Even if humanity manages not to self-destruct with wars or climate change, there are still other existential threats that we must be prepared for.
Earth came pre-loaded with many dangers long before we started to huddle together, some of which our species has barely experienced.
One of the most glaring dangers comes from asteroids, like the one suspected to ravage dinosaurs 65 million years ago. As we try to anticipate our own doomsday, the warning story of the dinosaurs seems to suggest that we direct our vigilance upward.
This makes sense, and humans are wisely preparing in ways that dinosaurs could not, with investments in asteroid tracking and even deflection.
But as two researchers point out in a new commentary in the journal Nature, we shouldn’t let asteroid anxiety overshadow another colossal danger lurking under our noses: volcanoes.
“Over the next century, large-scale volcanic eruptions are hundreds of times more likely to occur than asteroid and cometary impacts combined,” write Michael Cassidy, professor of volcanology at the University of Birmingham, and Lara Mani, researcher Associate at the Center for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge.
While preparing for asteroids is prudent, we’re doing very little about the most likely event of a volcanic “super-eruption,” argue Cassidy and Mani.
Global governments and agencies spend hundreds of millions of dollars annually on planetary defense, they write, including a new US experiment to fend off space rocks.
NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission will soon test the feasibility of asteroid deflection by trying to move an asteroid off course. The DART mission will cost around $330 million, and while it’s a bargain if it saves us from an asteroid, Cassidy and Mani note that there’s no comparable investment to prepare for a superflare.
“This needs to change,” they write.
Volcanoes may be less exotic than fireballs from space, but that’s all the more reason to respect them: volcanoes, unlike asteroids, are already here on Earth. They are scattered across the planet, often covered with picturesque landscapes that hide their destructive potential.
And while humans have seen many terrible eruptions in modern times, most pale in comparison to the supervolcanoes that erupt every 15,000 years or so.
The last such supereruption happened about 22,000 years ago, according to the US Geological Survey. (A “super-eruption” is one with magnitude 8, the highest rating on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI.)
The most recent magnitude 7 eruption occurred in 1815 at Mount Tambora in Indonesia, killing an estimated 100,000 people.
The ash and smoke lowered global temperatures by about 1 degree Celsius on average, causing the “Year Without a Summer” in 1816. There were widespread crop failures, leading to famine, disease outbreaks and violence.
Volcano monitoring has improved since 1815, as has our ability to rally global support for disaster relief, but not necessarily enough to offset all the risks we face now.
Earth’s human population has increased eightfold since the early 1800s, Cassidy and Mani note, and some large urban areas have flourished near dangerous volcanoes. We are also more dependent on global trade, so unrest in one place can spur food shortages and other crises elsewhere.
The danger posed by volcanoes may also be greater than we think. In a 2021 study based on data from ancient ice cores, researchers found that the intervals between catastrophic eruptions are hundreds or even thousands of years shorter than previously believed.
The history of many volcanoes remains obscure, making it difficult to predict future eruptions and concentrate resources where the risks are greatest. We need more research on ice cores, as well as historical and geological records, write Cassidy and Mani, including marine and lake cores, especially in high-risk but data-poor regions such as Southeast Asia.
We also need more cross-disciplinary research to help us predict how a super-eruption could cripple civilization, they add, identifying risks to trade, agriculture, energy and infrastructure, as well as geographic “pinch points” where volcanic hazards overlap with commercial networks. criticism.
More comprehensive volcano monitoring is also vital, including terrestrial monitoring as well as aerial and satellite observation. The researchers note that volcanologists have long craved a satellite that specializes in volcano observation, which could increase preparedness beyond the current system of sharing existing satellites with other scientists.
Community awareness and education is another key to resilience. People need to know if they live in volcanic danger zones, how to prepare for an eruption, and what to do when it does.
In addition to preparatory outreach, officials also need ways to broadcast public alerts when volcanoes erupt, write Cassidy and Mani, such as text messages with details on evacuations, tips for surviving an eruption, or directions to shelters and health facilities. .
The commentary was published in the journal Nature.
Domestically, four volcanoes in the United States are on the GVP list of erupting volcanoes, including Kīlauea and three volcanoes in Alaska: Pavlof, on the Alaska Peninsula, has been on the list since August 2021; Great Sitkin in the central Aleutian Islands since May 2021 and Semisopochnoi in the …
Will Yellowstone give warning?
Yes, the Yellowstone supervolcano could wipe out humanity, but we will have years of warning. To see also : August 4 Vallejo/Vacaville Arts and Entertainment Source: Music Among The Stars in Vallejo. Supervolcanoes give you years in advance.
How do we know when Yellowstone will erupt? Will Yellowstone Volcano Erupt Soon? Another caldera-forming eruption is theoretically possible, but very unlikely in the next thousand or even 10,000 years. Scientists have also not found any indication of an impending minor eruption of lava in more than 30 years of monitoring.
How much warning would we have if Yellowstone erupted?
A new analysis of quartz crystals from the site of a supervolcano that erupted 760,000 years ago suggests that supervolcanoes may give us about a year’s warning before they erupt. This is according to a study by scientists at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee, published July 20, 2016 in the journal PLOS One.
Will there be a warning if Yellowstone erupts?
When will Yellowstone erupt? Yellowstone is not late for an eruption. Volcanoes do not function in a predictable way and their eruptions do not follow predictable schedules. This may interest you : The Stepping Stones are celebrating 20 years in the industry with author events. Even so, the math doesn’t work for the volcano to be “late” for an eruption.
What was the first volcano to erupt in 2022?
The eruption of the Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha’apai volcano on January 15, 2022 was the largest recorded since the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883. The eruption triggered tsunami waves of up to 15m that hit the west coast of Tongatapu, ‘USA. This may interest you : Seahawks training camp: Youth movement in full force. and Ha’apai. Ashfall covered an area of at least five square kilometers.
What is the most active volcano in 2022? Mauna Loa: Preparing for the Next Eruption of Earth’s Largest Active Volcano – Volcano Awareness Month 2022 Geonarrative | United States Geological Survey. ONE .
Where was the volcano that just erupted 2022?
On December 20, 2021, an eruption began at Hunga Tonga – Hunga HaÊ»apai, an undersea volcano in the Tonga archipelago in the South Pacific Ocean. The eruption reached a very large and powerful climax nearly four weeks later on January 15, 2022.
What volcano erupted this year?
The violent eruption of Tonga’s Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano injected an unprecedented amount of water directly into the stratosphere — and the steam will remain there for years, likely affecting Earth’s weather patterns, NASA scientists say.
What are the 3 super volcanoes in the US?
The United States is home to three active supervolcanoes, the USGS has determined: the famous Yellowstone, Long Valley and Valles Caldera in New Mexico.
What are the 3 supervolcanoes? Volcanoes that have produced extremely massive pyroclastic eruptions and formed large caldera over the past 2 million years include Yellowstone in northwest Wyoming, Long Valley in eastern California, Toba in Indonesia and Taupo in New Zealand.
What is the biggest supervolcano in the US?
Yellowstone National Park is situated atop a supervolcano that is capable of an 8th magnitude eruption. It has had three massive eruptions, all of which created calderas. The first eruption occurred about 2.1 million years ago, and the second occurred about 800,000 years later.
What are the names of the super volcanoes in the United States?
Three of the seven supervolcanoes are located in the continental US: Yellowstone, Long Valley Caldera and Valles Caldera.
- The best-known supervolcano is in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming (shown above). …
- Moving southwest into California’s Inyo National Forest is the Long Valley Caldera.
