A Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 would result in thousands of casualties among the forces of China, the United States, Taiwan and Japan, and Beijing is unlikely to win, according to a prominent independent Washington think tank, which made a war game. simulations of a potential conflict are worrying military and political leaders in Asia and Washington.
A war on Taiwan could leave a defeated US army in a state as devastated as the Chinese forces managed to defeat.
At the end of the conflict, at least two US aircraft carriers would be lying at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean and China’s modern navy, the largest in the world, would be in shambles.
Those are among the conclusions drawn by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), after running what it says is one of the most extensive war simulations ever conducted of a potential conflict. there over Taiwan, the democratically ruled island of 24 million. The Chinese Communist Party claims it as part of its sovereign territory despite never having ruled it.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has refused to end the use of military force to bring the island under Beijing’s control.
CNN reviewed an advance copy of the report — titled “The First Battle of the Next War” — on the two dozen war scenarios run by CSIS, which said the project was needed because previous government and private war simulations were too narrow or too opaque. to give the public and policy makers an accurate picture of how a conflict across the Taiwan Strait might play out.
“There is no unclassified war game out there looking at the conflict between the United States and China,” said Mark Cancian, one of the three project leaders and a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Of the games that are unranked, they are usually only played once or twice.”
CSIS ran this 24-hour war game to answer two basic questions: would the invasion succeed and at what cost?
The answers to both of those questions are probably not huge and likely, the CSIS report said.
“The United States and Japan lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of service members. Such losses would harm US global standing for decades,” the report said. In most cases, the US Navy lost two aircraft carriers and between 10 and 20 large surface combatants. About 3,200 US troops have been killed in three weeks of combat, nearly half of what the US has lost in two decades of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“China is also suffering a lot. His navy is in shambles, the core of his naval forces is broken, and thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war,” he said. The report estimated that China would suffer about 10,000 troops killed and lose 155 combat aircraft and 138 large ships.
The situations portend a bleak future for Taiwan, even if the Chinese invasion is unsuccessful.
“Although Taiwan’s military is intact, it is deeply degraded and left to protect a damaged economy on an island without electricity and basic services,” the report said. The island’s army would have around 3,500 casualties, and all 26 destroyers and frigates will be deployed in its fleet, the report said.
Japan is likely to lose more than 100 combat aircraft and 26 warships and US military bases on its home soil under a Chinese attack, the report found.
But CSIS said it did not want its report to imply that war against Taiwan is “inevitable or even likely.”
“The Chinese leadership may adopt a strategy of diplomatic isolation, gray zone pressure, or economic coercion against Taiwan,” she said.
According to Dan Grazier, senior fellow for defense policy at the Project on Government Oversight (POGO), an all-out Chinese invasion of Taiwan is extremely unlikely. Such a military operation would immediately disrupt the imports and exports on which China’s economy depends for its survival, Grazier told CNN, and disrupting this trade risks the collapse of the Chinese economy. Chinese in short order. China relies on food and fuel imports to drive its economic engine, Grazier said, and has little room to maneuver.
“The Chinese will do everything they can in my estimation to avoid a military conflict with anyone,” Grazier said. To challenge the United States for global dominance, they will use industrial and economic power instead of military force.
But Pentagon leaders have labeled China as America’s “velocity threat” and last year’s China Military Power report ordered by Congress said “the PLA has increased provocative and destabilizing activities in and around the Taiwan Strait, to increased flights into to include Taiwan’s claimed air defense identification zone. and conduct exercises aimed at the possible seizure of one of Taiwan’s outlying islands.”
In August, then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island prompted a broad display of PLA military prowess, including launching missiles over the island and into Japan’s exclusive economic zone waters.
Since then, Beijing has applied aggressive military pressure measures to the island, sending fighter jets across the median line of the Taiwan Strait, the body of water separating Taiwan and China and into the island’s air defense identification zone – a buffer commonly referred to as airspace. as ADIZ.
Speaking about Taiwan at the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China in October, Chinese leader Xi Jinping won thunderous applause when he said China would “strive for peaceful reunification” – but then issued a grim warning, saying “we will never promise to abandon the use. force and we retain the discretion to take whatever action is necessary.”
The Biden administration has been steadfast in its support for the island as provided by the Taiwan Relations Act, which said Washington will provide the island with the means to defend itself without requiring U.S. troops for that defense.
The recently signed National Defense Authorization Act commits the US to a program to modernize Taiwan’s military and provides for $10 billion in security assistance over five years, a strong signal of long-term bipartisan support for the island.
However, Biden has said more than once that US military personnel would defend Taiwan if the Chinese military launched an invasion, even as the Pentagon insisted that Washington’s “One China” policy has not changed.
Under the “China Only” policy, the US recognizes China’s position that Taiwan is part of China, but has not officially recognized Beijing’s claim to the self-governing island.
“Wars happen even when objective analysis suggests that the aggressor may not succeed,” Cancian said.
