On a trip to Kyiv earlier this summer, I was struck by what was there that I expected not to be – young people sharing Aperol spritzes at a roadside cafe, municipal services such as collect trash and work with what wasn’t there. before it was everywhere in the capital of Ukraine—politics. The current crisis caused by Russia’s illegal and irrational war against Ukraine has produced popular images of the opposition. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s impressive courage, aided by excellent communication skills, has turned him into an almost Churchillian figure. And Zelensky is not alone. Ukrainians from all walks of life have come together to oppose the Russians, creating an undeniable sense of unity in a city accustomed to political battles that would make Washington feel sluggish.
Back in 2015, on a trip sometime, I asked a friend of mine in Kyiv why the Netflix show House of Cards was so popular among the Ukrainian elite. “Here, its portrayal of how politics works is understood as a documentary rather than a joke,” he replied slyly. One of the biggest mistakes of Russian President Vladimir Putin, foreshadowed by his false claim that Ukraine is not a real country, was his failure to understand that Ukraine is a democracy. – a dirty, classist, destructive democracy but a democracy nonetheless. In the years since Ukraine’s 2014 Revolution of Dignity, when protesters overthrew the pro-Russian government of President Viktor Yanukovych, the political culture has become more democratic: civil society has become more organized and strategic. to hold the government accountable, parliamentary elections are changing. the balance of power and leading to successful integration, celebrities shudder at aggressive media, and the vestiges of Homo Sovieticus, or the conformist “Soviet man”, are diminishing.
Last year, the political discourse in Ukraine was a hot mess. But at the end of June, no one I met wanted to criticize the government. It wasn’t that they thought everything was done perfectly. They only knew that even separatist sentiments would not help anyone but Moscow. For now, social cohesion and the necessary conditions of war have displaced politics.
The latest news that Zelensky fired the head of Ukraine’s intelligence service and the prosecutor general, whose office is responsible for, among other things, investigating more than 25,000 cases of crimes against Russia’s war, symbolizes a major political comeback in Ukraine. War cannot hold the inner demons forever. Like those who have power, who are at the front, who are harvesting grain where they have nowhere to put it, who are trying to continue their lives despite the war, and those who have fled their homes because of the war, all they think of the truth of eternal strife, mercy and gravel will give room for complaint.
When this happens, Ukraine will struggle with operational and reputational problems. The free hand that Zelensky had to manage the war will be reduced to some extent. What is more important, he and others will listen. Ukraine’s war effort depends on the high deployment of resources-soldiers and hardware-which requires the smart and quick use of intelligence and morale. All this becomes even more difficult if the Kyivans fight their battles without leading the war.
For now, social cohesion and the necessary conditions of war have displaced politics.
The return of politics will also suppress the international support of Ukraine, which is there-Ukraine will not continue to fight, therefore, to exist as an independent country without it. Russian leaders will seek to deepen divisions in Kyiv, and opposition parties in Western democracies will question the wisdom of helping Ukraine’s internally divided movement (Russia will add to these skeptical voices). This growing brutality will present a new, stronger challenge to Western leaders who want to maintain international support for Ukraine against increasingly difficult conditions.
But there are reasons to expect, even welcome, the return of political life in Ukraine. A political resurgence may complicate the country’s struggle, but it is not a sign of Ukraine’s failure. Rather, it is a reflection of the high levels of conflict and the broader struggle to define Ukraine’s future. The country has many important questions to answer. That is why even in the best case scenario – a successful transition of the Russian military and a solution that restores the borders before March 24 – politics will return.
Politics must come back. This is a country living under martial law, in fact. And when the war is over or, perhaps, when it is already within the geography and scale, Ukraine will not only have to be rebuilt, but, in a way, it will also have democracy. “Yes, we have to win, but we won’t win only by reversing this Russian attack. We win by keeping the institutions that will protect freedom and democracy for our country,” Oleksandra Matviichuk, a lawyer for the rights of personality Kyiv told me. The Ukrainian government and people will need to deal with many problems simultaneously in the coming months and years. It is not too late for Ukraine to start planning to meet those challenges or for its international partners to start thinking about how they can help.
