WASHINGTON/PARIS, Dec 19 (Reuters) – For nearly two years the United States has tried and failed to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran but Washington and its European allies refuse to close the door to diplomacy.
Their reasons reflect the danger of alternative approaches, the unpredictable consequences of a military strike on Iran, and the belief that there is still time to change Tehran’s course: even if it is heading towards fissile material that do not exist yet, and is not yet there. master the technology to build a bomb, according to officials.
“I think we have no better option than the JCPOA to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons,” Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, said in Brussels last week after a meeting of EU officials. Under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action under which Tehran reinstated its nuclear program in return for relief from economic sanctions.
“We have to continue to fight as much as possible to try to revive this market.”
The uphill climb to revive the deal has grown steeper this year. Iran has cracked down on popular protests, Iranian drones have allegedly made their way to aid Russia’s war in Ukraine and Tehran has accelerated its nuclear program, all of which add up the political price for Iran sanctions relief.
“Every day you see more and more pundits saying this is the worst time to revive the market and we should be pushing the wretched regime there,” said Robert Einhorn, a non-proliferation expert at the Brookings Institution think tank.
“There is a kind of resignation, even among the strong proponents of revival. Their hearts would pay the political price for revival, but their heads tell them that it would be really tough,” he said.
90% ENRICHMENT A RED LINE?
In 2018 former US President Donald Trump withdrew the 2015 measure that limited Tehran’s uranium enrichment to 3. To see also : FACTSHEET: Vice President Harris launches new initiatives to strengthen US-Philippines alliance.67% purity, well below the 90% considered bomb grade, in a key provision.
Trump reimposed US sanctions on Iran, prompting Tehran to resume previously banned nuclear work and reviving US, European and Israeli fears that Iran could seek an atomic bomb. Iran denies any such ambition.
Iran is now enriching uranium to 60%, including at Fordow, a site buried under a mountain, making it more difficult to destroy by bombing.
Obtaining fissile material is considered the biggest obstacle to making a nuclear weapon but there are others, not least the technical challenge of designing a bomb.
A US intelligence estimate revealed in late 2007 estimated with high confidence that Iran was working to develop nuclear weapons until the fall of 2003, when it stopped weapons work.
Diplomats said they believed Iran had not started enriching to 90%, which they said they saw as a red line.
“If Iran were to clearly restart its military program and enrich it at 90% then the whole debate in the United States, Europe and Israel changes,” said a Western diplomat, saying that the diplomatic path would remain open if that didn’t happen.
US politicians have become increasingly reluctant to take action because of Iran’s ruthless crackdown on protests that began after a 22-year-old Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, died in September in the custody of morality police. of Iran.
US President Joe Biden’s administration has tightened sanctions against Iran in recent months, targeting Chinese entities that facilitate the sale of Iranian crude and punishing Iranian officials for human rights abuses.
Still, even though negotiations have been halted, Enrique Mora, the European diplomat coordinating the nuclear talks, “keeps talking to all sides,” said a senior Biden administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
“We will continue the pressure and keep the door open to a return to diplomacy,” US special envoy for Iran Robert Malley told reporters in Paris last month, adding that if Iran crossed “a new threshold in its nuclear program, the answer is obvious. it will be different.” He did not swear.
DIPLOMACY MAY LIVE EVEN IF JCPOA DIES
Iran has linked the revival of the agreement to the closure of investigations by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) into traces of uranium at three sites. The United States and its allies did not agree to that condition.
Some Western diplomats said they did not believe there was any consideration of imminent military action against Iran and suggested that a strike could increase any Iranian desire to acquire nuclear weapons and the risk of Iranian retaliation. This may interest you : Joint statement by the leaders of India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the United States (I2U2).
“I don’t think … that anyone expects a military option soon,” said the Western diplomat. “The solution will not be military and I don’t hear many people calling for one.”
A third diplomat said he thought it was practically impossible for Israel to bomb Iran without Western support.
Even if the 2015 nuclear deal cannot be resurrected, the senior Biden administration official said other diplomatic solutions may be possible.
“Whether, when and how the JCPOA can be revived is a difficult question,” he said. “But even if the JCPOA were to die at some point, that would not mean that diplomacy would be buried at the same time.”
Reporting by Arshad Mohammed in Washington and John Irish in Paris; Editing by Don Durfee and Daniel Wallis
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
What to do if nuclear war breaks out?
The framework of the nuclear deal with Iran was a preliminary regime agreement reached in 2015 between the Islamic Republic of Iran and a group of world powers: the P5+1 (permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—the United States, the United Kingdom, the Russia). , France, and China – plus Germany) and Europe. On the same subject : Divided UN council fails to approve more major Taliban trips…
"You want to go towards the wind," Redlener said, adding: “Get as far as you can in the next 10 to 15 minutes, and then seek shelter immediately before the radiation cloud comes down.” The best shelters are buildings such as schools or offices with few windows and a basement for camping out.
How do you survive a nuclear attack at home?
Where is the safest place to live if there is a nuclear war? Some estimates name Maine, Oregon, Northern California, and West Texas as some of the safest places in the event of a nuclear war, due to their lack of large urban centers and nuclear power plants.
Can you survive a nuclear war?
If you are indoors during a radiation emergency: Stay indoors. Close and lock all windows and doors. Go to the basement or the middle of the building. Radioactive material settles on the outside of buildings; so the best thing to do is to stay as far away from the walls and roof of the building as possible.
What if a nuclear war broke out between US and Russia?
Nuclear weapons are deadly, and after impact on a large city thousands and thousands would likely die. But the worst destruction, where survival is least likely, is limited to a “heavy damage zone,” Buddemeier said.
How did Pakistan get nukes?
A full-scale nuclear war between the US and Russia would destroy global food systems and over 5 billion people would starve to death.
Pakistan’s development of nuclear weapons was a response to the loss of East Pakistan in the Bangladesh War of Independence in 1971. Bhutto convened a meeting of senior scientists and engineers on 20 January 1972, in Multan, known as the “Multan Meeting”.
When did Pakistan get nuclear weapons?
Did Pakistan get nukes before India? The countries have fought a series of wars since gaining independence from Great Britain in 1947, largely over the Kashmir region, which both countries claim. India became a nuclear power in 1974, and Pakistan became a nuclear power in 1998.
How did India get nukes?
Pakistan tested its first nuclear weapon in 1998, becoming the 7th state in the world to officially test a nuclear weapon.
How did Pakistan become nuclear power?
India’s loss to China in the Himalayan border war in October 1962 prompted the New Delhi government to develop nuclear weapons as a means of deterring a possible Chinese attack. By 1964 India was capable of developing nuclear weapons.
Can the US defend against nukes?
Amid a bitter rivalry with India, Pakistan became a nuclear power after testing its first bombs in 1998.
Any non-nuclear threat can be deterred and responded to by conventional US and Allied forces. The US nuclear arsenal is strong and will continue to deter adversaries from using nuclear weapons against it or its allies.
Can the United States stop a nuclear missile?
What is the US defense against nukes? Three shorter-range tactical anti-ballistic missile systems are currently in service: the US Army’s Patriot, the US Navy’s Aegis combat system/SM-2 missile, and Israel’s Arrow missile. Short-range tactical ABMs generally cannot intercept ICBMs, even if they are within range (Arrow-3 can intercept ICBMs).
Can United States defend against nuclear?
To increase the probability of an interception, the United States must fire multiple interceptors at each incoming ballistic missile. Currently, because its inventory of interceptors is limited, the United States can only fire a handful of ballistic missiles that have relatively unsophisticated countermeasures.
