After Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, many ideas were raised about what China can and should do in response. Last week we reviewed some of the activities that readers sent me as a result of their own thinking. Many of these were confrontational and dangerous in nature, with the idea that Chinese retaliation could lead to war, even nuclear war. . Such ideas seem to have not considered the impact of such an event on the entire planet. Some thought irrationally – in my opinion – if there is no strong response (understood as a war) it shows weakness on the part of China.
By Sergio Rodríguez Gelfenstein
Trying to counter this idea perhaps, I wrote: “However, for those who thought China’s response was to shoot down Pelosi’s plane, invade Taiwan with an army, or the destruction of the island with many hypersonic missiles, is necessary. They say they don’t know anything about China, its philosophy, its history, or its politics and international relations.” However, a similar concern inspired me, so I went to research in order to find out what the Chinese people think fundamentally about their conflict with the United States.
For this reason, I will present the most important parts of a long article recently written by Dr. Huang Renwei, vice-president of the Institute of International Relations of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, has titled “Why China is arguing against the American hegemony. Entering an area of special crisis ?”
In general, the text describes this part of the crisis between China and the United States as a division between the areas of “intensification and de-escalation”. According to the author, this stage will last for about 30 years depending on the conditions that China can create to achieve its goal of becoming a modern power, the change of the balance of power between the US and China, and the many changes in the US administration and the adjustment they can make to their Chinese policies.
In an attempt to explain this interesting concept that points to the strategic nature of the conflict between the two forces, Dr Huang explains that the concept of “partial suppression planning” was created by Mao Zedong in his work “On Protracted War”, published. in Japan during the War of Resistance. It was then that Mao defined three stages for a war: the Japanese attack, the Chinese (or emergency) confrontation with Japan, and the Chinese attack.
On the basis of this idea, the author develops his opinion, but warns that compared to that conflict, there are three main differences and strategic competition between China and the United States today: first this new competition is not done internally. a basis of conflict like war. Second, it has been established that the third phase will not be marked by a counter-strategy, as China has no goal of completely defeating the United States. The third difference is that after a long period of strategic planning, the Sino-US relationship will “enter a state of coexistence and joint governance”.
The Chinese researcher believes that the situation of “horizontal balance” has three characteristics: the relative balance of power between the two sides, the how hard it is for either side to defeat the other, and to see what it means to win and lose. All this on the basis of both sides having a strong belief in their ability to resist and support the emergency: “the United States is sure that it will maintain the sovereignty of the world for more than 50 years, and China is confident that it will achieve great. national rejuvenation by 2050…”.
This current level of instability is reflected in the combination of strong Chinese and American policies. This is because the US remained strong throughout its recession, while China remained weak during its boom, which is changing. This means that the main reason is one of the unusual changes that will change over time.
For the United States, duality means widening the gap between its power and its goals, since the time when the United States and the Soviet Union became the superpowers in the bipolar world, their international authority was not complete. After the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the USSR, the United States became the world’s only superpower, establishing an unsustainable monopoly, as evidenced by the loss of troops from Afghanistan and the crisis in Ukraine.
However, in this period of the long decline of America, Washington is still the most powerful country in the world based on more financial resources, better science and technological innovation, greater military power and the ability to influence public opinion in the world. In this context, one must consider that the “reduction of sovereignty” is not the same as the “weakening of the world government” of the United States. In addition, the current international system inherited from the Second World War continues to be influenced in a certain way by the United States, although it is now trying to change this situation through the establishment of the so-called “constitutional international law”, which. nothing more than a new American punishment.
Meanwhile, the director of the Pudong Institute for the US Economy said that other variables should be considered, if the conflict between rising and protecting forces is inevitable in the process of giving power to big nations. In addition, whether the reduction of the power gap between the rise and the defense will create limitations and lead to special problems. In other words, it should be remembered that in 2001, China’s economy was 10 percent of America’s economy, but this year it is up to 77 percent. This number will continue to rise without the ability of the United States to stop China from acquiring and acquiring.
Another obvious debate is whether the fundamental conflict between China and the United States can turn into antagonism under some conditions, or cooperative relations under others. China and the United States have a high level of cooperation and common interests, and neither can completely abandon the friendly relationship with the other and implement the so-called the “decoupling”.
From my point of view, this last statement shows a rhetorical conflict, since it seems impossible in the future to have a “cooperative relationship” between the United States and China as this shows There is a conflict between socialism and capitalism, if any. It is true, as has been said many times and will be said again at the upcoming 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China, that the country is moving towards socialism. This issue is ignored in the analysis of Dr. Huang.
In a new part of the chapter, he also considered how long this phase of the crisis might last. The Chinese scholar thinks that this depends on the speed of change in the balance of power between the two sides. This power refers to a global competition that includes everything, including economic, military, organizational, political and public opinion in which scientific and technological competition is an important factor in establishing itself. a modern power of the whole world, so the speed of Chinese technology. Development will determine the duration of this phase. In four areas: science and technology, military, finance and soft power, the United States remains dominant and although the relationship with China is decreasing, it remains important although it is expected by 2035, China will reach the level of the United States. in key technological areas on the way to achieve the goals set for the centenary of its founding in 2049.
This is the basis for understanding the general situation of US-China relations in order to maintain the stability of the strategy, considering – as mentioned above – every change of the American president means a change of policies basis between the two forces. This situation should lead China to take advantage of these cyclical changes in order to have a strategic plan and take advantage of this recession period, avoiding a full conflict with the United States. Dr. concluded. Huang: “…if we want to avoid a conflict between the United States and China in 20 to 30 years, we must use […] that may arise in the next era.. “.
As you know, the issue is more complicated than the effects of Mrs. Pelosi on Taiwan, the humiliation or should have shot down his plane, and even the possibility of occupying Taiwan by force, an operation according to military standards. It should not present too many problems for China, but it will lead to a problem that Beijing wants to avoid at all costs, because the success of its thinking and philosophy is based on the won through the height of his weak power, as written. from the teachings of Confucius.
