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“Fed Watch” is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebellious nature. In each episode, we question mainstream narratives and Bitcoin by examining current macro events from around the world, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.

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In this episode, CK and I had the privilege of sitting down with Andreas Steno, who is the editor of Real Vision, co-host of the podcast “Macro Trading Floor” and author of the blog “Steno Signals” on Substack. Our discussion centers around the energy situation in Europe, but we start by talking about the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike. Steno has extensive knowledge of Bitcoin and his podcast “Macro Trading Floor” is hosted by Blockworks, this means we also got to pick his brain about his thoughts on the bitcoin market.

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Our timing for this interview was fortuitous, because we were able to speak with Steno immediately after the Fed released their policy decision – even before he made his own “Real Vision” breakdown.

We start by getting Steno’s broad reaction to the Fed’s policy decision. He states that Chairman Jerome Powell was crystal clear that they do not want the market to bet on a pivot. Read also : United States-Philippines Relations – United States Department of State. The dot plot showed that the average FOMC members expect the Fed to hike up to 4.5% by early 2023. The intention was also very clear, they want to lower asset prices, to crush demand.

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Interpreting The Consumer Price Index

The Fed is trying to be very clear about their goals and methods, and also very clear about the cause of their hawkish policy path, which is above the target CPI. This may interest you : Rising social unrest over energy and food shortages threatens global stability. I asked Steno about his thoughts on the US CPI numbers.

His thinking is in line with my own, that it looks as if the CPI has peaked, with the biggest component contributing to the August CPI being shelter, which is known to be the most lagging part of the basket. Therefore, if the lagging part of the basket is the only component that is still rising, it should mean that the price impulse is reversing.

Steno also says he expects the drop in CPI to catch most people off guard, and offers plenty of reasons, which you’ll have to see or hear.

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European Energy Crisis Overblown?

The topic I was most eager to talk about was the European energy crisis. Steno lives in Europe and has researched energy flow extensively. In the interview, he gives the numbers for natural gas storage and flows from around the world. Read also : Never Have I Ever Season 3 soundtrack: All the music featured in the Netflix series in episodes. It was also amazing to learn that perhaps the biggest factor that contributed to the insane price increases was the fact that European leaders ordered countries to rush to replenish their reserves. This caused everyone to buy excess natural gas at once. Now that the reserves are almost full, and it is before the peak season of natural gas use, there may be a reverse effect where prices crash.

In general, listening to Steno, I found the picture that the situation is less dire than the main financial picture leads us to believe. There will be some pain this winter, the economy has already experienced some consequences in the chemical industry and others, but it is not an event that will end civilization as many think.

In this episode, of course, we talk about bitcoin and the possibility of a breakdown in the euro currency. Steno has some strong opinions on the structure of the euro and the likelihood of bitcoin coming in and making a difference in a crash, but you’ll have to watch and listen to hear that.

This is a guest post by Ansel Lindner. The opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.

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