This week, we talk to Jonathan Miller, CEO and co-founder of real estate appraisal and advisory firm Miller Samuel. He is an adjunct associate professor at the Graduate School of Architecture and Planning at Columbia University. he also serves on the Mayor’s Economic Advisory Committee and the Economic Advisory Council of the New York State Budget Division. His research and analysis powers the back-end of some of the largest real estate brokerages.
We discuss the decline in real estate demand due to the near doubling of rates; the volume of contacts is down and has been following this trend since March. Collapsing inventories are also to blame, as is declining affordability.
During most real estate downturns, sales activity slows immediately, as inventory increases. But prices tend to take a few years to reflect the new market, waiting for sellers to capitulate. Miller hopes we might see a quicker adjustment given the recent large increase in home equity.
It also explains why it is so difficult to convert urban office towers into residential buildings. Major cities like New York and San Francisco find themselves with a surplus of office buildings that are about 2/3 empty, while there is an acute shortage of residences at most price levels.
A list of his favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here this week.
You can stream and download our full conversation, including podcast supplements on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Google, Bloomberg and Acast. All of our previous podcasts on your favorite pod hosts are available here.
Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week, Perth Tolle, with the founder of Life + Liberty Indexes, index provider and sponsor of the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF. This one-of-a-kind strategy uses parameters of personal and economic freedom as primary factors in its investment process. Prior to forming Life + Liberty Indexes, Perth was a private wealth advisor at Fidelity Investments in Los Angeles and Houston and had lived and worked in Beijing and Hong Kong, where her observations led her to explore the relationship between freedom and markets. .
Jonathan Miller Favorite Books
Fins: Harley Earl, the Rise of General Motors and the Glory Days of Detroit by William Knoedelseder To see also : What is home appreciation in real estate?.
The Judgment by David Halberstam