BUILD BACK BETTER
The return of politics to Kyiv will bring at least three major tests for Ukrainian democracy. The most obvious is the regeneration of the body. Some of this must begin now: schools, hospitals, and houses destroyed in areas where the war has subsided must be rebuilt. The reconstruction effort shows the intention of the Ukrainian people to return and secure their future, helping to strengthen morale. This may interest you : Stuart Varney: Generational change is coming to US politics. But the talk of the Marshall Plan for Ukraine was more than the money would be. With construction costs expected to exceed $1 trillion, it would be foolish to expect subsidies to make up a large portion of the funding. Therefore, Ukraine will need to use extraordinary assistance from international financial institutions and attract private capital, which will require creative thinking with international partners on how to reduce risks for investors.
Another way to reassure investors would be to create special courts that can give predictable judgments in business matters, perhaps with the help of technical support from European and North American governments. Every decision to rebuild is a resource decision and, therefore, may be contested. As politics returns to Kyiv, Ukrainians must expect an acceleration of limited resources, and donors must push to involve local governments, civil society and industry in the reconstruction process.
Ukraine’s allies also need to prepare for morale building and people. The work of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine—established to investigate violations of human rights and international humanitarian law—and of the country’s chief prosecutor investigating war crimes will be critical. Allegations of war crimes do not heal the wounds that cannot be healed, but they help to make them suffer in society. An even more difficult test for the Ukrainian justice system will be to ensure accountability for wartime crimes committed by Ukrainian soldiers or corruption by Ukrainian officials responsible for key aspects of the war. These charges will be politically problematic but essential to protect democratic values and uphold the rule of law.
Finally, Ukraine and its partners must help millions of people displaced by the war to return home and rebuild their lives. Many have been deeply traumatized and will need psychological support that is difficult to provide, especially in the recent conflict environment. Politics will become embroiled in debates about how to treat the country’s immediate mental and physical health needs, as well as the long-term needs of the injured. Among the ruins, Ukrainians will have to do many things emotionally: to mourn what was and at the same time have the strength to think about the future. That’s a tough situation, and even when a true villain crosses the line, anger tends to find a target nearby. Ukrainians may find it difficult to avoid the trap of cheating.
THE OLIGARCH QUESTION
The second major test concerns the role of oligarchs in Ukrainian society. While many of Ukraine’s wealthiest businessmen provided strong personal and financial support during the war, those who amassed great wealth during the post-Soviet period have largely played a negative role. On the same subject : These are the best states for a healthy lifestyle. and the biggest in Ukrainian politics. For the past three decades, they have fueled corruption, undermined the rule of law, and hindered democratic progress and economic development.
International partners may be tempted to push Kyiv to try to marginalize the oligarchs completely in the post-war period. But to pursue this goal would be to deny the truth. The unfortunate truth is that Ukrainian oligarchs have the power to block change and destroy progress. Therefore, they must be enlisted in the reconstruction effort. This may require a willingness to give them moral (if not legal) amnesty for their past corruption or wrongdoing and make it clear that there will be no mass confiscation. . In exchange for keeping their wealth, these oligarchs must give their collective support for a new system without corruption. It will take a clever combination of carrots and sticks to sway them from the ways they have done for the past 30 years at the expense of the Ukrainian people. International partners can provide positive and negative influences to help the oligarchs make the right choice, but it must be the Ukrainian people who set expectations in public statements and private conversations.
WHAT WOULD CHURCHILL DO?
The last test of Ukraine’s democracy involves the country’s most respected president. Zelensky has shown undeniable courage. He helped people around the world see the war in Ukraine as their own. On the same subject : Ryan Kelley advances in Michigan politics, inter-party concerns arise. He gave encouragement, compassion, and righteous anger to his people in the right measures and at the right time. For all these reasons, the president of Ukraine has become an object of admiration around the world.
But the biggest challenge for Zelensky will come when the fighting subsides. In response to the Russian invasion, he sought emergency power, giving him political capital and leading to local political conflict. With politics out of the way for now, the president and his team can call the shots with little opposition or pressure. The 2019 presidential election has transformed Zelensky from a player to a president. The Russian war has turned him into a commander. To preserve Ukraine’s independent and democratic future, he must be prepared to return to being a democratically elected leader. Moreover, you must be prepared to accept the possibility that the country’s sorrows will manifest itself in anger, criticism, and complaints about its leader. However biased or unfair Zelensky may perceive those complaints, he will have to give up some wartime powers and may need to leave the political stage after the next election in 2024 to show his patience Ukrainian democracy and preservation of his heritage.