The CSIS report said there were four constants that emerged among the 24 iterations of a war game it ran to prevent China’s US troops from taking control of Taiwan:
Taiwan’s ground forces must be able to hold the Chinese beachheads; the US must be able to use its bases in Japan for combat operations; the US must have long-range anti-ship missiles to hit the PLA from afar and “en masse”; and the US must give Taiwan a full hand before the shooting starts and jump into any conflict with its own forces immediately.
“There is no ‘Ukraine model’ for Taiwan,” the report said, referring to how US and Western aid slowly trickled into Ukraine well after Russia launched an invasion of its neighbor and no troops Neither the US nor NATO are actively fighting against Russia.
“When the war starts, it’s impossible to get any troops or supplies to Taiwan, so it’s a very different situation from Ukraine where the United States and its allies were able to continuously send supplies to Ukraine,” said Cancian. “Whatever the Taiwanese are going to fight the war with, they have to have that when the war starts.”
Washington will need to start acting soon if it is to meet some of the CSIS recommendations for success in the Taiwan conflict, the think tank said.
These include strengthening US bases in Japan and Guam against Chinese missile attacks; transferring its naval forces to smaller and more durable ships; prioritizing submarines; prioritizing sustainable bomber forces over combat forces; but produce cheaper fighters; and pushing Taiwan toward a similar strategy, arming itself with simpler weapon platforms rather than expensive ships unlikely to survive a Chinese strike.
Those policies would make victory less expensive for the US military, but the toll would still be high, the CSIS report said.
“The United States may have suffered a pyrrhic victory, suffering more in the long run than the stricken Chinese.”
“Winning isn’t everything,” the report said.
Can Russian nukes reach us?
Can Russian missiles reach the United States? According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, Russian land-based missiles could reach the US within 30 minutes, and submarine-launched missiles 10 or 15 minutes after launch.
How long would it take for a US nuclear missile to reach Russia? A land-based missile would take about 30 minutes to fly between Russia and the United States; a submarine-based missile could strike within 10 to 15 minutes of launch. See the article : In National Security | The US-China milspace competition is reaching a critical stage.
Can a nuclear bomb hit the United States from Russia?
In an all-out nuclear war between Russia and the United States, both countries would not be limited to firing nuclear missiles at each other’s homelands but would direct some of their weapons at other countries, including those that have they have nuclear weapons. These countries could send some or all of their armies in retaliation.
How far could Russian nuclear weapons reach?
He also said that other equipment that could fire smaller weapons would destroy his target. See the article : With Record Military Strikes, China Warns Taiwan and U.S.. For example, the 2S7 gun – caliber 203mm – has a range of about 37km [22 miles] and fires a shell weighing 110kg.
Is China more powerful than the US?
The United States has major advantages over China. The United States exceeds China in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), technology, and military spending. On the same subject : United States accuses DJI of being a ‘Chinese Military Company’. China’s GDP is 15 percent of global GDP, compared to 24 percent of the United States.
Is China more economically powerful than the US? China is already the world’s largest economy, its economy is more than 20 percent larger than the US economy, according to the IMF.
What if China went to war with US?
Will China ever overtake the US?
China’s gross domestic product will surpass that of the US around 2035, wrote the Goldman group led by Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas, while India’s GDP will narrowly surpass that of the US. around 2075.
Who would win in an all out war between US and Russia?
How strong is NATO compared to Russia? The collective military capability of the 30 countries that make up NATO exceeds Russia in terms of aircraft, at 20,723 to 4,173, and in naval power, with 2,049 military ships, to 605. Russia’s ground combat vehicle capability is more competitive, however. with 12,420. units, to 14,682.
Who is stronger US or Russia?
In terms of army size, Russia has 142,320,790 soldiers, compared to 334,998,398 soldiers in the US. With Russia, there are 69,737,187 people available, but there are 147,399,295 in the United States. Accordingly, the USA is more powerful than Russia.
What would happen if Russia and the US went to war?
A full-scale nuclear war between the US and Russia would destroy global food systems and over 5 billion people would starve to death.
Who has better military between US and Russia?
In short, Russia ranks 2nd out of 140 in military strength and the US ranks 1st. According to military population, Russia has 142,320,790 soldiers and the US has 334,998,398 soldiers. The available manpower is 69,737,187 with Russia and 147,399,295 with the United States.
Who is stronger between US and China?
Total manpower: According to the latest defense white paper, with 2 million active personnel, China has by far the largest military in the world. According to the Pentagon’s budget request for the upcoming fiscal year, the US military has 800,000 reserve personnel in addition to 1.35 million active duty members.
Who is the US military or China stronger? China’s naval ships outnumber America’s, and this summer it launched its third aircraft carrier, the first to be designed and built in the country. Its defense budget is second only to the United States. China’s military has more serving members, about 2 million, compared to just under 1.4 million in the US
