To be sure, the Democratic fortunes in the fall of 2018 were based on many factors, including the historical fact that the incumbent president’s party – in this case Donald Trump’s Republicans – generally do poorly in mid-term. But the poll was also clear that in tight contests, the controversy over Kavanaugh and abortion has moved the needle for Democrats.
In the wake of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision on Friday, many are wondering if there will be a similar impact this time around. While inflation and the economy are likely to remain the dominant issue on the domestic political agenda, polls suggest that Americans support the right to abortion.
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New England has a number of contested electoral contests this year, including a run for governor in all six states. And abortion could be a factor in some of the main ones.
Here are four ways the abortion ruling will impact New England politics in this mid-term election year and beyond.
Dobbs could save New Hampshire Senator Maggie Hassan’s reelection bid
The region’s highest-profile and most expensive competition this year will likely offer a choice between two candidates who differ widely on abortion. Read also : Know Your Rights: Reproductive Health Care.
The incumbent, Democratic US Senator from New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan, is pro-abortion right and has made it one of her core political tenets in her 20 years in politics. The top five Republicans running in the primary for the right to face it this fall all reiterated in a debate Monday night that they were against the right to abortion.
Hassan won the seat in 2016 with just 1,019 votes, the closest Senate election in the country that year. Leaning on support for abortion rights was a winning path for Democrats and Republicans in the recent elections in New Hampshire. Surveys over decades suggest that New Hampshire residents strongly support the right to abortion, at least until the third quarter.
Republicans will likely want to talk only about economics and inflation, but there may be no other Senate candidate in the country better placed to take political advantage of the backlash to Hassan’s Dobbs decision. In fact, it could be the problem that makes a difference to her.
The decision could be a defining issue in Rhode Island Democratic primaries
Rhode Island is blessed with two very interesting contests, an open race for the governor and an open race for Congress. On the same subject : Abortion rights groups take up the fight in the United States.
So far, contests have been driven by personality, the campaign’s ability to raise funds, and the eligibility of candidates. Dobbs’ decision injected a sense of mission and is a matter that candidates will have to convincingly tackle for the base.
Abortion politics can be complicated in a place like Rhode Island. While the state has policies that tend to be culturally liberal, the state is rarely at the forefront. For example, until recently the longtime Speaker of the House was a staunch opponent of the right to abortion. Rhode Island was also the last New England state to legalize same-sex marriage.
Abortion is now something that the five people running in the primary for the governor and the six people running in the primary for the Second Congressional District will have to face.
It could impact which New Englanders could run for president in 2024
If Joe Biden does not run for president, Dobbs’ decision could make it more likely that a woman will be the Democratic candidate in 2024. Democrats, like Republicans, are in the midst of an ideological and generational shift. On the same subject : With the end of Roe, Texans will have to travel long distances for legal abortions. Dobbs’ decision may focus the race more on restoring abortion rights, and women politicians may be more authentic about the democratic basis on the issue.
This is good news for Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren if she decides to run for president again. Warren was the first-placed female in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. In the wake of both the leaked draft opinion of Dobbs’ decision and last week’s actual decision, Warren has been a public face of the opposition nationwide.
Conversely, this decision doesn’t exactly open a third presidential race for Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. The need to address economic inequality has been at the heart of Sanders’ politics, not social issues, even though there is no light between his position and, for example, Warren.
On the Republican side, if Donald Trump wants to race again he can take a victory lap in the Republican primary of 2024, credibly claiming he was responsible for getting the majority on the pitch that overturned Roe.
New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu will likely be sidelined. Even on Tuesday morning in an interview with Punchbowl News, Sununu did not close the door to the presidential race in 2024. But Sununu is in favor of the choice and this could be a simply unpleasant position for a base that may be eager for a national ban on abortion to be approved under a Republican president.
Susan Collins is in a super-awkward position in Maine
In 2020, Collins became the first woman in history to win a fifth term in the United States Senate. It was a race that many thought he could not win.
Although he has had many tough votes in his career, his vote to confirm Kavanaugh to court in 2018 attracted a storm of criticism. When she was running for re-election in 2020, that vote made her re-election campaign tougher than ever.
Her answer then was simple: Kavanaugh had assured her that he would not overturn Roe. Well, last week he went ahead and voted to overthrow Roe, leaving Collins to say she was “misled”.
Who knows where all this leads? She would not be re-eligible until 2026, when she would have turned 74. It may be time to step away, but he’s still relatively young for the Senate. Kavanaugh may have vanished as a problem by then. Or perhaps the Roe decision will still resonate in New England.
James Pindell can be contacted at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell and on Instagram @jameswpindell.
Is abortion legal in germany?
Abortion in Germany is legal up to 12 weeks of pregnancy under the condition of mandatory counseling and is permitted later in pregnancy in cases where the pregnancy poses a major danger to the physical or mental health of the pregnant woman.
Is abortion legal in Italy?
Abortion in Italy became legal in May 1978, when Italian women were allowed to terminate a pregnancy on request during the first 90 days.
Is abortion legal in Paris?
Abortion in France is legal on demand during the first 14 weeks after conception.
How many countries have legal abortion? The following table lists in chronological order the member states of the United Nations that have legalized abortion on request at least in an early part of the pregnancy, or that have completely decriminalized abortion. As of June 2022, 64 countries legalized or decriminalized abortion on demand.
Is abortion now illegal in the US?
Abortion in the United States is subject to individual state abortion regulations. In 1973, Roe v. Wade filed the first abortion case with the Supreme Court, which had made it federal legal. In 2022 it was overturned and abortions are now again subject to regulations based on state laws.
