In the fourth year of the pandemic, Covid-19 is once again spreading across America, fueled by the recent holidays, reduced precautions and the continued evolution of sub-variants of the Omicron virus.
The new subvariants raise concerns about their increased transmissibility and ability to evade some antibodies, but the same tools continue to limit the spread of Covid, particularly bivalent boosters, masks, ventilation, antiviral drugs and other precautions, experts say.
Still, uptake has been “pitiful,” said Neil Sehgal, an assistant professor of health policy and management at the University of Maryland School of Public Health. The use of antiviral drugs is low, and several orders for masking, vaccination and testing have continued in the face of a wave of winter, which is again putting pressure on health systems.
The number of new hospital admissions due to Covid is now the fourth highest rate of the pandemic, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Hospitalizations infected with Covid fell somewhat after the summer wave, but never fell to the low levels seen after previous increases, persisted through the fall and rose again with the winter holidays.
“Hospitals are at capacity,” Brendan Williams, president and CEO of the New Hampshire Health Care Association, said of the current rates in his region. “I’m not sure what the trajectory of this thing is going to be, but I’m worried.”
The majority of Covid hospitalizations are among those over 65, although the proportion of children under four will roughly double in 2022.
In the past week, deaths from Covid increased by 44%, from 2,705 in the week ending January 4 to 3,907 in the week ending January 11.
This is one of the largest increases in Covid cases in the entire pandemic, according to analyzes of the virus’s wastewater. It is much lower than the peak in January 2022, but similar to the increase in summer 2022, which was the second largest.
And it’s not over yet. “It certainly doesn’t feel like we’ve peaked yet,” Sehgal said.
Omicron subvariants BQ.1.1 and BQ.1, as well as the rapidly spreading XBB.1.5, account for the majority of cases, according to CDC estimates. The Northeast, where more than 80% of cases are estimated to originate from the XBB.1.5 subvariant, has the highest proportion of cases, according to wastewater data.
“With XBB, there’s such a significant carry advantage that the exposure is really risky — it’s riskier now than it’s ever been” in terms of carry, Sehgal said.
The official number of cases is growing more slowly, due to the prevalence of home tests and a general reluctance to test at all, experts say. Of the tests that were reported, however, the positivity rates were very high, with about one in six tests (16%) being positive.
Despite the high rates of spread of Covid, hospitalizations have not yet reached previous peaks seen earlier in the pandemic, likely due to immunity from vaccination and previous cases, said Stuart Ray, professor of medicine and infectious diseases at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.
But this protection should not be taken for granted, he said, especially as immunity weakens.
“The boosters really make a difference,” he said. “The severe cases we’re seeing are probably avoidable, at least to some extent, if people make sure they’re up to date with their vaccinations, because that’s still the safest way to gain immunity.”
Vaccines, especially updated bivalent vaccines, are very effective in reducing the risk of severe disease and death. Yet only 15.4% of Americans over the age of five have received new boosters.
“You’re just fighting a lot of misinformation and also some political missteps when it comes to vaccines,” Williams said. When Joe Biden declared the pandemic “over” in September, he said, that likely dampened public enthusiasm for the new booster and spurred further congressional inaction on additional funding to deal with the pandemic.
“It’s hard to create that parallel narrative that you shouldn’t worry about Covid, but also go for the vaccine,” Sehgal said, calling the statement “another unforced error.”
While vaccines are very important, other precautions also help prevent infection, disease and death, Sehgal said — especially important during waves like this one. Still, because of poor messaging by officials, many people may not even realize the U.S. is experiencing a wave, so precautions are still needed, he added.
“I think most people today who don’t wear masks just don’t know they should.”
Even if the U.S. reaches a point where the waves don’t cause a corresponding increase in hospitalizations and deaths, they will still increase the number of people sickened and disabled by prolonged Covid, experts say.
“There is accumulating evidence that repeated Covid accumulates risk for short-term and long-term complications, including cardiovascular, mental and other problems,” Ray said. “Only in retrospect will we know exactly how big the cost is. But the emerging data suggest that there is a cost that grows as we accumulate infections.”
Williams is concerned that hospitals are reaching maximum capacity even as long-term care facilities are seeing outbreaks among residents and staff after years of staff shortages.
“In New Hampshire, nursing homes won’t admit those they feel they don’t have the staff to care for, which I think is admirable, but the consequence is that the hospitals are overcrowded,” he said. Hospitals that may be admitting patients to transitional or long-term care facilities will see beds filled for longer, putting even more pressure on hospitals, patients and health care workers.
