall has shifted away from major technology giants and companies ’perceptions of their business practices are still not in line with the new economic climate. Within a week or so, the public financial reporting period will begin, which could include a massive fall forecast, following initial requests in the last quarter with companies like Netflix.
Coatue compared the current situation to the bear market situation after the dot-com outbreak erupted in 2000 and pointed out that in the first phase of the long-running crisis between March and July 2000, there was a sharp decline in technology. “invalid”. shares, as the fund calls the major technology companies registering losses. The second phase was from July 2000 and almost a year, when the wind blew out of the stocks of major high-tech companies. Then, in the third phase, all state-owned companies, from the financial sector to the pharmaceutical sector, collapsed. This period was the longest in the whole and only lasted until the end of 2002. Therefore, if the situation appears to be in a similar situation to 2000, then the current bear market may last almost two years.
According to coumatue, we are now behind the first stages of the collapse of the technology shareholders and in the middle of the air are losing major technology companies. We have two negative steps ahead of us – a decrease in perception and a commitment of non-technical components to a negative environment.
The Fund believes that the forecasts of companies are still optimistic and reflect a non-existent reality, based on the projected profit margins of all companies in relation to the U.S. stock market. This index is still at the top of the decade, i.e. too much.
How do you differentiate between high-tech companies and low-quality companies? In the Coatue, they cited an example that would not please the ears of Israel and chose the Israeli insurtech Lemonade as an example of a company of “low quality and loss”. “Do not compare companies like Robinhood and Lemonade with companies like PayPal and Block. Although they have all fallen more than 70% since the beginning of the year, the first two are companies with a false business system that can not support an assessment, as he said.the last two companies are big and profitable, “said Coatue Introduction.
The fund shows that Lemonade is selling loss insurance policies and is unable to hold its customers accountable. Robinhood, a well-known security trading platform, is deep in losses, and even worse, its revenues have plummeted as consumers earn more. On the contrary, the number of PayPal users is only increasing and its profits are also huge.
Why should we listen to professional accounts? Well, Coatue is a hedge fund founded in 1999 and today manages over $ 70 billion in investments, especially in the technology and communications sectors. The fund manages low-cost social media data, but over the years has made significant investments, from Spotify and DoorDash to Snapchat.
In Israel, Coatue has invested in all major unicorns in recent years – hardly ever getting a big round without their participation. His list of assets includes cyber companies Snyk and Cato Networks, crypto companies Fireblocks and StarkWare, local fintech companies Rapyd and Melio, and software companies Gong and Deel.
With the exception of Cato, all of the mentioned subsidies were made at a company value of over $ 5 billion. in companies and the private sector. While operating in both sectors of the market, it reduced its stake in the private sector in the second quarter of this year, and these led to entry into only 16 rounds compared to 56 rounds in the third quarter. end of 2021..
The Crossover account must maintain a balance between the value of its public portfolio and its private portfolio, so with the fall of stocks, it is forced to reduce its activity in collecting private funds as well. Coatue, who works in a similar profile to Tiger Global, has suffered a lot in terms of returns, but not as surprisingly as Tiger. Since the beginning of the year, the fund has experienced a 17% decline (as of the end of May, according to the introduction) while Tiger Global has seen half of the fund’s value depleted.
Since the fund works in both public and private markets, it is interesting to see its amazing predictions about the number of capital investments. If last year these investments reached a historic level of about 700 billion dollars and in each year 2018-2020 they reached between 350 billion dollars and 400 billion dollars, then this year and next year Coatue expects a significant decrease. . In this context, again, Coatue expects that the behavior of the market will be similar to that of the crisis of 2000-2001, i.e. the fall of 80 percent of the activity of capital funds.
This prediction contradicts the majority of analysts and authorities who have publicly stated that the fall of this period will not be deep. Therefore, Coatue expects that business investment will fall below the limit of 300 billion dollars for 2018 this year and next year will also decrease to less than 200 billion dollars.
If we are in the middle of a disaster what should we do? Coatue experts analyze three trends that have recently made headlines and they are – the V-shaped rapid recovery that everyone dreams of after experiencing miracles in the middle of 2020 in the middle of the epidemic, and alternatively, the two are more fitness. soft landing or hard landing for the US economy, and therefore the global economy as well.
According to Coatue analysts, a rapid recovery is unlikely this time around because even in 2020 it will depend on unsustainable factors such as large cash flows from major central banks on the one hand and increased technical adoption due to locks on the other. . So the front is set to show one of two issues – a soft landing or a hard landing, with the Coatue estimate it will be the last, i.e. economic recession. This is because the Fed may exaggerate as it did in the past during the monetary period which will bring economic hardship, as well as due to the fact that the geopolitical risk, especially the Ukraine war, is still outstanding and overcoming inflation as it is. high as it is today is not possible without recession.
What does this mean for the stock market? In Coatue’s favorable conditions, the market has almost ended the decline and has only about 5% left to fall, but if we enter into a recession then there is a possibility of a 40% fall from the current level. However, in Coatue, as in all investment companies, they do not think that the sky has fallen and therefore their business products are already prepared. What will go in there? The most urgent proposals are the shares of Tesla and Nvidia in the field of technology. After all, they will focus on companies that are growing rapidly as they continue to make profits, but they will not ignore companies that are losing today. “Some of the technology companies that are making losses now are going to be very profitable tomorrow,” Coatue said, “just one needs to find them based on the group’s economy and identify the best pairs of Presidents. and CFO. “
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