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INDIANAPOLIS — As conference expansion progresses, Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren has left us clues to follow in recent days. Warren’s hints at further expansion could result in another bombshell to shake the Pac-12.

The Big Ten is evaluating the viability of adding Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington from the Pac-12 to expand its conference to at least 20 teams, sources told CBS Sports this week.

While he did not confirm expansion activities with those specific schools, Warren told CBS Sports that adding any teams outside of USC and UCLA (joining in 2024) would come after the current media rights deal is finalized in August.

“We’re not ‘targeting,'” Warren said when CBS Sports asked directly about the four programs’ candidacy. “As I said, my focus is on taking care of our 14 institutions.”

However, it’s fair to say that the statements made during Warren’s State of the Union address at Big Ten Media Days this week raised concerns among college athletics that another bombshell could be dropped. Action Network first reported the Big Ten’s interest in those programs.

The idea of ​​adding Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington would be to establish a western partition that would be academically attractive enough for Big Ten presidents to approve further expansion. However, it is uncertain whether any of the future Big Ten franchise owners will find value in such a move.

Financially, those four programs aren’t worth anywhere near the money that Big Ten schools with USC and UCLA are now expected to distribute ($80 million to $100 million per year). However, when it comes to competition, it would be a lifeline for the Pac-12’s next best football brands.

Oregon has played for a championship, Washington has two titles and Stanford is considered the Pac-12’s next best football prospect because of the excellence established by Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw. Stanford and Cal are also known for their highly successful athletic departments. Oregon’s desperation was previously reported by CBS Sports, and Cal’s dismissal of UCLA even drew the ire of California Governor Gavin Newsom.

A 20-team Big Ten would be arguably the largest collection of football brands in the history of major college sports. It would also give pause to a university-based enterprise that is trying to figure out its future these days.

Warren used some form of the word “bold” eight times on Tuesday. In his address, he used “aggressive” three times. Unlike SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey last week, Warren dropped a veiled warning: The Big Ten may not be over.

“From an expansion standpoint, the answer is … we’re not in the market, but we’re always looking for what makes sense,” Warren told CBS Sports.

“Every day I get asked, ‘What’s next?'” Warren said during his Big Ten address. “This may include future expansion, but it will be done for the right reasons at the right time with our student-athletes, academic and athletic empowerment at the center of any decisions we make regarding further expansions.”

Industry sources tell CBS Sports that Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington will not bring the value needed as the 16 teams that will make up the league in 2024 with USC and UCLA. That could lead to the four programs taking significantly less revenue from existing members just to have long-term security in the Big Ten.

The revenue cuts taken by Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington by joining the Big Ten — compared to other conference members — should be “significant,” industry sources say. This would be a headache for rights holders trying to restructure a contract that is already in place.

However, the revenue those four teams could receive would still likely be far greater than the combined value of the 10 remaining Pac-12 schools combined. That number is estimated at $21 to $30 million annually per school.

However, rights holders who receive a portion of the lucrative Big Ten contract (which is still being negotiated) would be forced to allocate additional funds to those schools. The Big Ten contract is already projected to be around $1 billion a year.

The inclusion of those four programs would trigger “dilution,” an industry term for the proportion of attractive games reduced by the addition of nonstandard inventory.

The move could also topple the Pac-12, which is desperately trying to stay together with its 10 existing members. The question then becomes: Would further expansion of the Big Ten force the SEC to take appropriate action? This after Sankey indicated last week that his conference was currently in an expansion phase.

“I believe that Greg and I have a greater responsibility to be careful in our steps,” Warren told CBS Sports. “I always ask myself, ‘Will this decision make sense in 50 years?'”

There is a responsibility to upset top college athletics. With those four schools, the Big Ten would have more than 30% of the current 65 Power Five teams.

And that doesn’t include the possible addition of Notre Dame if it decides to give up its independence. Stanford joining the Big Ten would make the league even more attractive to the Fighting Irish, a source previously told CBS Sports.

“I embrace change,” Warren said. “I’m going to be very aggressive. I’ve been that way my whole career.”

College athletic sources spoke to CBS Sports with concerns about the tone of Warren’s address Wednesday. They believed that even if Warren was aggressive in expanding further, keeping to himself instead of sending waves of concern through college athletics would be a more sensible move.

“We’re not going to expand just to expand,” Warrens said. “It will be strategic; it will add value to our conference.”

Asked about his requirements when looking for new members, Warren went through his checklist.

“Good fit. It’s more of a holistic view,” Warren told CBS Sports. “Underneath that, it’s academic stability. Two, athletic strength. Three, their alumni base. Four, their fan base. Five, the progressive nature of their leadership. That’s what made USC and UCLA so special.”

Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington are members of the prestigious Association of American Universities (AAU), a group of top research institutions. In the current Big Ten, only Nebraska is not a member.

The money problem and the upheaval caused by further expansion led one prominent observer to wonder: Would it make more sense for those four to stay out West in a revamped Pac-12 than to have athletes travel across the country in a new league that might be less competitive?

The Big Ten may answer that more athletic question. What moral obligation would the league have in reorganizing top college athletics? Academically, four schools match the Big Ten, but at what cost to the rest of the Power Five?

“We have work to do today because the business of college athletics has grown faster than the structure and management of college athletics,” Warren said.

Such a move would strip the Pac-12 of half its members. Sources indicate the Pac-12 would likely have to reform to stay afloat with invitations from the likes of San Diego State and Fresno State. One label placed on that grouping was “Mountain West Plus.”

The Pac-12 could be in danger on two fronts. The Big 12 is also focusing on westward expansion with Arizona, at least according to sources. There is no indication whether Arizona State will follow, though CBS Sports previously reported that ASU, Colorado and Utah were Big 12 targets.San Diego State is in the running for both the Pac-12 and Big 12, sources indicate.

Further expansion would be the latest in a series of bold moves Warren has made since taking office on January 1, 2020.

After two months on the job, Warren upset his colleagues by canceling the season due to concerns about COVID-19. He later relented, but a late start to the season nearly cost Ohio State a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes did not play the required number of games to qualify for the Big Ten Championship that year. Parents of players protested outside the Big Ten office that year demanding the start of the season.

Sportico reported Tuesday that Big Ten athletic directors were considering a vote of no confidence in Warren in 2020.

“He inherited a nightmare,” said Barry Alvarez, the former Wisconsin coach and athletic director who now serves as the Big Ten’s senior football adviser. “You come during the pandemic. There is no book. How can I solve it?” Every meeting is on Zoom. I think Kevin’s first face-to-face meeting was last May with the coaches and ads. I really think he’s grown with the league.”

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