The conventional wisdom that Republicans were doing well in the middle of their term was not always confirmed in survey numbers that showed Democrats were leading many competitive Senate races across the country. This discrepancy is also reflected in the relatively large discrepancy between the FiveThirtyEight Lite and Deluxe medium-term forecasts.
In this part of “Model Talk” of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to do about it and answer audience questions about the forecast model. They also touch upon the health of the poll industry and how much President Biden’s success in the potential 2024 primaries depends on the Democrats’ mid-term performance.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above, or by downloading it from iTunes, ESPN, or your favorite podcasting platform. If you are new to podcasting, learn to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is taped on Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the program by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. You have a comment, question or suggestion for a “good survey vs. bad poll “? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.
Galen Druke is a producer and reporter of FiveThirtyEight podcasts. @Galendruke
Nate Silver is the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight. @ Natesilver538
