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Taking a moment to catch our breath after the explosion of the 2022 Receiver Market, which began in earnest last March when the Raiders traded Davante Adams for first- and second-round picks, and ended in July when the 49ers they signed Deebo Samuel at three. — one-year extension worth $71,550,000 — it’s fair to wonder what could happen for the next crop of receivers.

In particular, this is the financial future of Ja’Marr Chase of the Bengals and Justin Jefferson of the Vikings. Both are younger than — and possibly better than — any of the receivers who dominated this offseason. If the behavior of the receiver market reflects that of most other robust position markets, we will have a game of AAV (average annual value) jump, with each deal slightly eclipsing the last. Receivers are also starting to close the gap on quarterbacks in terms of overall catch percentage faster than any other position. At the moment, only two nonquarterbacks have an AAV of $30 million or more: Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald ($31.6 million) and Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill ($30 million). Adams ($28 million) and Cooper Kupp ($26.7 million) both have a higher AAV than Myles Garrett ($25 million), Khalil Mack ($23.5 million), Maxx Crosby ($23.5 million) and Trent Williams ($23 million), a collection of pass rushers. and protectors who, prior to this summer, made up the list of the highest-paid nonquarterbacks in football.

So we asked three NFL agents where they put the monetary value of Chase and Jefferson’s second. Jefferson, who will be eligible for a contract extension next offseason, will obviously sign a deal before Chase, who cannot negotiate until after the 2023 season. (And, for the record, none of these agents represent Chase nor Jefferson.)

Here’s what the Jefferson and Chase contracts could look like, according to agents:

• Agent A: $28 – $30 million per year.

• Agent B: $30-$32 million per year, although the agent believed the market would grow to $32 million and did not see the position going much higher.

• Agent C: We are asking the wrong question. It’s not necessarily about the AAV when it comes to wide receivers, and it’s more about a period that we may be entering when receivers, like quarterbacks, can start to inch closer to fully guaranteed contracts.

When we took the answer from Agent C and put it to Agent B, the person’s answer: Why not both? A short-term deal worth about $32 million per season that is close to fully guaranteed.

Of the $71,550,000 that Samuel received from the 49ers, $58.1 million of that money would be considered a practical guarantee, as analyzed by Spotrac. This means that it is more likely that Samuel will see the majority of that $58.1 million, or more than 81% of the total value of the contract. Kupp’s three-year, $80.1 million deal contains $75 million in practical guarantees, meaning it’s more than likely Kupp will receive close to 90% of the total value of the contract. Terry McLaurin signed a deal this offseason in which he is likely to receive close to 78% of the $68.3 million he signed. And DK Metcalf should get about 80% of his $72 million deal.

Compare that with Hill’s contract, for example. He is more likely to see about 60% of his $120 million. A.J. Brown’s $100 million deal with the Eagles has about $57 million (57%) in practical guarantees. Christian Kirk, whose signing sparked a definitive signal that we were in an animated receiver market, will receive about half of the four-year, $72 million he signed in terms of practical guarantees.

This is where we can separate a bit the contracts that made noise versus the contracts that moved forward. (Some are, obviously, both.)

Agent B says the search for more guaranteed money: The Browns signed Deshaun Watson (five years, $230 million fully guaranteed) shed a light on how much owners could spend on a whim if they felt like it. Players know there is more money up front.

Receivers, in particular, know that the time to hit is now. While we’ve written glowingly about an offense this offseason that doesn’t seem to care much about the position at all, receivers are now a highly coveted commodity for most GMs. We’re in a golden age for the position, and the receiver’s value seems to be recognized even when quarterback play is inconsistent (think McLaurin). Hill (paired with Tua Tagovailoa) will be a worthwhile test case this year. Adams (going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr) will be another.

So, when Chase and Jefferson naturally try to knock each other out as the next heavyweights at the bargaining table, will we see the market value rise toward $40 million a year? Not if they are smart. The true power play may eclipse Kupp, both in terms of his AAV ($80.1 million) and his virtually guaranteed money percentage. As of now, we are definitely headed in that direction. The real question is whether more owners will stop pretending that the money in their pockets is only reserved for those who play quarterback.

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