(CNN) Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has already set off a fierce rhetorical response between the United States and China and fueled fears in Washington that Beijing will make unprecedented advances in the Taiwan Strait.
Yet neither the US nor China have any real interest in their nascent superpower rivalry boiling over into open military conflict at this point, despite the heightened tensions sparked by its arrival on Tuesday.
And yet, the showdown is over the issue that is more likely than any other to spark a war between the United States and China in the future. And Pelosi’s trip is almost certain to create more instability in the relationship that would make future conflict more likely.
Furious Chinese warnings that the California Democrat should not go and Washington’s vows not to be intimidated, meanwhile, show how inflamed political forces in each nation could make it nearly impossible to manage the world’s most sensitive geopolitical contest.
Pelosi and the congressional delegation that accompanied her said in a statement Tuesday that the visit “honors America’s unwavering commitment to support Taiwan’s vibrant democracy.”
A long-time critic of China’s communist government and its alleged human rights abuses arrived in Taipei despite extraordinary warnings from Beijing of retaliation and consequences.
Before Pelosi’s arrival, rhetoric was flying between Washington and Beijing.
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on NBC’s “Today” that China should “think very carefully” about escalating the situation and warned that the US would do whatever was necessary to protect its interests.
But Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi renewed President Xi Jinping’s warning in a call to President Joe Biden last week that Washington should not “play with fire” on Taiwan and reiterated Beijing’s “One China” policy.
Pelosi’s position and the new conditions created by Xi’s nationalist rule, as well as Beijing’s new assertiveness and military and strategic power, make this the most dangerous upheaval over Taiwan in decades.
Given that Pelosi is in Taipei, the question now is how Beijing will respond. Most of his options – following a barrage of threats and propaganda that have raised expectations for his riposte – are quite scary. Most analysts think some sort of military show of force is likely, at a time when China has already been sending its jets into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone in unprecedented numbers. While China’s moves may not directly threaten US naval forces in the area, they could add to the potential for miscalculations – and also raise the possibility of how Taiwan would respond to serious provocations.
Why would Pelosi go?
So why did Pelosi go and would her trip needlessly anger China’s leadership? On the same subject : American law is as old as gun politics.
Supporters of the visit, which unusually includes many Republicans who are behind Pelosi, say it is essential for the speaker to show support for Taiwan and underline that Washington is serious about its legal commitment to offer a means to the island defends itself. Pelosi is also a symbol of democracy – a way of life that Taipei is desperate to preserve under China’s authoritarian shadow.
But the debate is not limited to Taiwan. This relates to a wider context from China’s construction challenge to America’s determination to preserve democracy, Western values and military and economic primacy in the Pacific and across the world.
Once news of Pelosi’s expected visit broke, it became politically unlikely—both domestically and for strategic reasons—for her to bow to Beijing’s warnings that she should not go. It would be unpleasant for Pelosi, following a political career defined in part by standing up to China, to abandon her plan. And it would send a message that the United States, in one of its first standoffs with a confident new superpower competitor in the Pacific, would back down.
Biden also had political considerations. Although he publicly admitted that the US military was concerned about the visit, he could not openly side with China over Pelosi. And a President can hardly dictate to one of the main representatives of another branch of government what he should and should not do, even if officials worked to inform the speaker of all the possible consequences of her decision.
Politics are driving China’s actions too
Politics rages within the Chinese politburo as well, although many in the West often view China’s communist leadership as monolithic. Xi built his power base on aggressive nationalism and the idea that Taiwan is destined to “reunify” with the mainland. He is determined to preside over a national revival that will wash away China’s past shame over colonialism and long isolation in the 20th century when it did not use what it sees as its rightful influence in the world.
So Pelosi’s expected visit is more than a jab at China; it’s a personal slight to Xi’s core project from one of the US’s most senior politicians – and it’s one that demands a political response. This may interest you : National Guatemalan convicted of smuggling an unaccompanied child into the United States.
