I addressed political influence in part in a previous column. But the actions of the court in this case can do little more than just affect this year’s election.
The reputation of the Supreme Court itself is at stake, and the decision to get rid of Roe v. Wade and upset the status quo comes at a very sensitive time for judges in another court: the Court of Public Opinion.
And here we will begin our look at the news of the week through the numbers.
The Supreme Court is not elected by the electorate. Many people, however, agree that it is important for the court to maintain its legitimacy in the eyes of the public. After all, the court relies on others to enforce its judgments.
The legitimacy of the High Court in the minds of the public was already at a very low level, even before Roe was overturned – something most Americans did not want.
Forty-one percent of voters approved of the work being done by the Supreme Court, a May Quinnipiac University poll found. The majority (52%) did not approve them. This was the highest rating of disapproval recorded by Quinnipiac since it began questioning the court’s approval in 2004.
The court’s position is a reversal from what it was two years ago, when 52% of voters in Quinnipiac polls approved and 37% disapproved.
Quinnipiac is not the only interviewer to have shown a major deterioration in the court’s position. The percentage of Americans (25%) who have more or less confidence in the court is at the lowest level Gallup has ever recorded since 1973.
Malt can be attributed primarily to Democrats. Today, 78% of Democrats disapprove of the work done by the court, Quinnipiac says. In 2020, only 43% did. Republican disapproval of the court has dropped from 38% two years ago to 28% now.
The reason why the public and Democrats have turned against the Supreme Court is pretty clear: they see it as increasingly political and making decisions that are unpopular.
The aforementioned Quinnipiac poll found that only 34% of voters believe the court is mainly motivated by law. The majority (62%) believe that the Supreme Court is motivated primarily by politics. Four years ago, the division was much more even, with 50% saying the court was motivated primarily by politics, and 42% saying it was motivated primarily by law.
Again, this trend is driven by Democrats. Eighty-two percent told Quinnipiac that the court was motivated primarily by politics. That’s from 60% in 2018. Republicans who said the same has changed, from 46% in 2018 to 42% now.
One would be to treat the court as activist and make popular decisions. Ni. Gallup and Quinnipiac polls were conducted after word leaked in May that the court was on the verge of overturning Roe.
Americans agreed with Roe’s 1973 ruling. A May poll by NBC News found that 63% of them don’t want Roe overturned. In fact, every poll I know showed a clear majority of Americans for Roe.
This was almost always the case, until 1973, when 52% voted in favor of the decision in a Louis Harris poll & amp; coworkers.
In fact, I’m not sure I remember another controversial and consequential Supreme Court decision that was so unpopular.
Surveys showed a split in the public when in 2012 the court largely upheld the Affordable Care Act.
A majority of Americans (54%) were in favor of the court stopping the manual recount in Florida, which actually ended the 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, a CBS News poll at the time showed.
A majority (55%) also approved the court ‘s decision to remove public schools in Brown v. 1954 in the Education Committee.
One could argue that what the Supreme Court did in overturning Roe is unprecedented in terms of public opinion.
What effect it will have in the end, however, has not yet been determined.
Record midterm turnout looks possible
One possible impact of the latest Supreme Court ruling is that it could increase the likelihood that people will go to the polls – in a cycle in which turnout is already very high. This may interest you : Shaye Moss and Ruby Freeman: January 6 witnesses expose threat to democracy.
In other words, we can expect a second consecutive interim term with record attendance.
By Tuesday, voter turnout had increased by 13% in countries that have voted so far compared to this point in 2018. (This does not include countries where party turnout was not available nationwide for either 2018 or for 2022)
Turnout in 2018 was higher than in 2014 and 2010. In fact, 2018 saw the highest turnout – as a percentage of the population eligible to vote – in more than a century.
High voter turnout should come as no surprise given what we saw in Virginia last year or in elections so far this cycle. The competitive election of the governor of Virginia in 2021 had the highest turnout in the off-year election in the Commonwealth at least since the mid-1990s.
In addition, more voters this year are extremely enthusiastic about voting than in 2010 or 2014, CNN / SSRS research shows. And that tremendous enthusiasm matches how voters felt at this point in 2018.
After a slightly different measurement, ABC News / Washington Post polls showed that at this point in the interim cycle, more voters said they would definitely vote in November than at similar points in the 2010, 2014 or 2018 cycles.
I must point out that in all these measures of voter turnout, Republicans were better than Democrats. Turnout in the Republican primary elections increased by 28% compared to 2018, while in the Democratic elections it decreased by 2%. According to opinion polls, Republicans are more enthusiastic and will certainly prove to be Democrats.
The fall of Roe could change this dynamic at least a little. A majority of Democrats (55%) said in a May Kaiser Family Foundation poll that they would be more motivated to run in the midterm elections if Roe were repealed. Only 23% of Republicans said the same.
In other words, Roe’s overthrow means we may not just be looking at the record turnout of Republicans in November. Democrats may not be too far behind.
For your brief encounters: School ends in the nation’s largest city
Many students, from kindergarten to 12th grade, have been on summer vacation for some time. This is not the case in New York, where the last school day is Monday.
For most elementary school students, 2015 Gallup surveys show there will be little sadness. Most of them feel that the school is engaging them. See the article : Politics in Two: January 6, Supreme Court and Gun Legislation. The opposite is true for high school students, who mostly feel bored.
Editorial Note: This writer always felt ecstatic at the end of school, no matter the class. He hated school and never, ever wanted to go back.
Leftover polls
U.S. Impact: A new Pew Research Center survey finds that 47% of Americans believe the country’s influence in the world is declining, and 19% believe it is getting stronger. To see also : Emergency Policy Podcast: Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade. The majority (66%) believe that China’s influence is growing.
Smartphone badge: A recent Gallup poll shows that 58% of Americans say they spend too much time on smartphones, and about 65% say the devices have made their lives at least a little better.
Problems with Trump: Former President Donald Trump has led in all national or early primary polls since February 2016. This series ended when Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced an advantage within the margin of error (39% vs. 37%) in a previous weekly New Hampshire University poll among likely voters in the 2024 GOP election.