“It’s a continuum, but right now the continuum is broken,” Williams said.
Health care workers experienced three years of burnout, disability and death, and some had to leave the workforce. Others were disturbed by unsafe working conditions and the continuing crisis caused by the pandemic. Nurses in New York City reached a tentative deal this week after striking for safer working conditions.
Nursing homes and assisted living facilities have roughly 300,000 fewer workers today than they did in March 2020, Williams said. “It’s hard to see how it’s going to get better,” he said.
Meanwhile, Covid continues to circulate, with nursing home residents and staff seeing one of the biggest increases in cases of the pandemic.
“The first key to keeping people healthy in a nursing home is keeping people healthy in the community,” Williams said. But “it just doesn’t seem like people are wearing masks and getting incentives – people don’t take any of this seriously. It just seemed like we were declaring that when it comes to deaths from Covid we’re number one, and that’s a title we’re not going to relinquish to anyone else country.”
Sehgal calls it a “collective forgetfulness” of how and why we need to protect ourselves and each other. “There are people for whom a mild infection is actually not so mild, either because of their medical condition or because of social factors in their lives,” he said. “It’s just a huge self-inflicted wound.”
And the more the virus spreads, the more opportunities it has to evolve, potentially picking up mutations that make it easier to overcome immunity.
However, the same measures that helped curb previous spikes are still working today. And they don’t just prevent disease and death – they also reduce social disruption, such as lost hours at work and school. “These steps we can take to protect ourselves and other people — they don’t seem difficult in the face of a Covid infection,” Sehgal said.
As Ray said, “When we can wear a mask, why not?”
Will the coronavirus cause a pandemic?
The disease it causes is called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the epidemic of COVID-19 a pandemic.
Is the coronavirus the first pandemic? The novel human coronavirus disease COVID-19 has become the fifth documented pandemic since the influenza pandemic of 1918. On the same subject : Xinhua Commentary: The politically motivated report betrays scientific principles. COVID-19 was first reported in Wuhan, China, and has since spread around the world.
What is classed as a pandemic?
A pandemic is the spread of a new disease around the world. Viral respiratory diseases, such as those caused by the new influenza virus or the COVID-19 coronavirus, are most likely to develop into a pandemic. A pandemic is not the same as an epidemic.
Will COVID-19 become a pandemic?
COVID-19 is considered to be in the pandemic phase as the number of infections continues to rise and affect people around the world. Read also : Liberal Arts and the Community | Confessions of a Community College Dean.
What are the chances of getting seriously ill from Covid?
The risk of developing dangerous symptoms increases with age, and those 85 and older have the highest risk of serious symptoms. In the US, about 81% of deaths from this disease were in people age 65 and older. To see also : Austin-Travis County Health Authority Approves COVID-19 Vaccine for Young Children and Babies. The risks are even greater for older people when they have other health conditions.
What percentage of the population gets severe Covid? The gist of this column is that although COVID-19 can infect almost everyone in the human population, only about 5% are susceptible to severe infections requiring admission to the intensive care unit and/or causing death, and this population can be identified based on comorbidities and /…
Who is at high risk for severe COVID?
Older adults are at the highest risk of severe illness from COVID-19. More than 81% of deaths from COVID-19 occur in people over the age of 65. The number of deaths among people over the age of 65 is 97 times higher than the number of deaths among people aged 18 to 29.
What percent of Covid cases have severe symptoms?
80% of cases are mild 80.9% of infections are mild (with flu-like symptoms) and can be recovered at home. 13.8% are severe, developing severe diseases including pneumonia and difficulty breathing.
Is COVID-19 affecting the whole world?
While hundreds of thousands of people continue to die every day from this disease, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect almost every aspect of the daily lives of the global population.
Will Covid permanently change the world? COVID-19 will leave a lasting mark on the global economy, causing lasting changes and teaching important lessons. Virus checking is likely to become a part of our lives, just as security measures became ubiquitous after 9/11.
What is the biggest impact of Covid?
The June edition of Global Economic Prospects clearly states: ‘The COVID-19 has caused a global crisis like no other – a global health crisis that, in addition to the enormous human toll, is leading to the deepest global recessionary crisis since World War II.’ and per capita…
How is Covid affecting our world?
The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed healthcare systems around the world, affecting the diagnosis and treatment of other diseases. Social distancing and quarantine have reduced the rate of diagnosis of infectious diseases such as seasonal flu, as would be expected with reduced social contact.