Zelensky will need to show leadership in the face of growing public criticism rather than mainstream support. Doing so will sting. There will be many voices around him that give good reasons for anti-democratic behavior, such as limiting freedom of expression, controlling the courts, or giving authority rights in the name of ts’ security, or attempting to install a hand-picked successor. There will be many good reasons to enforce control, but none of them will be as valid as the need to surrender to democracy, even if its logic is absurd.
The biggest problem for Zelensky will come when the fighting subsides.
Few leaders, especially those who have led their countries to war, have found it easy to give up power or position. George Washington’s example remains rare in American history and was strong enough to set a precedent that lasted a century and a half until another wartime president—Franklin Roosevelt—broke it. British Prime Minister Winston Churchill is admired for his courage in standing up for a cause and courage in the face of an evil opponent, but he was defeated in the election just two months after World War II ended. in Europe (and a month before Japan surrendered) . At the time, according to historian Roy Jenkins, Churchill’s wife, Clementine, suggested that his party’s defeat might be a blessing in disguise, to which Winston replied about it in the usual way of vomiting: “now it seems that it has successfully concealed itself.”
Zelensky should remember Churchill’s example, and maybe he too, will return in due course for a second term as the country’s leader. The people of Ukraine need and deserve a democratic state supported by and providing opportunity for a democratic society. Individual leaders can help build a nation, but they cannot change it.
A RACE AGAINST TIME
These challenges will diminish regardless of when they are felt. In a perfect world, Ukraine would deal with the war as long as it deals with politics. It is not of this world. As the number of combatants increases, as more civilians die from Russian rocket attacks, as rumors (well-founded or not) spread about frontline soldiers not getting the supplies they need due to poor planning or corruption, when soldiers return home in caskets. and wheelchairs, the pressure will increase. The public support that Zelensky currently enjoys will erode under the pressure of mass funerals for his compatriots.
Whether it is because of growing dissatisfaction with the burdens of war, military obstacles and morale gaps, or the agreement with Russia will feel weak compared to the sacrifices made by the Ukrainian people, anger and discontent they can return to Kyiv first. the post-war period arrived. And when they do, hatred and political strife will follow. The oligarchs will buy power through backroom deals and use their money to make political obstacles disappear. As long as Zelensky is riding high, he does not need the oligarchs to secure his position. But as politics intervenes, these figures will once again offer their services, and the old dependence between the official and the oligarchs will reappear.
Zelensky the war hero must become a more complex person before the war ends. The coming political return to Kyiv also poses a special challenge to Ukraine’s international partners, who need to be clear and disciplined in their messaging to Ukraine and its people. Ukraine has been struggling with an epidemic of official corruption, and the fight should not be a free pass. But Ukraine’s allies need to remember that Moscow will feed off and benefit from discussions focused on Ukraine’s weaknesses. More importantly, they must consider how such negotiations could undermine Western unity and domestic political support for Russia’s denial of violations of the basic rules of the international system. Ukraine’s cause is pure; its internal politics are not. The latter should not undermine the West’s commitment to the former, even if it presents practical problems.
Ukraine’s cause is pure; its internal politics are not.
While the political forces in Kyiv remain suspended, political pressures in many Western countries are increasing due to inflation and the energy crisis caused by the COVID-19 epidemic and war. Western leaders are saying that Ukraine is the vanguard of freedom and that Ukrainians are fighting not only for their country but for the free world. But very few of these leaders seem to believe what they say. To show that they do, they should increase military and financial support for Ukraine to help it achieve the best results in the war, and inevitably, in the settlement that will follow. They should also be ready to help the people of Ukraine realize their democracy again. Doing so is important, not only for them but also for the long struggle of human dignity that all democrats must surrender to.
On my way home from Ukraine, I stopped in Poland to meet up with an old friend. He was relieved to hear my thoughts on the current state of unity in Kyiv. “That’s a relief; they always fall in their politics,” he said about the Ukrainian people. The coming months are likely to be more difficult. The Ukrainian people must not only overcome Russian aggression but also the temptation to rebel.
