The upcoming retirements of Roger Federer, Serena Williams and Rafael Nadal, winners of a total of 65 single major titles, have worried about the end of tennis glory days. But a bigger existential crisis is facing sport: climate change.
All sports, if they haven’t already, should suffer in an overheating world. Rising sea levels could flood arenas and stadiums. Increased use of artificial snow could result in more serious injuries for skiers and biathletes. Stronger storms and fires could wreak havoc on all league schedules. But few sports are likely to do worse than tennis. The sport follows the sun 10 months a year and over 80% of its tournaments are played outdoors. And in tennis, there are no substitutions: players spend hours on the court without teammates ready to take their place while they rest.
In some ways, tennis could suffer as much as endurance events like the marathon, where athletes are always on the move and constantly exposed to heat, said Debra Stroiney, a professor of kinesiology at George Mason University.
“By running a marathon, you are out there for hours, constantly working,” he said. “But tennis is also out there sometimes three, four, five hours, depending on the game, and yes, every now and then you sit down, without hitting the ball every now and then. But they are also around and are constantly on the move ”.
To study the future of tennis in a warming world, we used the maximum temperature and relative humidity forecasts of five climate models produced as part of the sixth assessment report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. All of these predictions assume that we continue on our current fossil fuel-intensive trajectory, which is expected to lead to approximately 6 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit warming from pre-industrial levels through the end of this century. (The planet has already warmed by about 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit since the pre-industrial era, from the mid to late 1800s.)
Using predictions from multiclimatic models that cover a range of expectations, we could determine the highest temperature predicted by any model for each day. We calculated the average maximum temperature and extreme maximum temperature, or a “maximum of maximum temperatures”, to provide an idea of what we might expect if a heat wave occurs during a future tournament. For example, what could be the warmest temperature during the Australian Open 2050 in Melbourne?
To be clear, these daily forecasts are not weather forecasts. But they do provide a window into how climate change could shift what we now consider normal weather to new extremes.
Tennis in 2050 will likely be hot — and not just the action
Predicted average maximum and extreme maximum temperatures (in Fahrenheit), heat and relative humidity indices during tennis Grand Slams in 2050, according to five climate models Read also : How it worked for (and what we can learn from) the major offenders of the game.
In the finals of the Australian Open 2050, a temperature of 147 degrees Fahrenheit could be felt, 1 with an air temperature of 105.4 and a relative humidity of 58.2%. When Ash Barty made Australian tennis history there earlier this year, the high air temperature at Melbourne Park was over 30 degrees lower, at 71.
At the 2050 French Open in Paris, players were able to experience a heat index of 113 degrees, with the temperature likely to reach 90. The maximum when Nadal won his record 14 Roland Garros title at the beginning of this month? 72 degrees.
At Wimbledon, gardening staff will have to work hard to keep lawns lush and tidy, as it could feel 102 degrees in London in 2050. But it could feel like a respite from the 2050 US Open in New York, where the heat index could rise to 145 degrees.
Tennis has already experienced the dangers of a warmer planet. Croatia’s Ivan Dodig wondered if “he might even die” before retiring from a 2014 Australian Open match. “Impossible to play in this heat … it’s just about surviving,” tweeted Elena Vesnina from Russia during the tournament.
Last year at the Tokyo Olympics, Russian Daniil Medvedev expressed similar concerns: “I am a fighter, I will finish the match, but I can die,” he told the chair referee during the game. “If I die, will the ITF [International Tennis Federation] take responsibility?”
At the 2018 US Open, Roger Federer was shocked in the fourth round in some of the hottest conditions he could remember. “I just struggled with the conditions tonight. It is one of the first times that this has happened to me, “he said.” At one point I was also happy that the game was over.
Gamers have already been endangered by the collateral damage of climate change. Smoke from fires that scientists believe is more likely to occur due to rising global temperatures caused Slovenia’s Dalila Jakupović to withdraw from the Australian Open 2020 qualifying match which was leading. “I couldn’t breathe anymore and I fell to the ground,” she said.
ATP, WTA, and Grand Slam tournaments all have extreme heat policies or ways to give players more breaks in dangerous conditions. But barring more frequent stops during matches, how can tennis survive on a warmer planet?
The key factor will be the players’ core body temperature. Our bodies are typically around 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit, of course, but when they warm up between 101 and 104 degrees Fahrenheit, the risk of heat sickness increases, said Ethan Hill, a professor at the School of Kinesiology and Physical Therapy at the ‘University of Central Florida. At 104 degrees or above, we risk suffering heat stroke and potential organ failure.
How a person’s body reacts to heat depends on the individual and, more importantly, on whether the player is well hydrated and acclimated to the heat. Accustomed players typically sweat earlier, helping their bodies stay cooler, Hill said. But overall, Hill and Stroiney said, tennis players can expect to see more heat sickness in such extreme weather conditions. “We have that known limit,” Stroiney said. “Our bodies will say ‘no’, or the core temperature will rise to a point where our brains will actually say ‘stop’.”
Tennis has ways to mitigate this risk, including hosting more indoor tournaments, Stroiney said, and fewer matches during the heat of the day, Hill said.
Tennis could also use innovative ways to cool down players, Hill said. For example, during changeovers or set breaks, vests and cooling fans can be used to lower the players’ core temperature. Tournaments often offer players ice towels and fans in extremely hot conditions.
Hill is also encouraged by research into the use of sodium and glycerol supplementation to help electrolyte and hydration levels, although he stressed that more research is needed, especially in environments with extreme heat.
“It will be incredibly important to start developing strategies to cool people down,” Hill said. “This will obviously become more important as the planet continues to warm and as we continue to compete in these warm climates.”
Tennis officials understand the risks to players and point out strategies such as maintaining hydration and encouraging players to acclimate. “When players consistently train and compete in higher temperatures, the body adapts through acclimatization and [this] allows the body to perform at higher levels,” said through a spokesman Todd Ellenbecker, vice president of medical services for the ‘ATP. “Careful planning, preparation, combined with optimal fitness levels, help athletes adapt to sports performance in the heat.”
Hill and Stroiney agree that acclimatization will be key for athletes. Within a week, acclimatized athletes can retain 2 to 3 liters of extra water and maintain a lower heart rate while exercising, Hill said.
But it’s not as simple as applying established strategies and expecting similar results. With the extreme heat heavier, both Hill and Stroiney wonder how our typical physiological responses will fare or whether new solutions may be needed somehow. For example, athletes generally take two weeks to fully acclimate, Hill said. “Now, as the planet warms, it may take longer,” he said.
The body also naturally moves warm blood from the core to the skin to help cool the body, he said. “It’s a pretty efficient process that improves with heat acclimatization,” Hill said. “But … when the planet gets this hot, will that physiological response still be effective?”
Stroiney has similar doubts, and it’s personal. He played tennis and ran 10 marathons. But she, like some tennis players, doesn’t do well in the heat. How will she and the other athletes perform in ever-increasing temperatures?
Hill is optimistic that tennis, or the world, will change before heatwaves and disease deplete the sport. “I don’t think it’s all fate and darkness,” he said. “We just have to be very aware that it will be warmer.”
So in nearly 30 years, when Federer, Williams and Nadal share their stories about the Grand Slam championships, they may also be telling stories of the long-forgotten days of outdoor tennis.
Jonathon Braden is a freelance journalist based in Washington, DC who has been covering tennis for the past 10 years. @jonathonbraden
Matt Fitzpatrick is a quantitative ecologist at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science. His research focuses on understanding the distribution of life on Earth and how it will be affected by climate change.