The crisis also comes at a critical moment in Beijing. In a few months, Xi is poised to claim an unusual third term and cannot afford to be seen as weak. And his government’s questionable handling of the Covid-19 pandemic – mass lockdowns are still common in Chinese cities – and a slowing economy, means Xi could be tempted into a nationalist stance to hide domestic liabilities.
A long festering dispute
Although the current situation is alarming, Taiwan has long been an irritant in relations between the United States and China. This may interest you : Memorandum to Combat Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing and Associated Labor Abuse. The dispute is made even more confusing by complex diplomatic agreements and nuanced US strategic doctrines designed to avoid the possibility of war with China.
The island is considered by Beijing as a rightful part of its territory. The United States recognizes the People’s Republic of China on the mainland as the sole legitimate government of China and does not consider Taiwan a country. But he does not accept the Chinese Communist Party’s claim of sovereignty over the democratic island. Although it offers Taiwan a means of self-defense when it buys US-made weapons, Washington has adopted a policy of purposeful ambiguity about whether it would itself defend Taiwan, in part to prevent a declaration of independence from Taipei and to give leaders in Beijing have second thoughts about a forceful occupation of the island.
Robert Daly, a former US diplomat in Beijing, said on Monday that China’s eventual response – perhaps, for example, an attack on Taiwan’s airspace, was unlikely to cause war but would push rivals closer to danger zone.
“That will establish a new baseline that will lead us a little closer to conflict,” Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Wilson Center, told CNN’s Pamela Brown.
“I don’t think we will face a conflict this time, but I don’t think we will be better off in our relations with Beijing a week from now than we are today.”
Why Biden worries about the trip
Biden has reorganized US foreign policy around the principle of countering China’s growing power in Asia and beyond. Thirty years ago, Washington hoped that by encouraging a then retreating China into the global economy, it could promote political liberalization and usher it into the global economic and political system that focuses on the West. But Beijing has tried to use its growing military and political power and influence to build an alternative political and economic value system to that represented by the United States and its allies.
But Biden also wants to manage this new competitive relationship so that it does not lead to a war between the rising power in the Pacific (China) and the current one (the United States) and its allies.
The US leader stressed in a phone call with Xi last week that there has been no change to the fundamental nature of US-China relations or the White House’s position on Taiwan. Yet to be seen from Beijing, Biden’s recent repeated statements that the United States would defend Taiwan, which were all walked back by aides, may have left an impression that is not sincere.
China is also watching a growing movement among hawks in Congress for Washington to replace the policy of “strategic ambiguity” over US intentions if China invades Taiwan for a clear statement that the US would defend the island.
Some analysts say such a shift could not only risk dragging the United States into a Pacific war against China for which Americans are unprepared, but could also make Beijing even more aggressive. Or that the promise of a US shield could embody a push for independence in Taiwan that could also force China’s hand and bring a wider military conflict over the island closer.
Before Pelosi’s visit, official statements from administration officials firmly reiterated that there had been no change to US policy and upheld her right to travel but hinted at the possibility of a rocky few weeks when China responds in whatever form.
“There is no reason for the Chinese rhetoric. There is no reason for any action to be taken. It is not uncommon for congressional leaders to travel to Taiwan,” White House National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby said in during an appearance on CNN’s “New Day” Monday.
“We, as a country, should not be intimidated by that rhetoric or those possible actions.”
But in a new statement on Monday, Zhang Jun, the Chinese ambassador to the United Nations, again warned that China’s military would not “sit idly” while Pelosi visited and that her trip would have “tremendous political impact.”
The assumption in Washington is that Xi is no more interested in a direct military showdown than Biden is. But he is stronger than previous Chinese leaders. And there is a strong nationalistic streak within the Chinese military along with growing confidence about its ability.
So making assumptions about how China would react to Pelosi’s visit based on its behavior in past crises that have blown over could leave the US in for an unpleasant surprise.
This story and headline have been updated with additional developments.
